Monsoonal precipitation variation in the East Asia since A.D. 1840 ——Tree-ring evidences from China and Korea

The main characteristic of the East Asian climate is the monsoon system. Plenty of studies have demonstrated that the Asian monsoon system plays a crucial role in the global climate sys- tem [1-4]. The Asian summer monsoon can be divided into two parts, t…     

Estimating the orientation error of the Dahan Downhole Accelerometer using the maximum cross-correlation coefficient between the observed and synthetic waves

A new algorithm to correct the orientation error of the accelerometerat the Dahan Downhole Array, Hualien, Taiwan is developed. This algorithmconsists of three stages: (1) rotating two horizontal ground motions on thefree surface to the SH-SVdirection and SH axis offers a reference direction.(2) computing the synthetic downhole SH waves at a downhole station and (3)searching a rotation angle for downhole observation that yields a best waveformmatch between the synthetic and observed downhole seismograms. At this point, the rotated angle corresponding to the best waveform match can be considered as the orientation error. We selected five earthquakes with good data qualityfor analysis. Results show that this algorithm gives a more stable estimationthan a conventional method because it allows the selection of data from a wider time window for analyses. The estimated orientation error of the accelerometers at the Dahan Downhole Array after the 1999 reinstallation are40°, 114° and 285° at depths of 50, 100 and 200 m, respectively.     

大同市区二十年地下水动态研究

本文首先分析了大同市地下水开采与地下水降深之间的对应关系，同时分析了影响地下水动态的其它因素，然后将地下水开采和大气降水量这两个影响地下水动态的主要因素与地下水动态进行复相关计算，求出相关方程，并进行不同开采量的地下水降深预测，最后根据这些地下水动态研究结果提出了解决大同市水问题几项对策建议。本文的研究结果同时表明，地下水动态研究非常必要且现实意义明显。通过动态变化可以了解地下水的补排及储水介质的变化情况，利用动态变化规律可以预测水文地质条件的变化趋势，根据地下水动态变化特点可采取有针对性的、灵活的取水方案。可以说，地下水动态研究成果在水资源的开发、利用、保护中具有极大的可利用价值。     

机载激光测深中的波浪改正技术

基于我国新研制的机载激光测深系统基本配置，提出了3种可供选择的波浪改正计算方案(也称为深度值归算方案)，具体分析了3种方案的适用条件和应用范围，并从理论上对3种改正模型的计算精度进行了估算。     

TRMM PR雷达与阜阳雷达降水资料的对比研究

选取了1998年与1999年HUBEX观测资料，将TRMM卫星上的星载降雨雷达PR与阜阳的713数字化天气雷达资料在以下3个方面做了比较：(1)强度场的分布；(2)平均反射率廓线；(3)灵敏度。分析、比较结果可知阜阳雷达在探测灵敏度和水平方向的分辨率要高于PR，但由于波束宽度、衰减和资料转化过程计算误差的原因，其远距离处的观测值与真实值有一定偏差。PR波长短，对衰减敏感，尤其是在垂直方向上经过强衰减后，订正值仍偏小。但由于探测方式的不同PR在水平方向上不存在衰减的问题，且其资料分布均匀，因此提出一种用PR资料来订正地基雷达资料的方法用以提高地基雷达探测的精确度。     

基于GPS基准站网的GPS测量

采用基于GPS基准网的GPS测量可以提高GPS测量的可靠性和准确性 ,可以消除和减小GPS测量观测值中与时间和空间相关的大气误差和轨道误差的影响 ,使中、长距离快速静态定位和RTK动态定位成为现实 ,还具有可直接得到WGS84Z坐标等优点。本文介绍基于GPS基准站网的GPS测量 ,简要地论述GPS虚拟参考站法VRS和区域改正数法FKP的原理、方法和特点 ,以及目前实施中存在的一些问题     

