Ecological Risk Assessment of Benzo[a]pyrene in Yellow River Delta

Ecological risk assessment is of great significance to promoting the rational management effectively for the oil‐polluted areas. A comprehensive evaluation method of ecological risk, including probabilistic risk assessment and regional ecological risk assessment, is developed through employing the contaminant benzo[a]pyrene as an indicator to assess ecological risk of five oil mining plots, respectively in Yellow River Delta. In this study, firstly we evaluate the ecological risk probability of five oil mining plots using overlapping area of probabilistic curves, and the results show that local ecological risk varies between the maximum 0.4 and the minimum 0.01. Then we overlay boundaries of five administrative divisions in Yellow River Delta and the spatial distribution patterns of ecosystems to generate new risk receptor plaques, and calculate the integrated value of 30 specifically classified plaques for comprehensive evaluation of ecological risk. The results, fluctuating within the range of 0.00005 and 0.25, indicate that local government should be vigilant to ecological risk of benzo[a]pyrene to some extent, although the current situation is not severe in whole.     

Geospatial predictive modelling of the Neolithic archaeological sites of Magnesia in Greece

Abstract

Sources of heterogeneous geospatial data such as the elevation, the slope, the aspect, the water network and the current settlements related to the known Neolithic archaeological sites of Magnesia, are used in an attempt to confirm the existence and allow for the prediction of other archaeological sites using predictive modelling theory. Predictive modelling allows the update of the problem solving strategy as soon as new data layers are available. The Dempster–Shafer Theory also commonly referred to as evidential reasoning (ER) is used to compose probability maps of areas of archaeological interest from physiographical and historical data. The advantage of this theory is that the ignorance is quantified and used to compose the probability maps named as belief, plausibility and belief interval for the archaeological sites. The final digital probability maps show that the Neolithic archaeological sites can be detected in the prefecture of Magnesia. This research study forms a methodological tool for the prediction of new archaeological sites in other areas of archaeological interest according to the physiographical and historical characteristics of the archaeological period being examined. It also contributes to the digital earth modelling and archaeological site protection, one of the most critical and challenging global initiatives.     

弱GPS信号捕获算法及其仿真研究

为满足低信噪比环境下的导航需要,介绍了一种基于改进循环相关的GPS基带信号捕获算法。本文借助于GPS信号基带数学模型以及FFT技术,从理论层面上对捕获算法的信号处理流程以及捕获性能进行了分析;并利用真实GPS基带数据对算法在低信噪比环境下的检测概率和捕获能力进行了重点仿真,仿真结果显示算法在低信噪比环境下是有效的,能够提高低信噪比环境下的检测概率和提高GPS接收机的检测灵敏度。     

Landslide susceptibility assessment using three bivariate models considering the new topo-hydrological factor: HAND

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to assess the relative contribution of the state-of-the-art topo-hydrological factor, known as height above the nearest drainage (HAND), to landslide susceptibility modellling using three novel statistical models: weights-of-evidence (WofE), index of entropy and certainty factor. In total, 12 landslide conditioning factors that affect the landslide incidence were used as input to the models in the Ziarat Watershed, Golestan Province, Iran. Landslide inventory was randomly divided into a ratio of 70:30 for training and validating the results of the models. The optimum combination of conditioning factors was identified using the principal components analysis (PCA) method. The results demonstrated that HAND is the defining factor among hydrological and topographical factors in the study area. Additionally, the WofE model had the highest prediction capability (AUPRC = 74.31%). Therefore, HAND was found to be a promising factor for landslide susceptibility mapping.     

我国7度设防等跨RC框架抗地震倒塌能力研究

我国建筑结构抗震设计主要采用基于小震下的构件承载力计算保证结构的抗震承载能力,配合抗震构造措施保证结构的变形能力,缺乏大震抗倒塌定量计算.而实际地震震害表明,即使是同类结构,其结构体系参数对其抗地震倒塌能力也有很大影响.为此,本文依据《建筑抗震设计规范》GB50011 - 2001,按照7度抗震设防设计了24个不同跨度...     

