1480-1940年广东地区气候干湿变化与旱涝灾害区域分异特征

1 IntroductionThe natural disasters, especially the flood and drought disasters, have occurred frequently inG uangdong area since ancienttim es.A ccording to historic statisticaldata,since the 17th century,the occurrence of the flood and drought disasters…     

环境蠕变对农业病虫草鼠害的潜在影响

重点讨论了在全球气候变暖的大背景下,农业病虫草鼠害加重和新的病虫草鼠出现也作为一种蠕变现象正在遭受气候变化的影响和冲击。其主要表现在农业有害生物(病、虫、草、鼠)地理分布范围扩大、越冬界限北移、农田害虫害鼠发育时间缩短、繁殖代数增加、种群增长率加快、发生提早、危害加重、病毒病增加、新病虫草鼠出现等等。     

粤北中亚热带地区气候生态特征与经济建设发展

论述了广东北部中亚热带的划分界线和划分依据,并根据中亚热带的生态气候特征,提出了趋利避害、合理利用气候资源发展经济建设的建议。     

断层地表潜在突发位移的概率评价初探

目前跨活动断层的线状工程的抗断设防仍采用确定性评价方法 ,考虑的是最大位错量 ,与抗御灾害的风险设计的实际要求不相符。文中将断层上最大位错点的位置分布及最大位错点两侧的位错展布 ,与可产生地表突发位移的强震复发模型联合 ,建立了评估活动断层各部位的地表潜在突发位移的概率性评价方法。最后 ,以怀涿盆地北缘正断裂中的沈庄 -长疃段为例 ,对其未来 10 0a潜在突发位移的危险性做出定量评估 ,给出了断层段上各点不同超越概率水平下的潜在位移。这一研究结果 ,可为跨断裂的线型工程进行抗御地表潜在突发位移的风险设计提供参考     

Evaluation of Liquefaction Potential Index Along Western Coast of South Korea Using SPT and CPT

For South Korea, liquefaction potential along the western coast has not been widely assessed because South Korea is considered to be a low seismic hazard. However, recent earthquake events and historical records indicate that the seismic hazard of South Korea should not be ignored. Moreover, as artificial fills are extensively used along the western coast for development, liquefaction evaluation of the soils in this area is necessary. In this paper, we present: (1) the seismic characteristics of the study area; (2) procedures for evaluating liquefaction potential, focusing on the liquefaction potential index (LPI) approach; and (3) LPI distributions at several representative locations along the western coast of South Korea under various seismic scenarios. The liquefaction potential index represents the liquefaction potential over the upper 20 m of a boring or sounding. Using cone penetration test (CPT) and standard penetration test (SPT) data from two coastal sites, we compare and discuss CPT-based and SPT-based LPI values, particularly values computed in nonplastic, silt-rich soils. In these soils, it appears that the CPT yields lower liquefaction resistance, resulting in large LPI values. Finally, discussion and suggestions are provided for CPT- and SPT-based liquefaction assessment of low plasticity and high fines content soils.     

Notes on laboratory rearing of juvenile spiny lobsters,jasus edwardsii (hutton) (crustacea: Decapoda: Palinuridae)

Post‐puerulus specimens of Jasus edwardsii (Hutton) have been successfully reared in the laboratory from the puerulus stage for periods of up to 12 months. The spiny lobsters were reared in concrete‐asbestos tanks measuring 2.4m × 37cm × 23cm. The tanks were supplied with a continuous flow of sea water and provided with constant aeration. Empty shells of paua (Haliotis iris Martyn) and rocks from the intertidal zone provided cover within the tanks.

Fresh mussel (Mytilus sp.) was preferred to all other foods tried in feeding experiments. The animals were fed every second day on opened mussels, and occasionally on fresh fish. The juveniles “grazed” actively on the calcareous algae (Corallina officinalis L.) present on the rocks.

The animals were extremely sensitive to pollution. To reduce pollution risks all sediments were removed from each tank, as the interstices between them were found to harbour uneaten food particles. Any uneaten foods were siphoned out every second day and each tank was thoroughly cleaned every six to eight weeks.

From a total of over 3,300 animals collected since November 1965, over 800 are presently being reared in the laboratory and various aspects of their ecology studied. The first step in raising larger adult sizes from juvenile stages in the laboratory is clearly possible.     

