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41.
基于物方影像匹配和概率松弛的断面自动提取   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
提出了基于物方影像匹配的断面提取,为了提高匹配的可靠性,引入了概率松弛法,最终获得了高精度的断面.  相似文献   
42.
利用太原地区发生的798个地质灾害个例和汛期降水资料,从地质环境背景着手,在地理信息系统(MAPGIS)支持下,对太原地质灾害危险性区划和诱发因素进行了系统研究。提出了精细的地质环境概率量化评价方法,得出了地质灾害影响因素的重要结论。建立了地质灾害预报模型,制定了预报等级标准和预报规则。经业务试验,预报结果与实况基本吻合。  相似文献   
43.
Landslides are common natural hazards in the seismically active North Anatolian Fault Zone of Turkey. Although seismic activity, heavy rainfall, channel incisions, and anthropogenic effects are commonly the main triggers of landslides, on March 17, 2005, a catastrophic large landslide in Sivas, northeastern of Turkey, the Kuzulu landslide, was triggered by snowmelt without any other precursor. The initial failure of the Kuzulu landslide was rotational. Following the rotational failure, the earth material in the zone of accumulation exhibited an extremely rapid flow caused by steep gradient and high water content. The Agnus Creek valley, where Kuzulu village is located, was filled by the earth-flow material and a landslide dam was formed on the upper part of Agnus Creek. The distance from the toe of the rotational failure down to the toe of the earth flow measured more than 1800 m, with about 12.5 million m3 of displaced earth material. The velocity of the Kuzulu landslide was extremely fast, approximately 6 m/s. The main purposes of this study are to describe the mechanism and the factors conditioning the Kuzulu landslide, to present its environmental impacts, and to produce landslide-susceptibility maps of the Kuzulu landslide area and its near vicinity. For this purpose, a detailed landslide inventory map was prepared and geology, slope, aspect, elevation, topographic-wetness index and stream-power index were considered as conditioning factors. During the susceptibility analyses, the conditional probability approach was used and a landslide-susceptibility map was produced. The landslide-susceptibility map will help decision makers in site selection and the site-planning process. The map may also be accepted as a basis for landslide risk-management studies to be applied in the study area.  相似文献   
44.
Accepting the concept of standardization introduced by the standardized precipitation index, similar methodologies have been developed to construct some other standardized drought indices such as the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). In this study, the authors provided deep insight into the SPEI and recognized potential deficiencies/limitations in relating to the climatic water balance it used. By coupling another well‐known Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), we proposed a new standardized Palmer drought index (SPDI) through a moisture departure probabilistic approach, which allows multi‐scalar calculation for accurate temporal and spatial comparison of the hydro‐meteorological conditions of different locations. Using datasets of monthly precipitation, temperature and soil available water capacity, the moisture deficit/surplus was calculated at multiple temporal scales, and a couple of techniques were adopted to adjust corresponding time series to a generalized extreme value distribution out of several candidates. Results of the historical records (1900–2012) for diverse climates by multiple indices showed that the SPDI was highly consistent and correlated with the SPEI and self‐calibrated PDSI at most analysed time scales. Furthermore, a simple experiment of hypothetical temperature and/or precipitation change scenarios also verified the effectiveness of this newly derived SPDI in response to climate change impacts. Being more robust and preferable in spatial consistency and comparability as well as combining the simplicity of calculation with sufficient accounting of the physical nature of water supply and demand relating to droughts, the SPDI is promising to serve as a competent reference and an alternative for drought assessment and monitoring. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
45.
由年最大值抽样(AMS)和年超大值抽样(AES)的基本理论及重现期(RP)的定义可知,AMS并不符合以“事件”为基础的重现期的定义.以美国西南半干旱区1438个雨量站和太湖流域96个雨量站的降雨资料为例,通过经验频率与超过概率的比较,发现AMS估算的暴雨频率设计值偏小,尤其是对常遇频率降雨设计值的影响更加显著.美国的降雨量资料站点多、系列长,实际资料验证与理论分析一致.通过对太湖流域AMS资料的分布形态进行分析的结果表明:太湖流域的站点不多,资料长度不够,且大部分站点在雨量大值区数据稀少,使得频率直方图不连续,是造成我国太湖流域的资料验证效果不理想的可能原因.  相似文献   
46.
