模式水平分辨率对祁连山区降水模拟影响的初步分析

利用中尺度模式MM5V3．6，针对祁连山地区2002年7月14～17日的一次降水过程，设计了一组不同水平分辨率的试验进行数值模拟。并将模式结果与实测资料进行对比，结果表明：高水平分辨率对降水中心位置的模拟较好，但同时会产生虚假降水中心，且模拟的降水中心量值一般都大于实测值。而低水平分辨率对降水量值的模拟较好，但对降水中心位置的模拟没有高水平分辨率的好。     

T106产品中700hPa垂直速度和水汽能量与塔城大降水关系的探讨

对塔城盆地1998－1999年15个大降水个例进行了诊断分析，发现了T106产品700hPa垂直速度和水汽通量与塔城盆地大降水量级呈正相关，并给出了定量预报指标。     

分县客观定量降水预报微机自动化处理系统

本系统着重于T106数据预报产品的应用，采用最优子集回归方程，从气象卫星网上下发的T106数值预报产品中选取最优因子，建立了长治地区11个县市24h、48h降水预报多元回归方程。该系统采用VB5编程，建立了实时资料自动处理、分县客观定量降水预报自动制作、预报结果文本、图形输出等模块。该系统可直接挂接于MICAPS系统下，定时自动运行，无需人工干预。预报结果输出图文并茂，可供预报员参考。     

1957-1996台风对中国降水的影响

台风活动中国气候的重要特点之一，它能带来大量降水并造成严重的财产损失。在一些地区，台风降水甚至可以在总降水量中占很大比例。本文目的是研究那些对中国产生影响的台风并重点关注台风对中国降水的影响。文中涉及四个方面的工作。首先，研究了影响中国台风的频率，结果表明台风影响的主要季节为5－11月，尤其以7－9月频繁；在过去40年中影响台风的频率没有明显的变化趋势。第二，对台站台风降水的气候特征分析结果显示，海南和东南沿海地区受台风的影响最大，而且长江以南大部地区每年都受到台风的影响；另外，影响区域大部分地区的台风降水在过去40年中表现出下降的趋势，但是只有东北地区南部这种趋势是显著的。第三，对台风个例的分析表明，个例降水总量和影响面积之间存在着显著的线性关系。最后，对台风造成的中国范围降水总量进行了分析，初步结果显示台风降水总量在1957－1996年间显著减少。     

全球陆地年降水量与ENSO关系的初步研究

用全球陆地月降水资料（PREC／L），研究了1948－2000年期间的ENSO事件与全球陆地年降水量的关系，对全盛分析的结果进行了蒙特卡洛模拟经验。结果表明，暖事件年全球陆地年降水量大范围地明显减小，显著的地区是：赤道西太平洋区，中国的华北，赤道中美洲区，孟加拉湾北部及尼泊尔，东澳大利亚区，印度西部及巴基斯坦南部，勒拿河以东地区，西欧及南极的威尔克斯等区域。在暖事件年，陆地年降水量增加地区不多，主要是南美的智利和阿根廷，东非索马里，肯尼亚和坦桑亚，中东的土耳其，伊拉克及伊朗，北非的利比亚和阿尔及利亚，西南非的纳米比亚及非洲南部的博茨瓦纳和津巴布韦。统计检验表明，暖事件年全球陆地年降水量减少的面积比降水量增加的面积要大，而且更为显著，将本文结果与早期的研究结果进行了比较，研究还指出，ENSO的年代际变化对上述地区降水的年代际变化影响不明显。但是80年代以后的暖事件对东澳大利亚干旱，中国的华北的干旱的影响比80年代前的影响更大。     

南疆地区降水云系的探讨

普查南疆1998－2000年3aGMS5静止卫星红外云图，共有192次云系影响南疆，分为5种类型，南疆云系出现的次数较少，常造成中弱以下降水天气，有云无降水的情况较多，并讨论了云系的TBB与降水之间的关系，冬季南疆阴雾天气在红外云图上其TBB值为－10℃的闭合中心。     

吐鲁番山区人工增水作业效果的统计分析

应用统计检验和回归分析两种数理统计方法，对吐鲁番1997－2000年山区人工增水作业效果进行了分析。结果得出作业影响区内作业年份5－6月平均流量显著增加。     

Parameter identification of inelastic structures under dynamic loads

The generalized model of differential hysteresis contains 13 control parameters with which it can curve‐fit practically any hysteretic trace. Three identification algorithms are developed to estimate the control parameters of hysteresis for different classes of inelastic structures. These algorithms are based upon the simplex, extended Kalman filter, and generalized reduced gradient methods. Novel techniques such as global search and internal constraints are incorporated to facilitate convergence and stability. Effectiveness of the devised algorithms is demonstrated through simulations of two inelastic systems with both pinching and degradation characteristics in their hysteretic traces. Owing to very modest computing requirements, these identification algorithms may become acceptable as a design tool for mapping the hysteretic traces of inelastic structures. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mantle structure and rifting processes in the Baikal–Mongolia region: geophysical data and evidence from xenoliths in volcanic rocks