Weather as a Chronic Hazard for Road Transportation in Canadian Cities

Inclement weather creates a chronic hazard for Canadian travellers. Past studies indicate that road collision rates increase during precipitation, although the magnitude of theincrease varies from study to study, partly as a result of variations in weather and driving conditions,but also because of differences in methods. The goal of the current study is to improve ourunderstanding of the links between weather and travel risk in mid-sized Canadian cities by using astandardized method for analyzing data from six cities with different climates: Halifax-Dartmouth,Ottawa, Québec, Hamilton, Waterloo Region, and Regina. The study has four interrelated objectives: (1) Toconduct a sensitivity analysis to determine the extent to which risk estimates vary depending onthe criteria used to define precipitation events and `normal' conditions; (2) To compare therelative risk of collision and injury during precipitation relative to `normal' conditions; (3) Todetermine the extent to which weather-related risks vary fordifferent Canadian cities; and (4) To explore any differences in collision characteristics between events and controls, especially as theyvary from city to city. Results are based on a matched-pair analysis, using six-hour time blocks over afour-year period, 1995 to 1998. Results indicate only modest sensitivity to the criteria used to define precipitation events and `normal' conditions. On average, precipitation is associated with a 75 percentincrease in traffic collisions and a 45 percent increase in related injuries, as compared to `normal'seasonal conditions, but risk levels vary depending on the characteristics of the weather event.Both sensitivity to specific weather conditions and weather-related accident profiles vary from city tocity in ways that are not easily explained.     

Hazard Zoning for Landslides Connected to Torrential Floods in the Jerte Valley (Spain) by using GIS Techniques

The Jerte Valley is anortheast-southwest tending graben located in the mountainous region of west central Spain (Spanish Central System). Mass movements have been a predominant shaping process on the Valley slopes during the Quaternary. Present day activity is characterized as either `first-time failure' (shallow debris slides and debris flows) or `reactivations' of pre-existing landslides deposits.A delineation of landslide hazard zoningwithin the Valley has been carried out by using the detailed documentation of a particular event (a debris slide and a sequel torrential flood, which occurred on the Jubaguerra stream gorge), and GIS techniques. The procedure has had four stages, which are: (1) the elaboration of a susceptibility map (spatial prediction) of landslides; (2) the elaboration of a map of `restricted susceptibility' in the particular case of slopes that are connected to streams and torrents (gorges); (3) the elaboration of a digital model which relates the altitude to the occurrence probability of those particular precipitation conditions which characterized the Jubaguerra event and (4) the combination of the probability model with the `restricted susceptibility map', to establish `critical zones' or areas which are more prone to the occurrence of phenomena that have same typology as this one.     

Paleoclimate reconstruction based on the timing of speleothem growth and oxygen and carbon isotope composition in a cave located in the rain shadow in Israel

High-resolution ²³⁰Th/²³⁴U ages and δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C compositions of speleothems in Ma’ale Efrayim Cave located to the east of the central mountain ridge of Israel enable us to examine the nature of the rain shadow aridity during glacial and interglacial intervals. Speleothem growth occurred during marine glacial isotopic periods, with no growth during the two last marine isotope interglacial intervals and during the peak of the Last Glacial Maximum. This contrasts with speleothem growth in caves located on the western flank of the central mountain ridge, in the Eastern Mediterranean semiarid climatic zone, which continued throughout the last 240,000 yr. Thus, during glacial periods water reached both sides of the central mountain ridge. A comparison of the present-day rain and cave water isotopic compositions and amounts at the Ma’ale Efrayim Cave site with those on the western flank shows that evaporation and higher temperatures on the eastern flank are major influences on isotopic composition and the lack of rainfall. The δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C profiles of the speleothems deposited between 67,000 and 25,000 yr B.P. match the general trends of the isotopic profiles of Soreq Cave speleothems, suggesting a similar source (eastern Mediterranean Sea) and similar climatic conditions. Thus, during glacial periods the desert boundary effectively migrated further south or east from its present-day location on the eastern flank, whereas interglacial periods appear to have been similar to the present, with the desert boundary at the same position. The decrease in overall temperature and a consequent reduction in the evaporation to precipitation ratios on the eastern flank are viewed as the major factors controlling the decay of the rain shadow effect during glacial periods.     

用非线性多因子动态组合方法作降水概率预报

将逐时段定点降水预报这个以往一般作为非连续量处理的预报问题转化为对一个连续的降水可能函数的预报问题。降水可能函数为一由实况值确定的函数。因为现在模式变化较快，且许多因子和降水可能函数为非线性关系，文章采用一种新的非线性多因子动态组合方法，通过对降水可能函数的预报，作客观分站降水概率预报。