Characterizing rainfall–groundwater dynamics in a hard‐rock aquifer system using time series,geographic information system and geostatistical modelling

The aim of this study was to investigate rainfall–groundwater dynamics over space and annual time scales in a hard‐rock aquifer system of India by employing time series, geographic information system and geostatistical modelling techniques. Trends in 43‐year (1965–2007) annual rainfall time series of ten rainfall stations and 16‐year (1991–2006) pre‐monsoon and post‐monsoon groundwater levels of 140 sites were identified by using Mann–Kendall, Spearman rank order correlation and Kendall rank correlation tests. Trends were quantified by Kendall slope method. Furthermore, the study involves novelty of examining homogeneity of pre‐monsoon and post‐monsoon groundwater levels, for the first time, by applying seven tests. Regression analysis between rainfall and post‐monsoon groundwater levels was performed. The pre‐monsoon and post‐monsoon groundwater levels for four periods – 1991–1994, 1995–1998, 1999–2002 and 2003–2006 – were subjected to geographic information system‐based geostatistical modelling. The rainfall showed considerable spatiotemporal variations, with a declining trend at the Mavli rainfall station (p‐value < 0.05). The Levene's tests revealed spatial homogeneity of rainfall at α = 0.05. Regression analyses indicated significant relationships (r² > 0.5) between groundwater level and rainfall for eight rainfall stations. Non‐homogeneity and declining trends in the groundwater level, attributed to anthropogenic and hydrologic factors, were found at 5–61 more sites in pre‐monsoon compared with post‐monsoon season. The groundwater declining rates in phyllite–schist, gneiss, schist and granite formations were found to be 0.18, 0.26, 0.21 and 0.14 m year^?1 and 0.13, 0.19, 0.16 and 0.02 m year^?1 during the pre‐monsoon and post‐monsoon seasons, respectively. The geostatistical analyses for four time periods revealed linkages between the rainfall and groundwater levels. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The role of baseflow in dissolved solids delivery to streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Salinity has a major effect on water users in the Colorado River Basin, estimated to cause almost $300 million per year in economic damages. The Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Program implements and manages projects to reduce salinity loads, investing millions of dollars per year in irrigation upgrades, canal projects, and other mitigation strategies. To inform and improve mitigation efforts, there is a need to better understand sources of salinity to streams and how salinity has changed over time. This study explores salinity in the baseflow fraction of streamflow, assessing whether groundwater is a significant contributor of dissolved solids to streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Chemical hydrograph separation was used to estimate baseflow discharge and baseflow dissolved solids loads at stream gages (n = 69) across the UCRB. On average, it is estimated that 89% of dissolved solids loads originate from the baseflow fraction of streamflow, indicating that subsurface transport processes play a dominant role in delivering dissolved solids to streams in the UCRB. A statistical trend analysis using weighted regressions on time, discharge, and season was used to evaluate changes in baseflow dissolved solids loads in streams (n = 27) from 1986 to 2011. Decreasing trends in baseflow dissolved solids loads were observed at 63% of streams. At the three most downstream sites, Green River at Green River, UT, Colorado River at Cisco, UT, and the San Juan River near Bluff, UT, baseflow dissolved solids loads decreased by a combined 823,000 metric tons (mT), which is approximately 69% of projected basin‐scale decreases in total dissolved solids loads as a result of salinity control efforts. Decreasing trends in baseflow dissolved solids loads suggest that salinity mitigation projects, landscape changes, and/or climate are reducing dissolved solids transported to streams through the subsurface. Notably, the pace and extent of decreases in baseflow dissolved solids loads declined during the most recent decade; average decreasing loads during the 2000s (28,200 mT) were only 54% of average decreasing loads in the 1990s (51,700 mT).     

