A niche model to predict Microcystis bloom decline in Chaohu Lake, China

Cyanobacterial blooms occur frequently in lakes due to eutrophication. Although a number of models have been proposed to forecast algal blooms, a good and applicable method is still lacking. This study explored a simple and effective mathematical-ecological model to evaluate the growth status and predict the population dynamics of Microcystis blooms. In this study, phytoplankton were collected and identified from 8 sampling sites in Chaohu Lake every month from July to October, 2010. The niche breadth and niche overlap of common species were calculated using standard equations, and the potential relative growth rates of Microcystis were calculated as a weighted-value of niche overlap. In July, the potential relative growth rate was 2.79 (a.u., arbitrary units) but then rapidly declined in the following months to -3.99 a.u. in September. A significant correlation (R=0.998, P<0.01) was found in the model between the net-increase in biomass of Microcystis in the field and the predicted values calculated by the niche model, we concluded that the niche model is suitable for forecasting the dynamics of Microcystis blooms. Redundancy analysis indicated that decreases in water temperature, dissolved oxygen and total dissolved phosphorus might be major factors underlying bloom decline. Based on the theory of community succession being caused by resource competition, the growth and decline of blooms can be predicted from a community structure. This may provide a basis for early warning and control of algal blooms.     

地震台站数字化观测系统的运行与维护

随着数字技术的不断发展,我国大部分地震台站都进行了数字化改造,地震观测的现代化、数字化、智能化,对地震台站的运行环境和技术维护提出了更高的要求。本文根据在地震台站多年的工作积累和台站管理经验,对地震台数字化观测系统运行与维护的目标、基本要求作了说明,并提出了地震台数字化观测系统运行和维护的有关制度。     

永安地震台数字化SWY-Ⅱ水位仪观测概况与仪器维护

永安地震台数字化SWY-Ⅱ水位仪为中国地震局台站背景场项目观测仪器,通过对永安台数字化SWY-Ⅱ水位仪运行两年来观测概况的介绍,总结日常观测过程中可能遇到的仪器故障,并探讨解决仪器问题的经验办法,提高仪器维护的技术水平。     

天津市地震前兆台网的运行监控与维护管理

介绍天津市地震前兆台网的基本概况以及前兆台网部的职责任务;阐述仪器设备运行监控、观测数据质量监控的方式与方法;总结在仪器设备、技术系统维护过程中解决的一些关键技术问题;最后提出了关于仪器和软件系统的一些问题与建议。     

测震台卫星设备维护与问题的解决

在日常工作当中,由于卫星地面传输设备故障造成的数据传输中断以及解决办法,同时就卫星信号地面传输设备的维护办法做出了详细总结,从而实现卫星测震台低故障率,为地震速报工作提供有力保障。     

水包油钻井液在梨深1井欠平衡段的应用

采用何种流体作为携岩介质,既能保护油气层又能保持井壁的稳定是欠平衡钻井的关键。梨深1井在四开欠平衡井段采用了水包油钻井液体系,这是该区域首次使用此体系。通过配方的优选,科学的维护处理,不但能够发现和保护了油气层,同时对较长泥岩段的井壁稳定起到了良好的防塌效果,为以后该区域的欠平衡钻井施工提供了一个较好的携岩体系。     

北祁连西段镜铁山式铜矿预测要素及预测模型

在北祁连镜铁山地区,近年来发现了与中元古界条带状铁建造有关的破碎带蚀变岩型铜矿,如桦树沟铜矿床和柳沟峡铜矿床。分析了铜矿床的预测要素:矿源层为含铜条带状铁建造;有利于矿质活化的构造为透入性构造裂隙;热源为壳源岩浆活动;储矿构造为构造破碎蚀变带。建立了镜铁山式铜矿资源潜力预测的经验公式,对预测区铜远景资源潜力、铁矿石量、透入性构造裂隙发育程度和热源参数的取值分别进行探讨。据此公式估算,整个北祁连西段镜铁山式铜矿的铜金属资源潜力为147.3万t,其中镜铁山矿田铜资源潜力可达约125万t。实地考察也发现了新的找矿有利地段,因此有必要继续加大找矿力度。     

Testing a 1-D analytical salt intrusion model and its predictive equations in Malaysian estuaries

Abstract

Little is known about the salt intrusion behaviour in Malaysian estuaries. Study of salt intrusion generally requires large amounts of data, especially if 2-D or 3-D numerical models are used; thus, in data-poor environments, 1-D analytical models are more appropriate. A fully analytical 1-D salt intrusion model, which is simple to implement and requires minimal data, was tested in six previously unsurveyed Malaysian estuaries (Kurau, Perak, Bernam, Selangor, Muar and Endau). The required data can be collected during a single day of observations. Site measurements were conducted during the dry season (June–August 2012 and February–March 2013) near spring tide. Data on cross-sections (by echo-sounding), water levels (by pressure loggers) and salinity (by moving boat) were collected as model input. A good fit was demonstrated between the simulated and observed salinity distribution for all six estuaries. Additionally, the two calibration parameters (the Van der Burgh coefficient and the boundary condition for the dispersion) were compared with the existing predictive equations. Since gauging stations were only present in some nested catchments in the drainage basins, the river discharge had to be up-scaled to represent the total discharge contribution of the catchments. However, the correspondence between the calibration coefficients and the predictive equations was good, particularly in view of the uncertainty in the river discharge data used. This confirms that the predictive salt intrusion model is valid for the cases studied in Malaysia. The model provides a reliable, predictive tool, which the water authority of Malaysia can use for making decisions on water abstraction or dredging.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor A. Fiori     

Geospatial predictive modelling of the Neolithic archaeological sites of Magnesia in Greece

Abstract

Sources of heterogeneous geospatial data such as the elevation, the slope, the aspect, the water network and the current settlements related to the known Neolithic archaeological sites of Magnesia, are used in an attempt to confirm the existence and allow for the prediction of other archaeological sites using predictive modelling theory. Predictive modelling allows the update of the problem solving strategy as soon as new data layers are available. The Dempster–Shafer Theory also commonly referred to as evidential reasoning (ER) is used to compose probability maps of areas of archaeological interest from physiographical and historical data. The advantage of this theory is that the ignorance is quantified and used to compose the probability maps named as belief, plausibility and belief interval for the archaeological sites. The final digital probability maps show that the Neolithic archaeological sites can be detected in the prefecture of Magnesia. This research study forms a methodological tool for the prediction of new archaeological sites in other areas of archaeological interest according to the physiographical and historical characteristics of the archaeological period being examined. It also contributes to the digital earth modelling and archaeological site protection, one of the most critical and challenging global initiatives.     

提高(CINRAD/CD)天气雷达业务质量经验浅谈

本文基于气象观测质量体系,通过新一代天气雷达（CINRAD/CD）观测、维护、维修及标定等过程,结合实际观测及技术保障工作中总结到的经验与技巧,关注一些易于被人忽视的细节,减少雷达异常现象出现的次数,减少雷达元数据出现异常的几率,努力实现雷达数据资料的可靠、完整、及时与真实,提高天气雷达的业务质量。