Progress in Predictability Studies in China （2003-2006）

Since the last International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics General Assembly(2003),predictability studies in China have made significant progress.For dynamic forecasts,two novel approaches of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation and nonlinear local Lyapunov exponents were proposed to cope with the predictability problems of weather and climate,which are superior to the corresponding linear theory.A possible mechanism for the"spring predictability barrier"phenomenon for the El Ni(?)o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)was provided based on a theoretical model.To improve the forecast skill of an intermediate coupled ENSO model,a new initialization scheme was developed,and its applicability was illustrated by hindcast experiments.Using the reconstruction phase space theory and the spatio-temporal series predictive method, Chinese scientists also proposed a new approach to improve dynamical extended range(monthly)prediction and successfully applied it to the monthly-scale predictability of short-term climate variations.In statistical forecasts,it was found that the effects of sea surface temperature on precipitation in China have obvious spatial and temporal distribution features,and that summer precipitation patterns over east China are closely related to the northern atmospheric circulation.For ensemble forecasts,a new initial perturbation method was used to forecast heavy rain in Guangdong and Fujian Provinces on 8 June 1998.Additionally, the ensemble forecast approach was also used for the prediction of a tropical typhoons.A new downscaling model consisting of dynamical and statistical methods was provided to improve the prediction of the monthly mean precipitation.This new downsealing model showed a relatively higher score than the issued operational forecast.     

“3S”集成技术在“精准土地”调查中的应用研究

本文探讨了土地变更调查常用方法在应用中的一些不足,简要介绍了综合“3S”集成技术的“精准土地”调查的原理和流程,并对应用中出现的坐标系统转换和精度偏移等问题进行了研究。     

基于遥感技术的城市扩展变化研究

以1975年的MSS影像、1992年的TM影像和2004年的中巴资源卫星影像为数据源,对北京市建成区近30 a的扩展变化进行动态监测,运用计算机监督分类技术提取了北京市建成区30 a来的扩展变化信息,并分析出北京市建成区的变化是以老市区为中心向四周辐射蔓延的规律,为北京市未来城市规划与开发提供参考。     

濮阳近50a风速变化特征及突变分析

利用线性分析方法,分析了濮阳近50 a平均风速、大风日数的变化特征,并利用滑动的t检验法分析了风速突变,结果显示:年平均风速以0.498(m/s)/10 a的倾向率减少,大风和扬沙日数分别以2.7 d/10 a和5.6 d/10 a的倾向率减少;平均风速,大风、扬沙日数在20世纪80年代初期发生突变。     

Building comparable global change vulnerability assessments: The vulnerability scoping diagram

Advancing vulnerability science depends in part on identifying common themes from multiple, independent vulnerability assessments. Such insights are difficult to produce when the assessments use dissimilar, often qualitative, measures. The Vulnerability Scoping Diagram is presented to facilitate the comparison of assessments with dissimilar measures. The diagram is illustrated with recent research on drought vulnerabilities, showing that common insights into vulnerability may emerge if independent research teams use a common structure for organizing information about exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity—even if the underlying measures differ between assessments. Broadly adopting this technique, which is grounded in the “Eight Steps” methodological protocol [Schröter, D., Polsky, C., Patt, A., 2005. Assessing vulnerabilities to the effects of global change: an eight step approach. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10(4), 573–595], will enable a vulnerability meta-analysis, the lessons from which may permit places to identify helpful adaptation or mitigation options without first having to conduct their own vulnerability assessments.     

Mistreatment of the economic impacts of extreme events in the Stern Review Report on the Economics of Climate Change

The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change has focused debate on the costs and benefits of alternative courses of action on climate change. This refocusing has helped to move debate away from science of the climate system and on to issues of policy. However, a careful examination of the Stern Review's treatment of the economics of extreme events in developed countries, such as floods and tropical cyclones, shows that the report is selective in its presentation of relevant impact studies and repeats a common error in impacts studies by confusing sensitivity analyses with projections of future impacts. The Stern Review's treatment of extreme events is misleading because it overestimates the future costs of extreme weather events in developed countries by an order of magnitude. Because the Stern Report extends these findings globally, the overestimate propagates through the report's estimate of future global losses. When extreme events are viewed more comprehensively the resulting perspective can be used to expand the scope of choice available to decision makers seeking to grapple with future disasters in the context of climate change. In particular, a more comprehensive analysis underscores the importance of adaptation in any comprehensive portfolio of responses to climate change.     