Characterisation of hydroclimatological trends and variability in the Lake Naivasha basin,Kenya

Recent hydro‐climatological trends and variability characteristics were investigated for the Lake Naivasha basin with the aim of understanding the changes in water balance components and their evolution over the past 50 years. Using a Bayesian change point analysis and modified Mann–Kendall tests, time series of annual mean, maximum, minimum, and seasonal precipitation and flow, as well as annual mean lake volumes, were analysed for the period 1960–2010 to uncover possible abrupt shifts and gradual trends. Double cumulative curve analysis was used to investigate the changes in hydrological response attributable to either human influence or climatic variability. The results indicate a significant decline in lake volumes at a mean rate of 9.35 × 10⁶ m³ year^?1. Most of the river gauging stations showed no evidence of trends in the annual mean and maximum flows as well as seasonal flows. Annual minimum flows, however, showed abrupt shifts and significant (upward/downward) trends at the main outlet stations. Precipitation in the basin showed no evidence of abrupt shifts, but a few stations showed gradual decline. The observed changes in precipitation could not explain the decline in both minimum flows and lake volumes. The findings show no evidence of any impact of climate change for the Lake Naivasha basin over the past 50 years. This implies that other factors, such as changes in land cover and infrastructure development, have been responsible for the observed changes in streamflow and lake volumes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long‐term streamflow trends in Hawai'i and implications for native stream fauna

Climate change has fundamentally altered the water cycle in tropical islands, which is a critical driver of freshwater ecosystems. To examine how changes in streamflow regime have impacted habitat quality for native migratory aquatic species, we present a 50‐year (1967–2016) analysis of hydrologic records in 23 unregulated streams across the five largest Hawaiian Islands. For each stream, flow was separated into direct run‐off and baseflow and high‐ and low‐flow statistics (i.e., Q10 and Q90) with ecologically important hydrologic indices (e.g., frequency of flooding and low flow duration) derived. Using Mann–Kendall tests with a running trend analysis, we determined the persistence of streamflow trends through time. We analysed native stream fauna from ~400 sites, sampled from 1992 to 2007, to assess species richness among islands and streams. Declines in streamflow metrics indicated a general drying across the islands. In particular, significant declines in low flow conditions (baseflows), were experienced in 57% of streams, compared with a significant decline in storm flow conditions for 22% of streams. The running trend analysis indicated that many of the significant downward trends were not persistent through time but were only significant if recent decades (1987–2016) were included, with an average decline in baseflow and run‐off of 10.90% and 8.28% per decade, respectively. Streams that supported higher native species diversity were associated with moderate discharge and baseflow index, short duration of low flows, and negligible downward trends in flow. A significant decline in dry season flows (May–October) has led to an increase in the number of no‐flow days in drier areas, indicating that more streams may become intermittent, which has important implications for mauka to makai (mountain to ocean) hydrological connectivity and management of Hawai'i's native migratory freshwater fauna.     

地理国情普查时点核准作业方法探讨

通过核实从数据采集到标准时点阶段发生变化的内容,补充新增内容,消除普查前阶段由于资料时效性和外业局限性等导致的现势性不统一现象,对变化的地理国情信息进行核准,使地理国情普查数据成果在时间上达到统一,是开展地理国情监测的基础。     

基于AutoCAD的天津测绘生产系统设计与实现

城市测量的种类多且内业成果复杂,天津对各项内业成果都有特定的要求,急需一个统一的生产平台。通过对勘测定界、地籍等9类项目进行分析,规范了生产制作流程,制定了描述多种数据格式的标准,设计了系统结构,在AutoCAD基础上开发实现了天津测绘生产自动化系统。系统以项目工程为单元对成果数据进行管理,实现了标准化生产。     

Long-Term Variability of the Wind Field over the Indian Ocean Based on ERA-Interim Reanalysis

