气候变化对植物多样性的影响研究综述

植物多样性是生态系统结构和功能的基础,气候变化已对其产生了深刻的影响,甚至于严重威胁.植物多样性的减少或丧失必然会影响生态系统结构和功能的稳定性,导致严重的生态、经济和社会后果.植物多样性对气候变化的响应受控于气温和水分的动态平衡.本文系统总结了气候变暖和降水格局变化对植物多样性的影响,分析了气候变化对不同生态系统、群...     

东亚夏季风的年际变化及其对环流和降水的影响

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis geopotential height (GHT) and wind at 850 hPa, GHT at 500 hPa, precipitation rate, sea level pressure (SLP) and precipitation observations from more than 600 stations nationwide in June–August from 1951 to 2006, and focusing on the East Asia-West Pacific region (10°–80°N, 70°–180°E), interannual variation of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and its correlations with general circulation and precipitation patterns are studied by using statistical diagnostic methods such as 9-point high pass filtering, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, composite analysis and other statistical diagnosis, etc. It is concluded as follows: (1) EOF analysis of SLP in the East Asia-West Pacific region shows the existence of the zonal dipole oscillation mode (APD) between the Mongolia depression and the West Pacific high, and APD index can be used as an intensity index of EASM. (2) EOF analysis of GHT anomalies at 500 hPa in the East Asia-West Pacific region shows that the first EOF mode is characterized with an obvious meridional East Asian pattern (EAP), and EAP index can also be used as an EASM intensity index. (3) The composite analysis of high/low APD index years reveals the close correlation of APD index with EAP at 500 hPa (or 850 hPa). The study shows an obvious opposite correlation exists between APD index and EAP index with a correlation coefficient of −0.23, which passes the confidence test at 0.10 level. (4) Both APD and EAP indexes are closely correlated with precipitation during flood-prone season in China and precipitation rate over the East Asia-West Pacific region. The significant correlation area at 5% confidence level is mainly located from the southern area of the Yangtze River valley to the ocean around southern Japan, and the former is a positive correlation and the latter is a negative one. Foundation: Cooperative Project funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China, No.2007DFB20210; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.90502003; JICA China-Japan Technical Cooperative Project “China-Japanese Cooperative Research Center on Meteorological Disasters”. Author: Yu Shuqiu, Associate Professor, specialized in climate and climate change.     

河北中关矽卡岩铁矿床钴元素分布规律与沉淀机制研究及意义

河北中关铁矿是“邯邢式”矽卡岩铁矿的代表矿床,本文将中关铁矿床成矿过程划分为5个阶段：干矽卡岩阶段、湿矽卡岩阶段、氧化物阶段、铁铜硫化物阶段和铅锌硫化物阶段。对湿矽卡岩阶段、氧化物阶段和铁铜硫化物阶段的金属矿物（包括黄铁矿、磁铁矿、赤铁矿等）开展电子探针测试,并且对这三个成矿阶段的代表性磁铁矿进行LA-ICP-MS微量元素测试,旨在查明中关铁矿床中Co的赋存状态以及在矿床不同成矿阶段的分布规律,探讨Co元素迁移演化-沉淀机制。研究结果表明,Co主要以类质同象的形式存在于黄铁矿中。不同成矿阶段的Co元素分布不均匀,氧化物阶段黄铁矿和磁铁矿中的Co含量最高,分别为0.12%~1.39%、41×10-6~76×10-6;铁铜硫化物阶段黄铁矿大量出现,且Co含量相对较高,为BDL~0.45%,同时期条带状磁铁矿为32×10-6~71×10-6,故此阶段为Co元素最主要的富集阶段。湿矽卡岩阶段为较高温、弱氧化条件,氧化物阶段温度逐渐降低,氧逸度增加,Co可能主要以CoCl42?形式络合迁移;铁铜硫化物阶段温度进一步降低,但还原性增加,Co可能主要以CoCl42?和Co(HS)+形式络合迁移。温度降低以及氧化还原条件的变化可能是控制Co沉淀的重要因素。     

