降雨资料Kriging与IDW插值对比分析—以漓江流域为例

降水空间化信息在很多领域都具有重要意义,而进行空间插值方法形成降水空间化信息是当代较为常用的方式。面对众多的插值方法其插值精度成为我们是否采用的关键,就kirging插值法与IDW(Inverse Distance Weighting)插值进行研究以探讨其插值效果,为此类科学研究提供依据。研究以漓江流域内各气象站点降水统计资料为基础分别采用上述两种方法进行插值处理,通过与预留实测站点比较评判方法的插值效果的优劣。结果表明,多年月平均降水量作为时间步长时,降水丰沛的月份使用kriging插值法较优于IDW插值法,而枯水月份则使用IDW插值法较优于kriging插值法。     

城市水利工程对京杭大运河无锡段水位影响分析

根据京杭大运河无锡段历年河流水位与降水量的关联,结合城市水利工程,分析了京杭大运河无锡段水位变化规律。重点研究了2003年前后水位变化的形成机制,推求出水利工程和气候条件下水位的变化特点,总结了城市水利工程对京杭大运河流向产生的影响。为本地区研究城市水利工程影响下河流水位变化情况及防汛应用提供了数据支持。     

铜陵矿集区冬瓜山矿床斑岩-矽卡岩型矿床成矿作用过程中的Cu同位素地球化学行为初步研究

本文报道了长江中下游铜陵矿集区内冬瓜山斑岩-矽卡岩型Cu-Au矿床中硫化物、石英闪长岩体和赋矿围岩的Cu同位素组成特征.其中,硫化物的δ65 Cu变化范围为-0.54‰～0.95‰,变化范围较大,达1.5‰,表明高温成矿体系下铜同位素发生分馏,铜同位素具有示踪高温成矿作用过程的潜力.不同空间位置的黄铜矿的铜同位素组成呈现出空间分带特征,表现为从岩体和斑岩型矿体→近岩体矽卡岩→矽卡岩型矿体,随着远离岩体,黄铜矿的铜同位素组成逐渐变重.导致斑岩-矽卡岩型矿床铜同位素出现空间分带的主要原因是矿化过程中铜同位素发生分馏.并且,对于冬瓜山矿床来讲,导致铜同位素组成空间分带的分馏不是发生在Cu在气-液两相之间分配的过程中,而是发生在硫化物从流体中沉淀出来的过程中.在硫化物的沉淀过程中,铜的重同位素优先在流体中富集,轻同位素在沉淀中富集,随着流体向外迁移,硫化物沉淀的进行,残余热液流体会逐渐富集铜的重同位素.硫化物的铜同位素组成可以用来反演和指示成矿流体的迁移方向.     

改进的灰色预测模型在地面沉降预测中的应用

在地面沉降这一复杂系统中,既含有已知的又古有未知的或非确定的信息,可以作为一个灰色系统来研究.本文针对地面沉降的下沉曲线非线性特征,提出用一种基于残差灰色预测模型对地面沉降量时间序列进行研究.结果表明,通过改进后的灰色预测模型,预测精度得到了提高,在沉降量比较大和水准点比较稀少的地区,利用此模型预测地面沉降可减少地面沉降监测经费,并能实时提供地面沉降预警信息.     

Limitations of real-time models for forecasting river flooding from monsoon rainfall

Very intense rainfall during the southwest and northeast monsoons causes severe river flooding in India. Some traditional techniques used for real-time forecasting of flooding involve the relationship between effective rainfall and direct surface runoff, which simplifies the complex interactions between rainfall and runoff processes. There are, however, serious problems in deducing these variables in real time, so it is highly desirable to have a real-time flood forecasting model that would directly relate the observed discharge hydrograph to the observed rainfall. The storage routing model described by Baba and Hoshi (1997), Tanaka et al. (1997), and Baba et al. (2000), and a simplified version of this model, have been used to compute observed river discharge directly from observed hourly rainfall. This method has been used to study rainfall–runoff data of the Ajay River Basin in eastern India. Five intense rainfall events of this basin were studied. Our results showed that the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of discharge prediction for these five events was 98.6%, 94.3%, 86.9%, 85.6%, and 67%. The hindcast for the first two events is regarded as completely satisfactory whereas for the next two events it is deemed reasonable and for the fifth it is unsatisfactory. It seems the models will yield accurate hindcast if the rainfall is uniform over the drainage basin. When the rainfall is not uniform the performance of the model is unsatisfactory. In future this problem can, in principle, be corrected by using a weighted amount if rainfall is based upon multiple rain-gauge observations over the drainage basin. This would provide some measure of the dispersion in the rainfall. The model also seems unable to simulate flooding events with multiple peaks.     