A detailed study of long-term variability of winds using 30 years of data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts global reanalysis (ERA-Interim) over the Indian Ocean has been carried out by partitioning the Indian Ocean into six zones based on local wind extrema. The trend of mean annual wind speed averaged over each zone shows a significant increase in the equatorial region, the Southern Ocean, and the southern part of the trade winds. This indicates that the Southern Ocean winds and the southeast trade winds are becoming stronger. However, the trend for the Bay of Bengal is negative, which might be caused by a weakening of the monsoon winds and northeast trade winds. Maximum interannual variability occurs in the Arabian Sea due to monsoon activity; a minimum is observed in the subtropical region because of the divergence of winds. Wind speed variations in all zones are weakly correlated with the Dipole Mode Index (DMI). However, the equatorial Indian Ocean, the southern part of the trade winds, and subtropical zones show a relatively strong positive correlation with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), indicating that the SOI has a zonal influence on wind speed in the Indian Ocean. Monsoon winds have a decreasing trend in the northern Indian Ocean, indicating monsoon weakening, and an increasing trend in the equatorial region because of enhancement of the westerlies. The negative trend observed during the non-monsoon period could be a result of weakening of the northeast trade winds over the past few decades. The mean flux of kinetic energy of wind (FKEW) reaches a minimum of about 100?W?m^?2 in the equatorial region and a maximum of about 1500?W?m^?2 in the Southern Ocean. The seasonal variability of FKEW is large, about 1600?W?m^?2, along the coast of Somalia in the northern Indian Ocean. The maximum monthly variability of the FKEW field averaged over each zone occurs during boreal summer. During the onset and withdrawal of monsoon, FKEW is as low as 50?W?m^?2. The Southern Ocean has a large variation of about 1280?W?m^?2 because of strong westerlies throughout the year.     

基于均一化资料的中国大陆极端温度的长期趋势

近百年来,全球气候变暖。这与暖日和暖夜增加,冷日和冷夜减少相关联。文章研究结果进一步证实了这一发现。本文基于1960-2012年中国大陆542个台站均一化气温资料,通过将中国大陆划分为8个次区域,利用百分位定义法计算了极端温度指数序列,同时,运用时间趋势分析法,对中国大陆各区域极端温度和极端温度指数的时空分布及变化趋势特征进行了分析。结果表明:在全球变暖的背景下,从地理分布而言,中国大陆在过去53年除西南地区外,大部分地区最低和最高温度有显著的升高趋势,其中,东北温度升高最为明显;从季节而言,冬季极端温度升高最为明显,夏季升高最少;最低温度明显升高,最高温度也有所升高,但是最低温度的升高幅度更大。冷夜和冷日出现频率呈减少趋势,暖夜和暖日出现频率呈增加趋势,其中以冷夜指数变化最为突出,均呈现一种区域差异的现象。本文利用更新的资料验证了前人的工作,也进一步分区分析,结果可为更多地区评估以及进一步的相关研究提供参考。     

新疆哈密地区近54a日照时数的均一性分析及其影响因素

以新疆哈密地区1961-2014年6个气象观测站地面气象观测资料为依据,利用线性趋势分析、相关性分析、M-K突变检验分析等方法,对哈密地区近54a四季及年平均日照时数的变化趋势、异常年份、突变检验及影响因子进行分析,得出以下结论：近54a哈密地区春季与年平均日照时数均呈上升趋势,而夏、秋、冬季变化比较平稳;年日照时数异常偏少出现在1998年,但从未出现过异常偏多年;年日照时数在1973年和2008年发生两次突变,减少、增加趋势不显著;年、春季日照时数增加与低云量的减少关系密切。     

Development and Utilization of the World’s and China’s Bulk Mineral Resources and their Supply and Demand Situation in the Next Twenty Years

Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world’s and China’s economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world’s and China’s supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources(especially iron ores and copper ores) are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserveproduction ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world’s six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015–2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4–0.7 billion tons(Gt), 5.0–6.0 million tons(Mt), 1.1–8.9 Mt, 1.0–2.0 Mt, 1.2–2.0 Mt and 4.8–5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China’s compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores(crude steel), potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores(crude steel) will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassium salt, 2020 for refined lead, 2021 for bauxite(primary aluminum), 2022 for refined copper and 2023 for zinc. China’s demand for iron ores(crude steel), bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc in the future 20 years will decline among the world’s demand, while that for refined copper, refined lead and potassium salt will slightly increase. The demand for bulk mineral products still remains high. In 2015–2035, China’s accumulative demand for iron ores(crude steel) will be 20.313 Gt(13.429 Gt), 0.304 Gt for refined copper, 2.466 Gt(0.616 Gt) of bauxite(primary aluminum), 0.102 Gt of refined lead, 0.138 Gt of zinc and 0.157 Gt of potassium salt, and they account for the world’s YOY(YOY) accumulative demand of 35.17%, 51.09%, 48.47%, 46.62%, 43.95% and 21.84%, respectively. This proportion is 49.40%, 102.52%, 87.44%, 105.65%, 93.62% and 106.49% of that in 2014, respectively. From the supply side of China’s bulk mineral resources, it is forecasted that the accumulative supply of primary(mine) mineral products in 2015–2035 is 4.046 Gt of iron ores, 0.591 Gt of copper,1.129 Gt of bauxite, 63.661 Mt of(mine) lead, 0.109 Gt of(mine) zinc and 0.128 Gt of potassium salt, which accounts for 8.82%, 13.92%, 26.67%, 47.09%, 33.04% and 15.56% of the world’s predicted YOY production, respectively. With the rapid increase in the smelting capacity of iron and steel and alumina, the rate of capacity utilization for crude steel, refined copper, alumina, primary aluminum and refined lead in 2014 was 72.13%, 83.63%, 74.45%, 70.76% and 72.22%, respectively. During 2000–2014, the rate of capacity utilization for China’s crude steel and refined copper showed a generally fluctuating decrease, which leads to an insufficient supply of primary mineral products. It is forecasted that the supply insufficiency of iron ores in 2015–2035 is 17.44 Gt, 0.245 Gt of copper in copper concentrates, 1.337 Gt of bauxite, 38.44 Mt of lead in lead concentrates and 29.19 Mt of zinc in zinc concentrates. China has gradually raised the utilization of recycled metals, which has mitigated the insufficient supply of primary metal products to some extent. It is forecasted that in 2015–2035 the accumulative utilization amount of steel scrap(iron ores) is 3.27 Gt(5.08 Gt), 70.312 Mt of recycled copper, 0.2 Gt of recycled aluminum, 48 Mt of recycled lead and 7.7 Mt of recycled zinc. The analysis on the supply and demand situation of China’s bulk mineral resources in 2015–2035 suggests that the supply-demand contradiction for these six types of mineral products will decrease, indicative of a generally declining external dependency. If the use of recycled metal amount is counted in, the external dependency of China’s iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc and potassium salt will be 79%, 65%, 26%, 8%, 16% and 18% in 2014, respectively. It is predicted that this external dependency will decrease to 62%, 64%, 20%,-0.93%, 16% and 14% in 2020, respectively, showing an overall decreasing trend. We propose the following suggestions correspondingly.(1) The demand peak of China’s crude steel and potassium salt will reach during 2015–2023 in succession. Mining transformation should be planned and deployed in advance to deal with the arrival of this demand peak.(2) The supply-demand contradiction of China’s bulk mineral resources will mitigate in the future 20 years, and the external dependency will decrease accordingly. It is suggested to adjust the mineral resources management policies according to different minerals and regions, and regulate the exploration and development activities.(3) China should further establish and improve the forced mechanism of resolving the smelting overcapacity of steel, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc to really achieve the goal of "reducing excess production capacity".(4) In accordance with the national strategic deployment of "One Belt One Road", China should encourage the excess capacity of steel, copper, alumina and primary aluminum enterprises to transfer to those countries or areas with abundant resources, high energy matching degree and relatively excellent infrastructure. Based on the national conditions, mining condition and geopolitics of the resources countries, we will gradually build steel, copper, aluminum and lead-zinc smelting bases, and potash processing and production bases, which will promote the excess capacity to transfer to the overseas orderly.(5) It is proposed to strengthen the planning and management of renewable resources recycling and to construct industrial base of renewable metal recycling.(6) China should promote the comprehensive development and utilization of paragenetic and associated mineral species to further improve the comprehensive utilization of bulk mineral resources.