利用NASA行星数据系统提供Apollo计划登月点采样线路影像数据,通过与嫦娥二号CCD数据、印度M~3数据空间校正获得采样路线坐标。开展嫦娥二号CCD数据与印度M~3数据MAP(后验概率)融合并选择Apollo 15、Apollo 16-62231的LSCC测得的标准岩石双向反射率光谱与M~3、嫦娥二号进行交叉定标。本文采用月球岩石光谱谱型全特征分析方法,选取涵盖Apollo计划登月获取的36个基站主要岩性87种、285件岩石样品,利用校正后的M~3数据分析月球典型岩石各阶吸收反射特征,建立月球典型岩石标准遥感影像光谱库,此后应用Apollo 623个岩石样品进行对比得到很好结果,同时完成Apollo 16登月点周围领域岩性分布图,并讨论了研究区的岩石成因,Apollo 16区域形成于高地大撞击,在早期的研究中已经被用于划分月球年代,本文方法对于月球岩石类别研究与理解月球的岩浆演化具有重要的研究价值。  相似文献   
47.
Considering the actual seaway condition, stability and capsizing of nonlinear ship rolling system in stochastic beam seas is of significant importance for voyage safety. Safe zone are defined in the phase space plan of the unperturbed Hamilton system to qualitatively distinguish ship motions as capsize and noncapsize. Capsize events are defined by solutions passing out of the safe zone. The probability of such an occurrence is studied by virtue of the random Melnikov function and the concept of phase space flux. In this paper, besides conventional wave excitation, the effect of wind load is also taken into account. The introduction of wind load will lead to asymmetry, in other words, it transforms the symmetric heteroclinic orbits into asymmetric homoclinic orbits. For asymmetric dynamical system, the orbital analytic solutions and its power spectrum are not readily available, and the technique of discrete time Fourier transformation (DTFT) is used. In the end, as verification of theoretical critical significant wave height, capsizing probability contour diagram is generated by means of numerical simulation. The contour diagram shows that these analytical methods provide reliable and predictive results about the likelihood of a vessel capsizing in a given seaway condition.  相似文献   
48.
ABSTRACT

Oil spill forecast modelling is typically used immediately after a spill to predict oil dispersal and promote mobilisation of more effective response operations. The aim of this work was to map oil dispersal after the grounding of the MV Rena on Astrolabe Reef and to verify the results against observations. Model predictions were broadly consistent with observed distribution of oil contamination. However, some hot spots of oil accumulation, likely due to surf-zone and rip current circulation, were not well represented. Additionally, the model was run with 81 differing wind conditions to show that the events occurring during the grounding represented the typical likely behaviour of an oil spill on Astrolabe Reef. Oil dispersal was highly dependent on prevailing wind patterns; more accurate prediction would require better observations of local wind patterns. However, comparison of predictions with observations indicated that the GNOME model was an effective low-cost approach.  相似文献   
49.
采用逻辑回归模型和确定性系数CF建立概率模型,使用收集到的22个边坡实例,将重度、内聚力、坡角、坡高、内摩擦角和孔隙压力比六个影响因子作为自变量,边坡状态作为因变量,应用SPSS取不同的滑坡概率P与不滑坡概率1-P的比值的自然对数Z进行回归分析。将获得的滑坡概率拟合模型反馈到样本参数上,对比其误差,选取Z=±10时的函数模型对另外8组边坡进行验证,证明预测模型的合理性。  相似文献   
50.
为分析寒区渠基黏土热参数的随机分布特征及概率分布模型,以寒区渠基黏土的导热系数为样本,结合经典分布拟合法、多项式逼近法、最大熵法和正态信息扩散法,分别对寒区渠基黏土热参数的概率分布规律进行了研究。首先通过分析热参数的离散性,并比较概率分布曲线、拟合检验值和累计概率分布值,对不同方法描述热参数随机性的优劣进行了评价;然后,基于寒区渠基黏土热学参数对温度的敏感性,提出了一个可以达到理想拟合精度的寒区渠基黏土热参数概率推断的区间取值标准。研究结果表明:寒区渠基黏土的热参数具有随机变量的特征;正态信息扩散法可以描述热参数样本的随机波动性;在4种方法中,正态信息扩散法的拟合精度最高。使用3.5σ法,将[μ-3.5σ,μ+3.5σ](μ为随机变量的均值,σ为标准差)作为概率函数推断时的取值区间,同时考虑偏度的影响,可使得累计概率值达到1.000 0的精度,能够较准确地推断热参数的概率分布函数。  相似文献   
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