Some economics of ‘dangerous’ climate change: Reflections on the Stern Review

The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be “no doubt” the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are “very severe” [Stern, 2006. The Economics of Climate Change. HM Treasury, London, p. 188]. The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off, permanent 5–20% loss in global mean per-capita consumption today. And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p. 344]. Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature. Subsequently, a number of critiques have appeared, arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy. Discounting is important, but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty, and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probability/high-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of ‘dangerous’ climate change), can matter just as much. We demonstrate these arguments empirically, using the same models applied in the Stern Review. Together, the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand, and ‘dangerous’ climate change on the other, raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach, where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate. Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling. There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling, bringing together scientific ‘fact’ and value judgement systematically. But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates. Ironically, the Stern Review is one of those voices. A fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should, and are, built on broader foundations.     

Climatic change during the last 4000 years in the southern Tarim Basin,Xinjiang, northwest China

In this study, a ca. 4000 cal. yr ancient lacustrine (or wetland) sediment record at the southern margin of Tarim Basin is used to reconstruct the history of climate change. Six radiocarbon dates on organic matter were obtained. δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C of carbonate, pollen and sediment particle size were analysed for climate proxies. The proxies indicate that a drier climate prevailed in the area before ca. 1010 BC and during period 1010 BC–AD 500 climate then changed rapidly and continuously from dry to moist, but after about AD 500 climate generally shows dry condition. Several centennial‐scale climatic events were revealed, with the wettest spell during AD 450–550, and a relatively wetter interval between AD 930–1030. Pollen results show that regional climate may influence human agricultural activities. Spectral analysis of mean grain size (MGS) proxy reveals statistically pronounced cyclic signals, such as ca. 200 yr, ca. 120 yr, ca. 90 yr, ca. 45 yr and ca. 33 or 30 yr, which may be associated with solar activities, implying that solar variability plays an important role in the decadal‐ and centennial‐scale climate variations in the study area. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Environmental change recorded in sediments from the Marmes rockshelter archaeological site, southeastern Washington state, USA

The Marmes Rockshelter archaeological site in southeastern Washington state contains a > 11 kyr stratigraphic record that was excavated in the 1960s but only recently analyzed in detail. We present the results of physical, chemical, and isotopic analyses of archived Marmes sediments from rockshelter, hillslope, and floodplain locations. Multiple lines of evidence including éboulis production, soil chemistry, and δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O signatures in soil organic matter and calcium carbonate suggest that relatively cool, moist conditions 10,600 to 9700 ¹⁴C yr BP were followed by relatively warm and dry conditions as early as 9000 ¹⁴C yr BP. Warm and dry conditions extended to the late Holocene, followed by a return to cooler and moister climate. The limited range of δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O values in Marmes paleosols suggests that the magnitude of moisture and temperature shifts was locally buffered in the lower Snake River Canyon but adequate to generate significant changes in sedimentation and soil formation, possibly due to nonlinear geological and pedological processes. These buffered canyon environments were well suited for establishing residential bases associated with foraging and logistical collecting strategies and may have minimized the influence of climate changes in food resource abundance.     

The future of industrial cities and regions in central and eastern Europe

Economic transition in central and eastern Europe (CEE) has had a particularly strong impact on industrial cities and regions. Following their economic collapse, most of them are now confronted with serious problems such as high unemployment and vast ecological damage. The paper presents findings from a pan European research project that investigated the problems of these cities and regions as well as the strategies being adopted to cope with structural change. It examines the differences in approaches and addresses the question whether existing EU policy is suitable for supporting the redevelopment of old industrial cities and regions in CEE countries. The paper concludes with recommendations for future directions in policy making.