Appraisal of Seismic Hazard Parameters for the Seismic Regions of the East Circum-Pacific Belt Inferred from a Bayesian Approach

The assessment of seismic hazard parameters is important in the seismically active regions. A straightforward approach is considered for the statistical estimation of the maximum values of earthquake hazard parameters. The Bayesian estimator is suggested and emphasis is given to the evaluation of the maximum possible M_max (regional) magnitude in a future time interval T. This approach allows the uncertainty of earthquake magnitude to be accounted for. Seismic hazard parameters like the -value which is the slope of the magnitude-frequency law (where, b = log_e) and the intensity (rate) of seismic activity and their uncertainties are also estimated. The quantiles of functions of distributions of true and apparent magnitude on a given time interval [0, T] are evaluated, as well. Two main assumptions are adopted for the method:(1) earthquake occurrence is Poissonian and(2) the magnitude-frequency law is of Gutenberg-Richter type with a cutoff maximum value of magnitude. It is needless to say the seismic catalog used must have a large number of events. This requirement leads to the estimation of the parameters referred to some of the most seismically active regions of the world, e.g., Chile, Peru-Equador-South Colombia,Central America and Mexico, which belong to the east part of the circum-Pacific belt.     

基于 SOA 云服务的济宁市电子政务服务平台研究

基于政务网的政府各部门横向与纵向信息共享及业务协同的需求十分迫切,传统的单向共享模式的应用瓶颈日益突出,结合济宁市政务信息平台建设的实际环境及需求,设计了基于 SOA 云服务的政府部门间信息资源共享及在线业务协同平台的框架,实现了政府各部门之间数据有序交换和资源共享,建立了数据建设规范和业务协同机制,极大地提升了政务办公自动化水平。     

矿产资源总量预测地质数据的预处理问题

矿产资源总量预测是矿产资源经济研究的重要组成部分，是实现矿产资源经济研究综合化、定量化的工具和手段。本文在考虑矿产资源总量预测的基础上，对其地质数据进行了初步分析，提出了具体预测处理方法与建议，供有关人员参考。     

分层土中裙式吸力基础吸力沉贯特性模型试验研究

针对一种新型海上风电基础形式-裙式吸力基础,开展模型试验,研究其在分层土地基中的沉贯特性。讨论了土层分布形式（砂土、黏性土、上层砂土及下层黏性土（简称上砂下黏）、上层黏性土及下层砂土（简称上黏下砂））、沉贯方式的影响。研究表明：裙式吸力基础在分层土中具有良好的沉贯性能。与传统吸力基础相比,裙式吸力基础在砂土、黏性土、上砂下黏和上黏下砂地基中最终沉贯深度较传统吸力基础分别增加10.0%、2.3%、3.0%和9.6%,沉贯最大吸力值分别增加0.9%、14.4%、66.2%和92.2%。黏性土层位置和厚度对基础沉贯特性影响显著。上黏下砂地层中,基础最大吸力值出现在土层分界面处,最大吸力值随土层分布系数t（上层土厚度与土体总厚度的比值）的增加而逐渐增大,最终沉贯深度随土层分布系数增加而逐渐减小。上砂下黏地层中,裙式吸力基础最大吸力值出现在最大沉贯深度处,吸力最大值随土层分布系数的增加而逐渐减小,最终沉贯深度受土层分布系数影响较小。此外,同时抽吸主桶和裙结构内水体进行沉贯,最终沉贯深度大于只抽主桶情况。在砂土、黏性土、上黏下砂（ 0.4）和上砂下黏（ 0.4）等4种地基中,裙式吸力基础采用同时抽主桶和裙结构的沉贯方式,最终沉贯深度较只抽主桶情况分别增大了13.8%、3.4%、16.4%和4.6%。研究成果为进一步阐明吸力基础在分层土中沉贯机制及指导工程实践,具有借鉴意义。     