降雨量、土壤蓄水量对流动沙地土壤水分深层渗漏的影响

土壤水分深层渗漏是陆地近地层水分循环的重要环节。利用土壤水分深层渗漏记录仪对毛乌素沙地典型流动沙丘不同深度土层的土壤渗漏水量连续进行两年定点监测。结果表明：（1）2016年生长季（4月1日至10月31日）降水量为2017年的1.93倍,但50、100、200 cm沙层的渗漏水量分别是2017年同期的4.53、5.53,5.22倍。同时,渗漏水量与降雨量及土壤蓄水量的波峰较一致。（2）强降雨对深层渗漏水量的影响较大,土壤蓄水量的变化也与深层渗漏水量密切相关;降雨量较小时,土壤蓄水量与深层渗漏水量之间的关系更为密切。在连续降雨过程中,越往深处,渗漏的产生通常是多次降雨过程累积的结果,将土壤蓄水量作为中间变量,能更好地分析土壤深层渗漏过程。（3）当天蓄水量与次日渗漏水量的相关系数较高,土层越深,深层渗漏水量与土壤蓄水量的相关系数增加,二者之间的线性拟合的R²也相应增加。     

Tracking climate change in Central Asia through temperature and precipitation extremes

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Under the impacts of climate change and human activities, great uncertainties still exist in the response of climate extremes, especially in Central Asia (CA). In...     

IOD Modoki事件对华南后汛期降水异常的影响及可能机理

利用1979—2019年CN05.1中国区域高分辨率降水格点数据、英国Hadley中心观测海温数据、ERA5逐月大气再分析资料及大气环流模式,研究了华南后汛期期间(7—9月)IOD Modoki事件与华南后汛期降水异常的关系及可能机理。观测资料结果表明,华南后汛期降水异常与热带印度洋中部(东和西部)海温异常呈显著正(负)相关关系,表现为印度洋IOD Modoki或印度洋三极子事件的空间分布型。滤除ENSO信号影响后,华南后汛期降水异常仍和IOD Modoki存在较为密切的联系。IOD Modoki正异常对华南后汛期降水异常的影响有以下途径,一方面,异常水汽从热带印度洋东部向西输送至热带中印度洋后,在北半球受科氏力作用向东输送至华南地区,为华南地区提供了充足的水汽条件,并且对华南地区降水正异常的主要水汽辐合贡献为平均水汽的水平扰动散度项和扰动引起的平均水汽垂直平流项。另一方面,热带东南印度洋海温负异常,通过Mastuno-Gill响应引起对流层低层自热带东南印度洋至热带中印度洋有东南风异常,增强了70°E附近的越赤道气流,在北半球向东输送至西北太平洋,这引起了华南地区对流层低层气旋式环流异常。另外,热带东印度洋对流层低(高)层异常辐散(辐合),华南地区低(高)层异常辐合(辐散)增强了东亚地区的局地Hadley环流,有利于华南地区降水的产生。再者,IOD Modoki引起南亚季风区受异常下沉运动控制,并通过季风-荒漠机制引起副热带北大西洋东部、北非荒漠区及地中海西部周围正涡度异常,激发了沿急流向下游传播的准静止Rossby波,增强了日本海高压异常和华南及邻近地区对流层低层气旋式环流异常。上述原因均有利于华南地区降水的产生,反之亦然。上述结果在数值模式中亦得到了验证。     

空间分辨率对中国夏季降水时空演变特征的影响

本文使用1979—2021年国家气候中心160站(R₁₆₀)和国家级地面气象观测站2 314站(R₂₃₁₄)逐月降水观测资料,利用EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function)分解和相关分析等方法,研究两类资料夏季降水时空变化特征及其与海气因素之间物理联系的表征水平差异,并分析了差异的可能原因。结果表明,R₁₆₀在我国西北、青藏高原等地区站点极为稀疏,导致其各EOF模态对上述地区降水的时空变化特征描述失真,中东部地区偏低的空间分辨率会使局地强降水的变化特征信号损失,造成降水的年际变率降低。而R₂₃₁₄主模态能够更为真实地反映我国降水的时空演变特征,特别是在极端降水频发的江淮地区以及降水受局地地形影响较大的山区,其EOF主模态的空间分布和时间系数演变与ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation)、西太平洋副热带高压、青藏高原雪盖等气候强迫信号之间的相关性更为显著。     

