基于PRISM和泰森多边形的地形要素日降水量空间插值研究

以黑河流域河西走廊中段地区为例,利用该研究区年、月降水与地形间较强的相关性特点,在PRISM方法的基础上对该地区日降水量进行了空间插值计算。文章提出了以月降水量的PRISM空间插值结果为该月逐日降水空间分布的参考本底,利用泰森多边形方法确定空间日降水的概率,从而实现黑河流域河西走廊中段地区日降水的空间制图方法,并对该方法得到的日降水时空数据集进行了误差分析和评估。分析结果表明,这一方法简单可靠,满足分布式水文模型或相关陆表过程分布式模拟对分布式日降水数据时空精度的要求。     

青藏高原40年来降水变化趋势及突变的分析

利用青藏高原84个台站自建站至2001年的气象资料,分析了近40 a来的降水变化时空分布特征、变化趋势及突变,结果表明降水有所增加,最大为10.2%;降水是渐进式的变化,高原主体突变不明显,青海和四川西北部分别于1968年和1972年发生突变。     

SIMULATION OF SUMMER CLIMATE IN CHINA DURING 1997 AND 1998 USING A REGIONAL AIR-SEA COUPLED MODEL

Using the regional air-sea coupled climate model RegCM3-POM,a series of numerical experiments are performed to simulate the summer climate in 1997 and 1998 with different coupling time steps.The results show that the coupled model has good performance on the simulation of the summer sea surface temperature(SST) in 1997 and 1998,and the simulation results of CPL1(with the coupling time step at 1 hour) are similar to those of CPL6(with the coupling time step at 6 hours).The coupled model can well simulate SST differences between 1997 and 1998.As for the simulation of the drought in 1997 and the flood in 1998,the results of CPL6 are more accurate.The coupled model can well simulate the drought in 1997 over North China,and compared with the results of the atmosphere model RegCM3,the simulation ability of the coupled model is improved.The coupling model has better ability in the simulation of the circulation in the middle and low levels,and the water vapor transportation in the coupling model is reasonable in both 1997 and 1998.RegCM3(an uncoupled model) cannot correctly simulate the transportation path differences between 1997 and 1998,but the coupled model can simulate the differences well.     

黄土高原春季降水对青藏高原感热异常的响应

利用1961—2000年黄土高原56站的春季降水和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,采用SVD方法分析了黄土高原春季降水与青藏高原地面感热的关系。结果表明,黄土高原春季降水量与青藏高原地面感热的前两个模态代表了两场间的主要耦合特征,具有高度的时空相关。青藏高原感热对黄土高原降水影响最显著的区域在西部和南部、北部。前期高原感热场的第一、二模态对黄土高原春季干旱的预测具有指示意义。     

青海湖地区植被覆盖及其与气温降水变化的关系

使用1981年到2003年月NDVI(归一化植被指数）资料,计算了青海湖地区植被覆盖度,分析了该地区植被覆盖度的历史演变,发现其值在增大,尤其是从1996到2003年,青海湖地区的植被覆盖度都为正距平,NDVI年平均增长率为1.07×10-3。四季的植被覆盖度均为增加趋势,夏季增加最多。月平均温度与月植被覆盖度、春夏季降水与夏秋季植被覆盖度显著正相关。因此,热量条件和春夏季降水是影响青海湖地区植被生长的关键性因素。     

MESOSCALE ANALYSIS OF YUNNAN SUCCESSIVE HEAVY PRECIPITATION AROUSED BY THE STORM OVER THE BAY IN EARLY SUMMER

By using regular meteorological data, physical quantity fields, satellite pictures and Doppler radar echo data, we analyze the mesoscale features and the conditions of 4 successive heavy precipitation processes in Yunnan aroused by the storm over the Bay in the early summer. The results show that the life of the storm over the Bay is usual 2 or 3 days and the cloud top temperature of the storm is always below -65°C. The storm over the Bay affects Yunnan by mesoscale convective cloud clusters, cloud system in peripheral or weaken itself moving to the northeast. The Tibetan Plateau shear lines and vortexes, NE-SW convergence channels and southwest wind convergence supply favorable circulation background and dynamical conditions. There are many common features about Doppler radar echoes, the flocculent echoes with intensity about 35-45 dBZ move to the east to produce successive precipitation in Yunnan, and the mesoscale features of southwest jet and wind veering with altitude not only are favorable to transport warm and moist airflow brought to the north by the storm over the Bay, but also are favorable to convective development.     

用气象卫星遥感技术监测克拉玛依洪水

利用气象卫星遥感图来监测大降水以及山区水流的分布、洪水形成的大小及流向 ,是利用气象现代化技术监测灾害性天气的一个有效方法。     

动态相似方法在长江上游逐日降水预报中的应用

在考虑环流的动态演变特征在降水预报中重要性的基础上,设计了一种环流演变动态相似预报方法,在１０００ｈＰａ气压场、８５０ｈＰａ温度场、５００ｈＰａ高度场分别提取３个物理意义清晰、又具有立体性和多元性的相似因子,采用本文设计的二级相似标准,以ＥＣＭＷＦ数值预报产品作为预报资料与历史资料库进行滚动映射,寻找最优相似个例,制作长江上游降水面雨量的逐日滚动预报,效果较好。     

利用垂直积分含水量估测降水

讨论了垂直积分含水量 ( QVIL)在估测降水中的实际应用 ,并首次针对其他常规方法做了较为详实的对比实验将 QVIL与 PPI、CAPPI资料在估测降水中的应用进行了对比分析。最后 ,将 QVIL的估测降水结果与雨量站实测资料进行了比较。     

POTENTIAL PREDICTABILITY OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION OVER CHINA

In this paper,based on the data at 70 stations selected evenly over China for 31 years from1961—1991.three methods to estimate climatic noise have been discussed and then the climaticnoise and potential predictability of monthly precipitation(January.July.April and October)havebeen examined.The estimating of climatic noise is based on the method of Madden and improvedmethods of Trenberth and Yamamoto et al.(1985).The potential predictability is approximatedby the ratio of the estimated interannual variation to the natural variation.Generally.the climaticnoise of monthly precipitation over China has obvious seasonal variation and it is greater in summerthan in winter,a bit greater in autumn than in spring.In most areas,the climatic noise isprominently decreasing from south to north and from coast to inland.The potential predictabilityof monthly precipitation also has obvious seasonal and regional difference,but the potentialpredictability is greater in winter than in summer in most parts of China.Whereas the comparisonof spring and autumn is not obvious.Comparing with the method of Madden,the estimated valuesof climatic noise based on the improved methods of Trenberth and Yamamoto et al.are relativelylower.