从城市兴趣点中提取多层次地标方法探究

为了获取结构化空间知识,本文在前人研究基础上,提出一种依据显著度差异从城市POI数据中提取多层次地标的方法。分别从知名度、通达度以及个体特征三个方面量化分析了影响POI显著性的因素;然后利用这三个指标构建了POI显著性度量模型,并进行了武汉市武昌区地标提取实验。最后,以各层地标为种子生成Voronoi图,用来反映各层地标的空间影响范围及上下层地标之间蕴含的认知规律。     

探空气球三维数据采集器的研制

主要介绍民航监控系统中的探空气球三维(方位、俯仰、斜距)数据自动采集器的软硬件设计及实现。该采集器的主要功能有：接收探空气球三维编码器数据并处理、换算、显示；接收和显示来自PC机的时间信息；根据PC机不同指令，上传相应时刻的三维数据到计算机。计算机通过MODEM将相应三维数据传到民航空管中心。其中，在显示电路中，提出并使用了一种新的消隐方法，克服了传统静态扫描显示的闪烁现象；在软件上，针对数据的具体特点，提出了化乘除为加减，利用移位、按位补偿处理算法，明显提高效率，保证了信号处理的实时性。     

An alternative deduction of the hill-type surfaces of the spatial 3-body problem

In the present paper, inequalities stronger than Sundman's and the best possible zero velocity surfaces of the spatial 3-body problem first obtained by Saari (1987) are deduced using a modified version of the transformation developed by Zare (1976). The notion of inertia ellipsoid is used to show the equivalence of the present authors' result to that of Saari's.     

中间法电磁波测距三角高程代替精密水准测量的研究

本文在简要介绍中间法电磁波测距三角高程测量原理基础上,推导了高差计算及精度估算公式;分析了中间法测量代替精密水准测量的必要条件、重要条件和次要条件。通过大量实测数据对比分析,验证了中间法测量代替精密水准测量的可行性,最后给出了中间法测量的实施方案。     

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SEASONAL TRANSITION OF EAST ASIAN MONSOON CIRCULATION AND ASIAN-PACIFIC THERMAL FIELD AND POSSIBLE MECHANISMS

The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, CMAP rainfall and Hadley Centre sea surface temperature (SST) datasets are used to investigate the relationship between the seasonal transition of East Asian monsoon and Asian-Pacific thermal contrast, together with the possible causes. Based on the 250 hPa air temperature over two selected key areas, the Asian-Pacific thermal difference (APTD) index is calculated. Results show that the APTD index is highly consistent with the Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO) index defined by Zhao et al., in terms of different key areas in different seasons. Moreover, the time point of the seasonal transition of the Asian-Pacific thermal contrast can be well determined by the APTD index, indicative of seasonal variation in East Asian atmospheric circulation from winter to summer. The transition characteristic of the circulation can be summarized as follows. The continental cold high at lower tropospheric level moves eastward to the East China Sea and decreases rapidly in intensity, while the low-level northerlies turn to southerlies. At middle tropospheric level, the East Asia major trough is reduced and moves eastward. Furthermore, the subtropical high strengthens and appears near Philippines. The South Asia high shifts from the east of Philippines to the west of Indochina Peninsula, and the prevailing southerlies change into northerlies in upper troposphere. Meanwhile, both the westerly and easterly jets both jump to the north. The seasonal transition of atmospheric circulation is closely related to the thermal contrast, and the possible mechanism can be concluded as follows. Under the background of the APTD seasonal transition, the southerly wind appears firstly at lower troposphere, which triggers the ascending motion via changing vertical shear of meridional winds. The resultant latent heating accelerates the transition of heating pattern from winter to summer. The summer heating pattern can further promote the adjustment of circulation, which favors the formation and strengthening of the low-level southerly and upper-level northerly winds. As a result, the meridional circulation of the East Asian subtropical monsoon is established through a positive feedback between the circulation and thermal fields. Moreover, the time point of this seasonal transition has a significant positive correlation with the SST anomalies over the tropical central-eastern Pacific Ocean, providing a basis for the short-term climate prediction.     

三层BP网隐层节点数确定方法的研究

对确定三层ＢＰ网络隐层节点数的理论依据和现有做法进行了研究,提出了一种三层ＢＰ网络隐层节点数的双向确定法