0103号台风"榴莲"路径与致洪暴雨成因分析

通过对0103号台风"榴莲"的路径及特大暴雨天气的环流背景分析,认为造成这次致洪暴雨过程的最主要的天气原因是:深厚的副热带高压使台风偏向西行进入广西,与正在爆发的西南季风云系相遇,从而使降雨量大幅度增加,引发了广西南部特大洪水过程。     

云南水汞在打破M≥5级地震平静后强震前的异常分析

通过普洱6．3、宁蒗6．2级和姚安6．5级3个在省内M≥5级地震平静了10余个月,打破5级平静后发生的M≥6级强震前水汞的异常分析,并着重短临异常研究,结果表明这3次地震前水汞均有中期和短、临异常,中、短、临异常台站数为两头少,中间多。中期异常表现为11％。22％的水汞观测台站震前出现2—10个月的中期异常;短期异常表现为震前2—3个月,平均44％的台站观测到短期异常,最大异常幅度与异常判定线比值在1．3—3．2倍之间：强震前都只有1个台站出现临震异常。短期异常有差异,宁蒗6．2级主震前,短期异常在2次前震前出现,普洱6．3、姚安6．5级地震前,水汞短期异常在打破5级平静的地震前出现,水汞短期异常有活跃、平静的现象。最早出现中期异常的台站相对靠近震中。     

云南水汞在连发地震前短临异常及震后变化特征

通过对1995年5月6日—1996年2月3日发生在云南境内及其中缅边境一带的4组5次M≥6．0级强震的研究,发现水汞在强震连发期都出现短临异常及震后变化;与2001年云南省内6组7次5．0—5．9级中强地震短临异常及震后变化进行比较,结果表明强震连发期水汞的短临异常特征表现为异常台站多、异常幅度大、异常范围广和多台站水汞在异常中发震。中强震连发期水汞的短临异常特征与此相反。表现为异常台站少、异常幅度小、异常范围小和多台站水汞在异常结束后发震。     

Monsoonal precipitation variation in the East Asia since A.D. 1840

Three tree-ring rainfall reconstructions from China and Korea are used in this paper to investigate the East Asian summer monsoon-related precipitation variation over the past 160 years. Statistically, there is no linear correlation on a year-by-year basis between Chinese and Korean monsoon rainfall, but region-wide synchronous variation on a decadal-scale was observed. More rainfall intervals were 1860–1890, 1910–1925, and 1940–1960, and dry or even drought periods were 1890–1910, 1925–1940, and 1960–present. Reconstructions also display that the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation suddenly changed from more into less around mid-1920. These tree-ring precipitation records were also confirmed by Chinese historical dryness/wetness index and Korean historical rain gauge data.     

The carbon isotope composition of C<Superscript>3</Superscript> herbaceous plants in loess area of northern China

¹³C of 367 C₃ herbaceous plants was measured in loess area in northern China. Their δ¹³C values vary between −21.7%. and −30.0%., with a mean of −26.7%.. In the center of Loess Plateau (semimoist area) with annual precipitation of 400–600 mm, the δ¹³ C values of C₃ herbaceous plants range from −24.4%. to −28.5%., with a mean of −27.5%.. In the west of Loess Plateau (semiarid and arid area) with annual precipitation less than 400 mm, they range between −21.7%. and −30.0%., with a mean of −26.2%.. Annual precipitation is the main factor that makes δ¹³C values of C₃ herbaceous plants in the west greater than those in the central Loess Plateau. The composition of δ¹³C in C₃ plants increases with deceasing annual precipitation, and the mean change is −49%./100 mm.     

吉林省东部贵金属、有色金属矿床的时空分布规律

将吉林省东部地区的贵金属、有色金属矿床在成矿作用时间上与全球性成矿事件及区域性成矿事件对比分析,总结成矿的相似性和本区成矿的特点及具中国特色的燕山期成矿的重要性,提出区内大型矿田(或矿集区)的空间分布特点及主控因素,对成矿预测具指导意义。     

山西地下水氡中短期异常识别标志及预报方法研究

采用“九五”地震科技攻关地下水化学及 EIS2 0 0 0提供的多种数据处理和异常识别方法 ,对山西省地下水氡观测资料进行了较详细的处理 ,筛选出较好的数据处理方法和异常标志。结果表明 ,除常规的数学处理方法外 ,用水氡的基值变化率和滑动变化率提取异常效果较好 ,如果基值变化率 R0 ≥ 0 .0 6 ,持续时间大于等于 12个月 ,滑动变化率 R≥ 0 .0 5 ,持续时间大于等于 12个月 ,则视为异常     

嘉陵江流域水保治理前后沿程水沙变化研究

嘉陵江为长江上游重要支流,是长江三峡水库重要的洪水和泥沙来源地。20世纪50年代初至80年代末,多年平均径流量701亿m3,多年平均悬移质输沙量近1.4亿t;“长治”工程的实施,对控制流域水土流失起到了较为明显的积极作用。以流域内主要控制站大量的实测水文气象资料为依据,重点研究了全流域水保治理前后的水沙变化情况及规律。     

Invariant Tori in the Secular Motions of the Three-body Planetary Systems

We consider the problem of the applicability of KAM theorem to a realistic problem of three bodies. In the framework of the averaged dynamics over the fast angles for the Sun–Jupiter–Saturn system we can prove the perpetual stability of the orbit. The proof is based on semi-numerical algorithms requiring both explicit algebraic manipulations of series and analytical estimates. The proof is made rigorous by using interval arithmetics in order to control the numerical errors.     

区域发展和水资源利用透明交互决策系统

区域发展与水资源是密切相关的 ,本文提出以时空运筹模型为核心的决策判断过程透明和分层交互的决策系统 ,简称透明交互决策系统。用户可以使用此系统找到研究区社会经济发展与水资源协调的方案。