东亚夏季风降雨的可预报性研究

本文根据CMAP(The Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation)观测资料,使用相关系数和均方根误差,对CHFP2(Coupled Historical Forecast Project, phase 2 )的2个模式对东亚夏季降雨的季节预报技巧作出评价。在完美模式的理论框架下,分别使用基于信噪比的潜在相关系数和基于信息熵的潜在可预报性指标,对该区域主要针对夏季降雨的可预报性作出评价。通过最可预报分量分析(PrCA),得到季节降雨的最可预报型。将最可预报型投影到海温场,得到了降水最可预报型对应的海温分布。研究发现:相关系数所反映的预报和观测的线性相关程度总体上是低纬度海洋区域比高纬度陆地区域高,而均方根误差反映的则是在海洋区域降雨预报偏离实际值的程度较陆地区域大,预报水平与目前降雨的季节预报水平相符。潜在可预报性估计表明,潜在可预报率存在空间上的变化,从低纬度向高纬度、从海洋到内陆,呈衰减趋势。同时,信号和噪音的分析表明,信号成分占主导作用,形成了潜在可预报率的空间分布格局,暗示了海洋外强迫的重要作用;中国大陆缺少像海洋区域那样明显的外强迫,因此降水季节预报技巧相比热带海洋区域非常有限。海温投影的分析表明海洋的外强迫是东亚降雨季节预报的重要来源。尽管厄尔尼诺本身的复杂性,它对东亚夏季风的重要影响及其与东亚降雨预报之间的遥相关揭示了它们内在的联系。     

1990-2050年间贵州省东南部森林植被碳蓄积及固碳潜力分析

本文以贵州省东南部三州为研究区,运用连续生物量转换因子法和平均生物量法,通过2010年森林清查小班数据,建立了24类优势树种的森林植被碳密度与林龄之间的关系。同时,估算了1990-2010年间贵州省东南部森林植被生物量及其碳蓄积量,分析了碳蓄积量的时空变化特征,并预测出2050年该区域森林植被的固碳潜力。结果显示：（1）2010年贵州省东南部森林植被碳蓄积量为106.22 TgC,占贵州省森林植被碳蓄积量的63.01%,占全国森林植被碳蓄积量的1.36%;平均碳密度32.44 MgC/hm²,是贵州省森林植被平均碳密度的93%,全国森林植被平均碳密度的76%,碳密度空间分布呈现由西部向东部增加趋势且东部高于平均水平。（2）1990-2000年间森林植被碳蓄积量增加了30.67 TgC;2000-2010年间森林植被碳蓄积量增加了49.55 TgC,其中,退耕还林导致森林植被碳蓄积量增加了31.09 TgC。（3）以2010年为基准年,假设40 a后贵州省东南部森林面积保持稳定,且不考虑轮伐期的未来情景下,至2050年该区域森林植被碳蓄积量将达到153.38 TgC,其增量可达47.16 TgC,表明贵州省东南部森林具有较大的碳增汇潜力。     

Apparent redox potential discontinuity (aRPD) depth as a relative measure of sediment oxygen content and habitat quality

As hypoxic conditions spread in our oceans, indices that quickly and efficiently assess oxygen content in sediment pore water, and habitat quality are increasingly becoming desirable. Depth to the appa...     

广西荣华锰矿床地质特征及发现意义

广西荣华锰矿位于三叠系百逢组,在该地层中发现的工业锰矿床尚未见报道。通过对该矿区大比例尺地质填图,并结合地质工程和测试分析等手段,对矿床地质背景、沉积环境、矿体和矿石特征、沉积演化等进行分析研究,推测荣华锰矿为沉积-淋滤锰帽型矿床,矿体顺层分布于靠近罗楼组碳酸盐岩的百逢组第一段泥岩、泥质粉砂岩中,严格受地层和构造控制。矿石主要由偏锰酸矿、软锰矿等组成,矿石品位偏低,伴生Co等金属元素。百逢组之下的碳酸盐岩和百逢组第一段浊积砾岩层可作为该类锰矿上下界线典型的找矿标志。中三叠世桂西北处于盆包台构造格局,中晚古生代富含锰的台地在三叠纪遭受风化剥蚀,成矿元素被带入弧后盆地。随着特提斯洋闭合,挤压作用使盆地面积变小,水位加深,氧化还原界面波动,在百逢组第一段锰元素初步富集。后右江盆地抬升露出水面遭受剥蚀,风化淋滤作用最终形成该区顺层分布的氧化锰矿床。桂西广泛出露百逢组地层,其第一段具有良好的找矿前景。     