The origin of the Baikal rift zone (BRZ) has been debated between the advocates of passive and active rifting since the 1970s. A re-assessment of the relevant geological and geophysical data from Russian and international literature questions the concept of broad asthenospheric upwelling beneath the rift zone that has been the cornerstone of many “active rifting” models. Results of a large number of early and recent studies favour the role of far-field forces in the opening and development of the BRZ. This study emphasises the data obtained through studies of peridotite and pyroxenite xenoliths brought to the surface by alkali basaltic magmas in southern Siberia and central Mongolia. These xenoliths are direct samples of the upper mantle in the vicinity of the BRZ. Of particular importance are suites of garnet-bearing xenoliths that have been used to construct P–T- composition lithospheric cross-sections in the region for the depth range of 35–80 km.Xenolith studies have shown fundamental differences in the composition and thermal regime between the lithospheric mantle beneath the ancient Siberian platform (sampled by kimberlites) and beneath younger mobile belts south of the platform. The uppermost mantle in southern Siberia and central Mongolia is much hotter at similar levels than the mantle in the Siberian craton and also has significantly higher contents of ‘basaltic’ major elements (Ca, Al, Na) and iron, higher Fe/Si and Fe/Mg. The combination of the moderately high geothermal gradient and the fertile compositions in the off-cratonic mantle appears to be a determining factor controlling differences in sub-Moho seismic velocities relative to the Siberian craton. Chemical and isotopic compositions of the off-cratonic xenoliths indicate small-scale and regional mantle heterogeneities attributed to various partial melting and enrichment events, consistent with long-term evolution in the lithospheric mantle. Age estimates of mantle events based on Os–Sr–Nd isotopic data can be correlated with major regional stages of crustal formation and may indicate long-term crust–mantle coupling. The ratios of ^143/144Nd in many LREE-depleted xenoliths are higher than those in MORB or OIB source regions and are not consistent with a recent origin from asthenospheric mantle.Mantle xenoliths nearest to the rift basins (30–50 km south of southern Lake Baikal) show no unequivocal evidence for strong heating, unusual stress and deformation, solid state flow, magmatic activity or partial melting that could be indicative of an asthenospheric intrusion right below the Moho. Comparisons between xenoliths from older and younger volcanic rocks east of Lake Baikal, together with observations on phase transformations and mineral zoning in individual xenoliths, have indicated recent heating in portions of the lithospheric mantle that may be related to localised magmatic activity or small-scale ascent of deep mantle material. Overall, the petrographic, P–T, chemical and isotopic constraints from mantle xenoliths appear to be consistent with recent geophysical studies, which found no evidence for a large-scale asthenospheric upwarp beneath the rift, and lend support to passive rifting mechanism for the BRZ.     

Heat flow and thermal modeling of the Yinggehai Basin, South China Sea

Geothermal gradients are estimated to vary from 31 to 43 °C/km in the Yinggehai Basin based on 99 temperature data sets compiled from oil well data. Thirty-seven thermal conductivity measurements on core samples were made and the effects of porosity and water saturation were corrected. Thermal conductivities of mudstone and sandstone range from 1.2 to 2.7 W/m K, with a mean of 2.0±0.5 W/m K after approximate correction. Heat flow at six sites in the Yinggehai Basin range from 69 to 86 mW/m², with a mean value of 79±7 mW/m². Thick sediments and high sedimentation rates resulted in a considerable radiogenic contribution, but also depressed the heat flow. Measurements indicate the radiogenic heat production in the sediment is 1.28 μW/m³, which contributes 20% to the surface heat flow. After subtracting radiogenic heat contribution of the sediment, and sedimentation correction, the average basal heat flow from basement is about 86 mW/m².Three stages of extension are recognized in the subsidence history, and a kinematic model is used to study the thermal evolution of the basin since the Cenozoic era. Model results show that the peak value of basal heat flow was getting higher and higher through the Cenozoic. The maximum basal heat flow increased from 65 mW/m² in the first stage to 75 mW/m² in the second stage, and then 90 mW/m² in the third stage. The present temperature field of the lithosphere of the Yinggehai Basin, which is still transient, is the result of the multistage extension, but was primarily associated with the Pliocene extension.