2012年北苏门答腊西海域M_W8.6地震的孕震机理及其对地震活动性的影响

2012年4月11日在北苏门答腊的西部海域附近发生了MW8.6特大地震和2小时后的MW8.2强烈地震,这是到目前为止震级最大的板块内部走滑型地震。本文根据该地区的地质构造、地球物理观测资料及研究结果,对这次地震的孕育背景进行了分析,认为本次地震尽管发生于印度洋板块的沃顿海盆内(巽它海沟西南),但该地区断层发育、中强地震活跃、变形情况复杂,特别是印度洋板块在向NW方向运动时速度由南向北逐渐减小,这种差异运动导致在板块内部产生剪切应力,因此在板块内部近SN向的断层及附近区域不断积累弹性应变能;同时2004年的MW9.2地震产生的库仑应力变化对该次地震造成了应力加载,起到了触发作用,最终导致了本次特大左旋走滑型地震的发生。此外库仑应力变化计算表明,MW8.6地震在MW8.2地震的震源区附近的库仑应力增大,增加值超过0.05MPa,因此对MW8.2地震起到了触发作用。计算结果进一步显示,该次地震对其周围陆地影响较小,苏门答腊岛处于地震影响区中,库仑应力降低了0.03MPa,发生强余震的风险下降。主震后的余震活动的空间分布与库仑应力增加区一致。本次MW8.6特大地震后,全球范围内的M≥5.5地震活动性出现了大幅度的上升,而该现象在本世纪以来其他5次M≥8.5的强震之后并未出现;同样,该次特大地震对中国大陆的地震活动性也有一定的影响,震后中国大陆地区M>4.5地震活动水平明显增高。     

Ometepec-Pinotepa Nacional,Mexico Earthquake of 20 March 2012 (Mw 7.5): A preliminary report

An analysis of local and regional data produced by the shallow, thrust Ometepec-Pinotepa Nacional earthquake (M_w 7.5) of 20 March 2012 shows that it nucleated at 16.254°N 98.531°W, about 5 km offshore at a depth of about 20 km. During the first 4 seconds the slip was relatively small. It was followed by rupture of two patches with large slip, one updip of the hypocenter to the SE and the other downdip to the north. Total rupture area, estimated from inversion of near-source strong-motion recordings, is ~25 km × 60 km. The earthquake was followed by an exceptionally large number of aftershocks. The aftershock area overlaps with that of the 1982 doublet (M_w 7.0, 6.9). However, the seismic moment of the 2012 earthquake is ~3 times the sum of the moments of the doublet, indicating that the gross rupture characteristics of the two earthquake episodes differ. The small-slip area near the hypocenter and large-slip areas of the two patches are characterized by relatively small aftershock activity. A striking, intense, linear NE alignment of the aftershocks is clearly seen. The radiated energy to seismic moment ratios, (E_s/M₀), of five earthquakes in the region reveal that they are an order of magnitude smaller for near-trench earthquakes than those that occur further downdip (e.g., 2012 and the 1995 Copala earthquakes). The near-trench earthquakes are known to produce low A_max. The available information suggests that the plate interface in the region can be divided in three domains. (1) From the trench to a distance of about 35 km downdip. In this domain M~6 to 7 earthquakes with low values of (E_s/M₀) occur. These events generate large number of aftershocks. It is not known whether the remaining area on this part of the interface slips aseismically (stable sliding) or is partially locked. (2) From 35 to 100 km from the trench. This domain is seismically coupled where stick-slip sliding occurs, generating large earthquakes. Part of the area is probably conditionally stable. (3) From 100 to 200 km from the trench. In this domain slow slip events (SSE) and nonvolcanic tremors (NVT) have been reported.The earthquake caused severe damage in and near the towns of Ometepec and Pinotepa Nacional. The PGA exceeded 1 g at a soft site in the epicentral region. Observed PGAs on hard sites as a function of distance are in reasonable agreement with the expected ones from ground motion prediction equations derived using data from Mexican interplate earthquakes. The earthquake was strongly felt in Mexico City. PGA at CU, a hard site in the city, was 12 gal. Strong-motion recordings in the city since 1985 demonstrate that PGAs during the 2012 earthquake were not exceptional, and that similar motion occurs about once in three years.     