交城断裂带北段最大潜在地震发震概率评估1

基于太原市目标区交城断裂带的定量研究,特别是对活动断裂上的古地震资料进行的系统、详细的分析与总结,建立了反映该断裂地震地质特点和运动学属性的复发模式和概率模型.引入震级-地表破裂长度、震级-震源破裂长度、震级-断层破裂面积以及震级-地震矩的经验关系进行震级估计,最后进行综合评估以确定交城断裂带北段潜在地震的最大震级.复发模式的建立兼顾了泊松和准周期两种模式,利用专家意见法组合相应的Poisson模型和BPT模型,计算活动断裂最大潜在地震的复发概率.结果表明,交城断裂带北段潜在地震最大震级为Ms7.2级,而未来50a、100a、200a发生Ms7.2级地震的概率分别为2.1％、4.0％和7.9％.     

Seismic inversion with generalized Radon transform based on local second-order approximation of scattered field in acoustic media

Sound velocity inversion problem based on scattering theory is formulated in terms of a nonlinear integral equation associated with scattered field. Because of its nonlinearity, in practice, linearization algorisms (Born/single scattering approximation) are widely used to obtain an approximate inversion solution. However, the linearized strategy is not congruent with seismic wave propagation mechanics in strong perturbation (heterogeneous) medium. In order to partially dispense with the weak perturbation assumption of the Born approximation, we present a new approach from the following two steps: firstly, to handle the forward scattering by taking into account the second-order Born approximation, which is related to generalized Radon transform (GRT) about quadratic scattering potential; then to derive a nonlinear quadratic inversion formula by resorting to inverse GRT. In our formulation, there is a significant quadratic term regarding scattering potential, and it can provide an amplitude correction for inversion results beyond standard linear inversion. The numerical experiments demonstrate that the linear single scattering inversion is only good in amplitude for relative velocity perturbation ( \( \delta_{c}/c_{0} \) ) of background media up to 10 %, and its inversion errors are unacceptable for the perturbation beyond 10 %. In contrast, the quadratic inversion can give more accurate amplitude-preserved recovery for the perturbation up to 40 %. Our inversion scheme is able to manage double scattering effects by estimating a transmission factor from an integral over a small area, and therefore, only a small portion of computational time is added to the original linear migration/inversion process.     

Yearly tropical cyclone potential impact index in China

A new composite index called the yearly tropical cyclone potential impact(YTCPI)is introduced.The relationship between YTCPI and activities of tropical cyclones(TCs)in China,disaster loss,and main ambient fields are investigated to show the potential of YTCPI as a new tool for short-term climate prediction of TCs.YTCPI can indicate TC activity and potential disaster loss.As correlation coefficients between YTCPI and frequency of landfalling TCs,the frequency of TCs traversing or forming inside a 24 h warning line in China from 1971 to 2010 are 0.58 and 0.56,respectively(both are at a statistically significant level,aboveα=0.001).Furthermore,three simple indexes are used to compare with YTCPI.They all have very close relationships with it,with correlation coefficients 0.75,0.82 and 0.78.For economic loss and YTCPI,the correlation coefficient is 0.57 for 1994–2009.Information on principal ambient fields(sea surface temperature,850 and 500 hPa geopotential heights)during the previous winter is reflected in the relationship with YTCPI.Spatial and temporal variabilities of ambient fields are extracted through empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis.Spatial distributions of correlation coefficient between YTCPI and ambient fields match the EOF main mode.Correlation coefficients between YTCPI and the EOF time array for the three ambient fields are 0.46,0.44 and 0.4,respectively,all statistically significant,aboveα=0.01.The YTCPI has the overall potential to be an improved prediction tool.     