Updated Support Vector Machine for Seismic Liquefaction Evaluation Based on the Penetration Tests

Simplified techniques based on in situ testing methods are commonly used to predict liquefaction potential. Many of these simplified methods are based on finding the liquefaction boundary separating two categories (the occurrence or non-occurrence of liquefaction) through the analysis of liquefaction case histories. As the liquefaction classification problem is highly nonlinear in nature, it is difficult to develop a comprehensive model taking into account all the independent variables, such as the seismic and soil properties, using conventional modeling techniques. Hence, in many of the conventional methods that have been proposed, simplified assumptions have been made. In this study, an updated support vector machine (SVM) based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to evaluate liquefaction potential in two separate case studies. One case is based on standard penetration test (SPT) data and the other is based on cone penetration test (CPT) data. The SVM model effectively explores the relationship between the independent and dependent variables without any assumptions about the relationship between the various variables. This study serves to demonstrate that the SVM can “discover” the intrinsic relationship between the seismic and soil parameters and the liquefaction potential. Comparisons indicate that the SVM models perform far better than the conventional methods in predicting the occurrence or non-occurrence of liquefaction.     

突发地质灾害气象预警统计模型与应用

通过引入地质灾害潜势度,突发地质灾害气象预警统计模型解决了雨量判据法不能明确表达地质环境条件的问题,在此基础上,提出了潜势度计算、大气降雨变量设计、预警方程优化3方面的改进方法。为提高潜势度计算的准确性,增加了基于卡方检验的地质环境因子独立性判别步骤;对地质环境因子确信程度初始值和权值计算中确信程度变化量初始值设置进行了规定;并将预警模型中累计雨量修正为更为合理的有效累计雨量。在现有的预警方程的基础上提出了基于联合概率分析的预警方程,避免了其与基本地质认识和物理规律存在一定距离、方程系数的意义不明确的局限。以2009年7月2日发布的24 h雨量预报为例,计算结果表明：虽然预报区域面积从101 008 km²减小到27 553 km²,但是地质灾害点落入预报区的比例从44%增加到62%。这说明通过改进的预警模型理论上更加严密,空间准确率有所提高,空报率有所下降。     

鄂尔多斯盆地上古生界山西组页岩气成藏条件及勘探潜力

为了研究鄂尔多斯盆地上古生界页岩气的勘探潜力,对鄂尔多斯盆地二叠系山西组富有机质泥页岩样品有机地球化学、物性特征及等温吸附等方面测试获得的参数进行了数理统计和测井响应特征分析。研究发现：有效泥页岩单层厚度变化较大,最厚可达15 m以上,盆地主体部位w(TOC)一般大于1.0%,有机质类型主要为Ⅱ₂型及Ⅲ型,镜质体反射率平均为1.66%,属于成熟-高成熟阶段,有利于有机质热解生气,具备页岩气成藏的基本地质条件。黏土矿物主要以伊利石（44.9%）和高岭石（33.6%）为主,泥页岩孔隙度平均为3.98%,渗透率平均为0.133×10^-3 μm²。泥页岩吸附含气量平均为1.94 m³/t。综合考虑泥页岩有效厚度、有机质丰度、有机质类型、热演化程度以及含气量等因素,预测鄂尔多斯盆地山西组页岩气有利区主要位于天环坳陷西北角、陕北斜坡带东北角及盆地中南部等区域。     

黔东南天锦黎地区矿田级金矿定位预测——兼论勘查及研究程度较低地区的矿产预测方法

黔东南天柱-锦屏-黎平地区金矿勘查及研究程度较低,在进行矿产预测时必须有针对性地进行成矿地质背景、成矿规律、物化遥信息、找矿标志、预测要素等专题研究,更多关注成矿地质背景、成矿规律对矿产预测的主导作用,找准影响矿产预测的主要因素,客观适度地赋予物化遥信息对矿产预测的权重。同时,在条件不成熟时可将预测精度降至矿田-矿床级的定位预测,从整体上评价每个金矿田的找矿远景,并对某些部位找到矿床的可能性作进一步评述。采用了多种预测要素权重的简单相加法进行定位预测,而未具体开展基于GIS的定量预测,意在强调地质勘查及研究程度较低地区开展各项专题研究的重要性,并探讨简化矿产预测程序的可行性。经尝试,适宜于该类地区矿田级定位预测的简化流程为：a.相关专题研究;b.预测要素研究及赋值;c.各矿田成矿概率的计算及找矿远景分类;d.各矿田资源潜力评价。通过该方法尝试,该区获得找矿远景区A类4个、B类3个、C类3个。