Mapping the London 2012 Olympics

Abstract

The London 2012 Olympic Games was a true spectacle of sporting achievement. It also provided the impetus for official organisations, news media and individuals to turn the vast amount of data into map form. This paper provides an outline of some of the cartographic highlights (and one or two lowlights) that the Olympics inspired. There were some great maps on view and also some interesting trends emerging, particularly in terms of web maps and web maps used as infographics. In particular, the Dorling cartogram saw widespread use, particularly to map medal tallies by online news media.     

Post-2012 CDM multi-criteria analysis of industries in six Asian countries: Iranian case study

The prospects of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and for carbon income, up to and beyond 2012, in the industrial sectors of Iran and five other Asian countries are investigated. The attractiveness and suitability of each host country, the status of their industrial sectors (based on four post-2012 scenarios), and the post-2012 potential of the CDM (or similar carbon projects) in these sectors are all examined. A multi-criteria analysis of Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, China, and India, based on seven sets of criteria (institutional, regulatory, economic, political, social, CDM experience, and energy production/consumption), is conducted, and the post-2012 potential carbon incomes of each country – based on CO₂e emissions of industrial processes – are calculated. Finally, the Iranian industrial sector and the impact of deregulation of energy prices are examined. The post-2012 potential savings in the Iranian industrial sector are calculated based on energy savings, carbon income, and environmental savings. The results indicate that there is strong demand for investment and new technology in this sector to combat several-fold energy price increases. Moreover, high-priced carbon credits could play a meaningful role in post-2012 energy policies in this sector.

Policy relevance

This research is the first study to quantify the carbon market potentials in the industrial sectors of the selected Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members. The Kyoto Protocol is considered by most OPEC countries to be a mixed bag of threats and opportunities and they have shown ambivalence towards it, mainly due to the threat a reduction of fossil fuel consumption poses to their economies. On the other hand, energy efficiency is a desirable goal for their industrial sectors. Iran, as an OPEC member country with vast energy resources, has mostly ignored the CDM during the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol and has performed poorly on CDM implementation. However, the current deregulation of energy prices in Iran, with profound cuts in energy subsidies, would definitely alter the perspective of its industrial decision makers on the post-2012 carbon potentials.     

China's carbon emissions and international trade: implications for post-2012 policy

Growing international trade has been one of the most important drivers for China's recent economic growth. This growth has fed rapid increases in energy demand and carbon emissions since 2000. China is now the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide. There is mounting pressure from some in the international community for China to take specific actions to mitigate its emissions as part of a post-2012 climate regime. However, emissions embodied in internationally traded goods have not been given enough attention in this debate. This article discusses the results of research to quantify the emissions stemming from goods that are exported from China to other countries. It finds that these emissions accounted for 23% of China's national total in 2004. The article sets out how this result has been obtained and compares it to the results of several other pieces of research to demonstrate the importance of this issue. Some pointers for international climate policy are then discussed, including the advantages and difficulties of moving to consumption-based emissions accounting, and implications for international trade rules.     

Lessons from carbon markets for designing an effective REDD architecture

Consideration of incentives for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) is now formally part of the post-2012 climate change negotiations. A significant amount of financing will be required to make REDD a success, but the design of the REDD architecture can determine the availability of capital. Therefore, in negotiations this should be considered at the same time and on an equal basis with methodological and political considerations. Detailed consideration is given to the type of commitment, the financing mechanism, the level of incentive allocation, and the fungibility of carbon credits, in the context of experience from existing carbon markets. We conclude that a financially successful REDD mechanism would be based on a strong regulatory framework with mandatory targets, market-based, with some degree of project-level crediting, creating fungible REDD credits, subject to a cap.     