山东Ⅱ、Ⅲ类场地地震动峰值加速度放大效应分析

利用山东地区实测的Ⅱ类场地358个钻孔和Ⅲ类场地140个钻孔的地震动峰值加速度,计算了各个钻孔不同超越概率的土层地震动峰值加速度的放大系数ks,结果表明:(1)同类场地土层放大系数ks值总体符合正态分布,既有相对集中性,也有离散性;(2)随着基岩面输入地震动强度的增大,ks值降低,且Ⅲ类场地ks值降低较Ⅱ类的更为明显;(3)Ⅱ类场地随着基岩输入面埋深的增加,ks值呈增加趋势,约达20m深后基本趋于稳定,而Ⅲ类场地基岩输入面埋深的增加对ks值的影响不甚显著;(4)Ⅱ类场地50年超越概率10％的平均ks值(1.47)略高于《中国地震动参数区划图》使用的全国平均ks值.本文尝试讨论了山东地区Ⅱ、Ⅲ类场地不同强度基岩峰值加速度输入的ks调整值.     

西秦岭北缘断裂破裂分段与地震危险性评估

根据最新地质考察和历史地震考证结果,西秦岭北缘断裂带从东到西可划分为宝鸡、天水、武山、漳县、黄香沟和锅麻滩共6个次级断裂段。上述断裂既具有单段破裂,又具有多段组合破裂的特征。利用时间相依的地震潜势概率评估方法,对这6个单段分别进行地震危险性概率评估,其中黄香沟段和漳县段发生单段破裂的可能性最大,天水段发生单段破裂的概率次之。若发生组合破裂,黄香沟段和漳县段组合破裂可能性大。同时,根据沿断裂带的b值扫描图像分析结果显示,黄香沟段和天水附近应力积累较高,这两个地区应是未来发生强震的主要段落,值得关注。     

Study on Probability Distributions of Multi-Timescale Aerosol Optical Depth Using AERONET Data

The probability distribution analysis is per-formed for multi-timescale aerosol optical depth (AOD) using AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) level 2.0 data.The maximum likelihood estimation is employed to determine the best-fit probability density function (PDF),and the statement that the fitting Weibull distribution will be light-tailed is proved true for these AOD samples.The best-fit PDF results for multi-site data show that the PDF of AOD samples with longer timescale in most sites tends to be stably represented by lognormal distribution,while Weibull distribution is a better fit for AOD samples with short timescales.The reason for this difference is ana-lyzed through tail characteristics of the two distributions,and an indicator for the selection between Weibull and lognormal distributions is suggested and validated.The result of this research is helpful for determining the most accurate AOD statistics for a given site and a given time-scale and for validating the retrieved AOD through its PDF.     

淮河流域汛期20 d内最大日降水量概率分布

利用淮河流域158个站点1980—2007年夏季降水量资料,选取淮河上游、淮河中上游、淮河中下游、洪泽湖以下和沂沭河5个子流域,采用Γ分布函数分析了淮河流域首雨日 (前1日无雨) 和连续雨日 (前1日有雨) 的夏季多年降水的概率分布特点。通过对代表站息县、阜阳、商丘、淮安、连云港Γ分布概率密度与样本频率的对比分析和K-S检验表明:Γ分布函数能较好拟合分条件的淮河流域夏季雨日的概率分布,用该分布函数递推得到的1 d, 10 d, 20 d内最大日降水量概率分布比较规则合理。淮河流域5个子流域中淮河上游、淮河中下游、沂沭河流域在10 d,20 d内最大日降水量不低于10 mm,25 mm,50 mm的可能性更大。     

FOSM在水平场地液化概率评价中的应用

为了更好地进行场地液化评价,将可靠度理论引入水平场地液化概率评价中。以标准贯入试验(SPT)实测数据的统计分析结果为基础,用一次二阶矩法(FOSM)建立水平场地液化概率评价模型,分析了测试数据变异系数对抗液化安全系数与液化概率的影响,并建议了水平场地液化概率评价标准。实例分析表明,新建水平场地液化概率评价模型各参数的物理意义与统计指标明确,相比传统的确定性分析方法,不仅能判定液化的发生与否,还能给出液化发生的概率,这为进行基于风险分析的抗震设计提供了可能。