近50年石家庄地-气温差变化特征

利用石家庄17个国家气象站1972—2021年逐日地面气温、0 cm地温资料,分析了石家庄地-气温差的变化特征,结果表明：(1)石家庄地-气温差从1月开始逐渐增加,5月达到最大值5.0℃,然后开始减小,12月达到最小值-0.8℃;地-气温差在11月到次年1月为负值;春、夏、秋季均为正值,夏季最大,春季大于秋季,冬季以负值为主;(2)石家庄多年平均地-气温差在1.6～2.6℃之间,平均为2.1℃;整体上东部大于西部。(3)近50年石家庄年平均地-气温差呈显著的减小趋势,变化速率为-0.14℃/10a;夏、秋、冬三季的减小趋势均非常显著,夏季的减小趋势最强;石家庄市区和近郊站点年和四季地-气温差的减少趋势更显著。本文结论对科学认识石家庄城市生态环境的变化具有参考意义。     

基于新型探测资料对西安一次弱降水预报失误的原因分析

利用微波辐射计、激光测风雷达、多普勒雷达、相控阵雷达等新型探测资料、地面加密观测资料、ERA5再分析及多模式数值预报结果对2022年4月24日西安城区一次弱降水预报出现明显失误的原因进行分析,结果表明：(1)全球数值预报模式和中尺度数值预报模式对本次过程西安城区均报有明显降水,主要原因为模式对低层相对湿度预报明显偏大;(2)多种新型探测数据分析认为近地层湿度条件较差及中层的绝对水汽含量低,中层的干暖空气不利于成云致雨,垂直上升运动不强,且由于低层非常干燥,使水滴在下沉过程中蒸发,从而无法形成雨滴下落,这些原因共同造成西安城区无降水,低层相对湿度预报偏大是造成这次西安城区降水预报失误的主要原因之一;(3)造成西安城区近地层湿度条件差的原因是城市干热岛效应和低层干暖平流输送,且降水云团翻越秦岭后其湿空气绝热下沉至城区后出现增温降湿,使得城区形成较为深厚的干层,即使有雨滴在下落过程中也会造成更强的蒸发,这也是城区没有降水的重要原因之一;(4)预报员主观预报订正出现空报主要是源于对边界层水汽、抬升条件等关键降水要素缺乏订正能力,且对大城市的干热岛效应和秦岭山区地形影响研究不足。     

Comparisons of several evaporation/precipitation datasets for the Bohai Sea based on salinity simulation

Evaporation (E) rate and precipitation (P) rate are two significant meteorological elements required in the ocean baroclinic modeling as external forcings. However, there are some uncertainties in the currently used E/P rates datasets, especially in terms of the data quality. In this study, we collected E/P rates data from ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, HOAPS for the Bohai Sea and nine routine stations around Laizhou Bay, and made comparisons among them. It was found that the differences in E/P rates between land and sea are remarkable, which was due to the difference in underlying surfaces. Therefore, the traditional way of using E/P rates acquired on land directly at sea is not correct. Since no final conclusion has been reached concerning the net water transport between the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea, it is unfeasible to judge the adequacy of the four kinds of data by using the water budget equation. However, the E/P rates at ERA-40 sea points were considered to be the optimal in terms of temporal/spatial coverage and resolution for the hindcast of salinity variation in the Bohai Sea. Besides, using the 3-D hydrodynamic model HAMSOM (HAMburg Shelf Ocean Model), we performed numerical experiments with different E/P datasets and found that the E/P rates at sea points from ERA-40 dataset are better than those from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis dataset. If NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis E/P rates are to be used, they need to be adjusted and tested prior to simulation so that more close-to-reality salinity values can be reproduced.