Sector-based approach to the post-2012 climate change policy architecture

A sectoral approach to GHG emissions reductions in developing countries is proposed as a key component of the post-2012 climate change mitigation framework. In this approach, the ten highest-emitting developing countries in the electricity and other major industrial sectors pledge to meet voluntary, ‘no-lose’ GHG emissions targets in these sectors. No penalties are incurred for failing to meet a target, but emissions reductions achieved beyond the target level earn emissions reduction credits (ERCs) that can be sold to industrialized nations. Participating developing countries establish initial ‘no-lose’ emissions targets, based upon their national circumstances, from sector-specific energyintensity benchmarks that have been developed by independent experts. Industrialized nations then offer incentives for the developing countries to adopt more stringent emissions targets through a ‘Technology Finance and Assistance Package’, which helps to overcome financial and other barriers to technology transfer and deployment. These sectorspecific energy-intensity benchmarks could also serve as a means for establishing national economy-wide targets in developed countries in the post-2012 regime. Preliminary modelling of a hybrid scenario, in which Annex I countries adopt economy-wide absolute GHG emissions targets and high-emitting developing countries adopt ‘no-lose’ sectoral targets, indicates that such an approach significantly improves the likelihood that atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ can be stabilized at 450 ppmv by the end of the century.     

基于PCI2012系统的WorldView-2立体影像DEM自动提取方法研究

利用航天遥感卫星立体影像自动提取数字高程模型是当前研究的热点之一,PCI2012系统则是常用的遥感卫星影像处理系统。PCI2012系统在自动提取DEM时应用所采用的影像校正模型主要有通用成像模型和严格物理模型两种模型。本文基于PCI2012系统,利用WorldView-2立体影像数据,对同一地区分别采用以上两种不同的校正模型提取DEM,对获取的DEM精度进行了对比,并分析了影像DEM精度的主要因素。     

The soft X-ray novae, black-hole candidates XTE J2012+381 and XTE J 1550-564

In 1998–1999, the X-ray transients XTE J2012+381 and XTE J1550-564 were observed with the TTM X-ray telescope onboard the Mir-Kvant astrophysical module. Spectral properties of these sources on the descent of the light curve after the secondary maxima of their outbursts are studied. Upper limits on the off-state flux are given. Comparison with other X-ray novae observed with the TTM telescope leads us to conclude that XTE J2012+381 and XTE J 1550-564 are soft X-ray novae. XTE J2012+381 probably belongs to the subclass of long-period X-ray transients.     

Geometric characterization of the Arjuna orbital domain

Arjuna‐type orbits are characterized by being Earth‐like, having both low‐eccentricity and low‐inclination. Objects following these trajectories experience repeated trappings in the 1:1 commensurability with the Earth and can become temporary Trojans, horseshoe librators, quasi‐satellites, and even transient natural satellites. Here, we review what we know about this peculiar dynamical group and use a Monte Carlo simulation to characterize geometrically the Arjuna orbital domain, studying its visibility both from the ground and with the European Space Agency Gaia spacecraft. The visibility analysis from the ground together with the discovery circumstances of known objects are used as proxies to estimate the current size of this population. The impact cross‐section of the Earth for minor bodies in this resonant group is also investigated. We find that, for ground‐based observations, the solar elongation at perigee of nearly half of these objects is less than 90°. They are best observed by space‐borne telescopes, but Gaia is not going to improve significantly the current discovery rate for members of this class. Our results suggest that the size of this population may have been underestimated by current models. On the other hand, their intrinsically low encounter velocities with the Earth induce a 10–1000‐fold increase in the impact cross‐section with respect to what is typical for objects in the Apollo or Aten asteroid populations. We estimate that their probability of capture as transient natural satellites of our planet is about 8 %. (© 2015 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)