潞西盆地浅层地下水脆弱性预测分析

运用DRASTIC方法，评价潞西盆地浅层地下水脆弱性，结合区内人类工程活动因子。对潞西盆地远期地下水脆弱性进行预测分析，成果可为区内土地规划、备用水源地的选择、垃圾填埋场的选址及实现水资源可持续利用提供合理依据。     

Element budgets of pine stands on lignite and pyrite containing mine soils

To analyze the development of pine ecosystems on lignite and pyrite containing mine soils, four pine stands with ages of 3–35 years were investigated in a chronosequence approach. Bulk precipitation, throughfall and soil solution in depths of 20, 40, 70 and 100 cm were studied over a three-year period to determine element fluxes in these forest ecosystems on extreme acidic and saline soils.Element budgets are controlled by the processes induced by pyrite oxidation such as intensive weathering of primary minerals, precipitation and leaching of secondary phases.Despite low water fluxes, element outputs can reach extraordinary high values due to very high concentrations in the soil solution. Although element outputs decrease drastically with stand age, respectively, site age, they exceed those of comparable pine stands on non-mine sites. Nitrogen release from the lignite fraction represents a special characteristic of the examined substrates. Nitrogen losses beneath the rooted zone can be 34 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in 100 cm depth. Element input and output in the examined ecosystems are far from balance. Closed cycling of nutrients seems to be recognizable in the case of potassium.     

宁镇地区地质灾害预报模型——以镇江润州区为例

宁镇地区是长江中下游地质灾害最严重的地区之一。镇江润州区虽然仅是宁镇地区的一个局部区域,但其气候和地质环境特征具有典型意义,所提出的地质灾害气象预警预报模型同样适用于整个宁镇地区,对长江中下游地区亦有借鉴作用。气候环境、降雨尤其是连续降雨或强降雨是诱发地质灾害的重要因素。润州区地质灾害主要与梅雨期总降雨量有关,其次与台汛期台风带来的降雨量有关,而与台汛期总降雨量无关。地质灾害预测预警方程应针对不同时期采用不同的预警模型：非梅雨期的预警方程采用预报日降雨量结合前5日降水之和的综合模型,梅雨期的预警方程采用梅雨期降雨总量模型。提出地质灾害气象预报预警等级应根据《国家突发公共事件总体应急预案》将等级统一划分为4级。该模型可作为完善我国现有地质灾害气象预警预报系统的参考。     

变权组合预测模型在地下水水位预测中的应用

为探讨变权组合预测模型在地下水水位预测中的应用,以内蒙古通辽市东郊为研究区,利用该区1997-2008年的地下水水位埋深数据,采用基于指数预测法、灰色预测法以及线性回归预测法的变权组合预测方法进行水位埋深的模拟和预测。经计算,以上3种单项预测方法的预测值以及组合预测方法的预测值与实际值的误差平方和分别为5.116 1、5.080 1、4.914 8、4.672 3。这表明,利用变权组合预测方法比单纯运用某一种预测方法预测精度更高。并且,由预测值可以看出,到2015年该研究区水位埋深将达到15.39 m,相比2008年递增幅度将达到20%。     

基于改进型前馈神经网络的流域产流预报模型的研究

在分析流域产流机制、影响因素和现行产流计算方法的基础上,首次取前期影响雨量、主产流历时、全过程面平均雨量和４个代表雨强计７个因子作为神经网络输入,直接以流域产流深作为神经网络输出,并针对传统ＢＰ算法的固有缺陷,采用混合ＧＮ－ＢＦＧＳ算法训练网络。实例验证了所建模型及算法的有效性和可行性。还对神经网络隐层单位数等进行了初步研究。