Risk assessment for the Yucca Mountain high-level nuclear waste repository site: Estimation of volcanic disruption

In this article, we model the volcanism near the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, U.S.A. by estimating the instantaneous recurrence rate using a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with Weibull intensity and by using a homogeneous Poisson process to predict future eruptions. We then quantify the probability that any single eruption is disruptive in terms of a (prior) probability distribution, since not every eruption would result in disruption of the repository. Bayesian analysis is performed to evaluate the volcanic risk. Based on the Quaternary data, a 90% confidence interval for the instantaneous recurrence rate near the Yucca Mountain site is (1.85×10^–6/yr, 1.26×10^–5/yr). Also, using-these confidence bounds, the corresponding 90% confidence interval for the risk (probability of at least one disruptive eruption) for an isolation time of 10⁴ years is (1.0×10^–3, 6.7×10^–3), if it is assumed that the intensity remains constant during the projected time frame.     

Estimation of exploration potential of a metallogenic unit by parametric modeling of the distribution of mineral occurrences when exploration is incomplete. Case study: Walker Lake quadrangle of Nevada and California

Analysis of the distribution of ore-bodies in space can be useful generally in the estimation of mineral resources or the management of exploration. This study is directed to analysis of the undiscovered potential of well known areas of mining district size, referred to as metallogenic units (MUs). The analysis employs an effort-adjusted and truncated probability model for number of occurrences within a subdivision (quadrat) of a MU and Monte Carlo sampling to generate an approximation to the probability distribution for number of occurrences and number of mines within an MU when it is totally explored. Exploration potential for Monitor, Bodie, Aurora, and Camp Douglas MUs (Walker Lake quadrangle of Nevada and California) are estimated to be 9, 4, 7, and 4 mines, respectively.     

安徽东至查册桥矿区金矿地质特征及找矿潜力分析

查册桥矿区位于江南过渡带，包括牛头高家金矿床、程檀金矿床、路源金矿点和东边金矿化点、杨梅尖金矿点.其中牛头高家金矿是安徽省首次发现的具一定规模的红土型金矿.研究区主体位于东至断裂与高坦断裂带交汇处及其两侧，三岗尖-杨美桥背斜核部及北翼.区内存在多个重要的赋矿层位，主要包括南华系休宁组、南沱组，震旦系蓝田组，寒武系黄柏岭组、杨柳岗组，奥陶系仑山组、东至组.高坦断裂带、兰程畈断裂带、奥陶系/志留系间的推覆-滑覆断层界面均是重要的控岩控矿构造，区内岩浆岩主要受其控制，物化探异常也主要沿其分布.通过对矿床地质特征总结，并结合前人研究成果，对找矿潜力进行分析，认为区内具有寻找低温热液型-叠改型、层控夕卡岩型、岩浆热液脉型金、铜、钨、钼、银、铅锌等矿化的潜力.     

青藏高原地面热力异常对夏季江淮流域持续暴雨形成作用的数值试验

本文采用OSU-AGCM大气环流模式，对青藏高原下垫面热力异常与夏季江淮流域暴雨形成的关系进行了数值试验。模拟结果表明，青藏高原下垫面热力状况的异常对东亚环流形势及云量分布异常的影响是形成1991年夏季江淮流域持续性降水的重要原因之一。青藏高原异常热力强迫还可以引起大范围云量的异常分布和云量异常区类似于二维Rossby波列没大圆路径传播的特征。     

用CAPPI和PPI资料测定区域降水量精度比较

应用上海中心气象台７１４数字化天气雷达的体积扫描资料所得的不同高度上的ＣＡＰＰＩ资料和低仰角时ＰＰＩ资料。估算区域降水量并得到降水量分布形势。然后采用平均校准法进行了校准，最后又与用雨量计网测量的区域降水量及其分布形势作了比较，得到一些有意义的结果。     

云南双沟变质橄榄岩中蛇纹石的稀土元素空间分布

本文探讨变质橄榄岩的ＬＲＥＥ富集型及Ｕ型分布的ＲＥＥ球粒陨石模型，是橄榄石固有的还是后期蚀变形成的。并寻求复原蚀变前橄榄石的ＲＥＥ丰度及型式。我们用蛇纹石颗粒代表蚀变后的橄榄石，用分选法和化学分层剥离法对样品进行予处理。用中子活化分析（ＮＡＡ）手段进行了测试。结果表明：分选法确定了ＬＲＥＥ的主要赋存载体是蛇纹石。分层剥离最后内核的ＲＥＥ丰度及模型，可近似地作为原来（未蚀变前）橄榄石的ＲＥＥ丰度及模型。     

四川盆地川西坳陷高异常地层压力分布特征

本文通过分析川西坳陷２０多个含气构造的主要地层压力资料，对川坳陷高异常地层压力的分布特征有了一定的认识。认为川西高异常地层压力在纵向层位上主要分布于侏罗系和上三叠统，压力分段明显，相同的力段在不同的构造既不等时也不等深；在平面上高异常地层压力分布广泛，超高压区刚分布于川西北地区，并形成两个超高压中心，整个高异常地层压力的分布虽然总体上基本一致，但在不同层位，不同时期也存在着差异。     

从钠溪气田看阳新统裂缝型气藏分布复杂性

本文以纳溪气田的实际资料，特别是纳６井裂缝系统的典型资料，裂缝系统在纵横向上的分布具明显的方向性和系统中流体分布异常，剖析川南地区二叠系阳新统裂缝型气藏分布的复杂性，为裂缝型气藏的勘探提供借鉴。