The effects of asymmetric potential vorticity forcing on the instability of South Asia High and Indian summer monsoon onset

Based on the theory of potential vorticity(PV),the unstable development of the South Asia High(SAH)due to diabatic heating and its impacts on the Indian Summer Monsoon(ISM)onset are studied via a case diagnosis of 1998.The Indian Summer Monsoon onset in 1998 is related to the rapidly strengthening and northward moving of a tropical cyclone originally located in the south of Arabian Sea.It is demonstrated that the rapid enhancement of the cyclone is a consequence of a baroclinic development characterized by the phase-lock of high PV systems in the upper and lower troposphere.Both the intensification of the SAH and the development of the zonal asymmetric PV forcing are forced by the rapidly increasing latent heat released from the heavy rainfall in East Asia and South East Asia after the onsets of the Bay of Bengal(BOB)monsoon and the South China Sea(SCS)monsoon.High PV moves southwards along the intensified northerlies on the eastern side of the SAH and travels westwards on its south side,which can reach its northwest.Such a series of high PV eddies are transported to the west of the SAH continuously,which is the main source of PV anomalies in the upper troposphere over the Arabian Sea from late spring to early summer.A cyclonic curvature on the southwest of the SAH associated with increasing divergence,which forms a strong upper tropospheric pumping,is generated by the anomalous positive PV over the Arabian Sea on 355 K.The cyclone in the lower troposphere moves northwards from low latitudes of the Arabian Sea,and the upper-layer high PV extends downwards and southwards.Baroclinic development thus occurs and the tropical low-pressure system develops into an explosive vortex of the ISM,which leads to the onset of the ISM.In addition,evolution of subtropical anticyclone over the Arabian Peninsula is another important factor contributing to the onset of the ISM.Before the onset,the surface sensible heating on the Arabian Peninsula is very strong.Consequently the subtropical anticyclone which dominated the Arabian Sea in spring retreats westwards to the Arabian Peninsula and intensifies rapidly.The zonal asymmetric PV forcing develops gradually with high PV eddies moving southwards along northerlies on the eastern side of the anticyclone,and a high PV trough is formed in the middle troposphere over the Arabian Sea,which is favorable to the explosive barotropic development of the tropical cyclone into the vortex.Results from this study demonstrate that the ISM onset,which is different from the BOB and the SCS monsoon onset,is a special dynamical as well as thermodynamic process occurring under the condition of fully coupling of the upper,middle,and lower tropospheric circulations.     

The geobiological formation process of the marine source rocks in the Middle Permian Chihsia Formation of South China

The Chihsia Formation is one of the four sets of regional marine hydrocarbon source rocks from South China.In the past two decades,detailed geochemical and sedimentological studies have been carried out to investigate its origination,which have demonstrated that the high primary productivity plays a primary role in the deposition of sediments enriched in the organic matter.However,the mechanism of this high productivity and the path of the deposition and burial of the organic matter have always been a mystery.Based on the previous studies on the Shangsi Section in Guangyuan City,Sichuan Province,we proposed that the development of the equatorial upwelling due to the sea level rise is responsible for the relatively high productivity in the Chihsia Formation.The sea waters with high nutrient were transported by the sub-surface currents along the equator.High organic carbon flux was deposited on the deeper shelf,and then decomposed by bacteria,leading to the occurrence of anaerobic respiration.The metabolism of the microorganisms consumed the dissolved oxygen in waters,which was in favor of the preservation of the organic matter.This suggested geobiological model integrating with paleoclimatology,paleoceanography and geomicrobiology will help us to understand the causes of this particular sedimentary sequence.     

1965-2012年甘肃平凉地区大雪天气气候特征

利用甘肃平凉地区7个气象自动站1965-2012年的逐日气象整编资料, 统计出近48 a来大雪天气出现次数, 分析了平凉大雪天气的统计特征和气候变化规律, 然后用近14 a历史天气图资料对31次大雪过程进行对比分型, 总结出三类天气形势的特征. 结果表明: 1965-2012年48 a来, 平凉大雪天气出现次数总体变化趋势不显著; 大雪天气多集中出现在秋冬、冬春冷暖季节交替的时期, 冬春交替期间出现次数多于秋冬交替期间, 隆冬季节出现次数相对较少. 平凉产生大雪天气的主要天气形势有三类: 高原低槽型、西风带小槽型和阻高-横槽型, 三类形势中最多的是高原低槽型, 其他两类出现概率相差不到10个百分点.