冬半年冷空气过程中期预报业务系统

介绍了一种以数值预报产品为基础，结合预报经验，运用天气学、统计学、能量学诊断、人工智能和延伸预报等多种技术手段，通过综合决策，制作冷空气过程的中期预报方法。     

长江防洪决策支持系统——防洪决策风险分析

针对长江中游防洪决策过程,筛选出几个主要的风险因子.考虑暴雨洪水历史资料,短期洪水位预报以及中长期雨洪预报三种不同信息条件,建立防洪决策风险分析模型,针对长江三峡至螺山河段防洪系统,是否启用分蓄洪区的各种防洪决策方案,给出决策风险的定量描述.     

专题制图中多因素数据的Fuxxy-Grey局势决策综合分类

专题制图中，所收集到的数据经常是单因素的，而在专题地图上却往往需要把多个单因素专题数据进行综合分类来表示。本文中，采用Fuzzy-Grey局势决策（下简称F-G决策）来研究多因素专题数据的综合分类问题，把“数据的模糊性”引入到灰色局势决策之中，根据不同情况，讨论各局势上效果测度中模糊隶属度确定的建模方法，在合适的隶属函数的基础上，在计算机上对实例分类进行程序运行，获得满意的结果。研究表明应用该方法在专题制图中对多因素数据进行综合分类是一种有效的手段。     

Optimal operation model of a single reservoir with drought duration explicitly concerned

In this paper, a new model for a single reservoir operation optimization is proposed. The proposed model can design the optimal operation policy of a reservoir with explicit consideration of drought duration. The authors model this problem by formulating a single-stage loss function as a function of both the reservoir release and drought duration. Thereby the expected loss per period which is calculated based on the above extended single-stage loss function is minimized in infinite time horizon on the basis of Markov decision process (MDP) theory. The reliability indices are estimated as expected loss per period for specified extended loss functions. Finally, the features of the proposed model are illustrated through numerical analysis.     

A Debt to the West: Recent Developments in the International Financial Situation of East-Central Europe

East-Central Europe is undergoing a rapid political and economic transformation. The unprecedented depth and speed of the economic reforms have produced serious questions about the stability of the region, and its future relations with western Europe and the world economy. This paper surveys and evaluates the size and character of existing debt stocks owed to the West by Hungary, Poland, and Czechoslovakia. The future political and economic stability of East-Central Europe and the European Community depends, to a large extent, on the ability of the Western financial system to respond to the long-term needs of the region.     

Flood-type trend analysis for alpine catchments

ABSTRACT

In many places, magnitudes and frequencies of floods are expected to increase due to climate change. To understand these changes better, trend analyses of historical data are helpful. However, traditional trend analyses do not address issues related to shifts in the relative contributions of rainfall versus snowmelt floods, or in the frequency of a particular flood type. We present a novel approach for quantifying such trends in time series of floods using a fuzzy decision tree for event classification and applied it to maximal annual and seasonal floods in 27 alpine catchments for the period 1980–2014. Trends in flood types were studied with Sen’s slope and double mass curves. Our results reveal a decreasing number of rain-on-snow and an increasing number of short rainfall events in all catchments, with flash floods increasing in smaller catchments. Overall, the results demonstrate the value of incorporating a fuzzy flood-type classification into flood trend analyses.     

Analyzing multi-year rice-fallow dynamics in Odisha using multi-temporal Landsat-8 OLI and Sentinel-1 Data

ABSTRACT

Sustainable intensification of existing cropland is one of the most viable options for meeting the escalating food demands of the ever-increasing population in the world. Accurate geospatial data about the potential single-crop (rice-fallows) areas is vital for policymakers to target the agro-technologies for enhancing crop productivity and intensification. Therefore, the study aimed to evaluate and understand the dynamics of rice-fallows in the Odisha state of India, using SAR (Sentinel-1) and Optical (Landsat OLI) datasets. This study utilized a decision-tree approach and Principal component analysis (PCA) for the segmentation and separation of different vegetation classes. The estimated overall accuracy of extracted rice-fallow maps was in the range of 84 to 85 percent. The study identified about 2.2, 2.0 and 2.1mha of Rice-Fallows in the years 2015–16, 2016–17, and 2017–18, respectively. The combined analysis (all three years) of rice-fallow maps identified about 1.34mha of permanent rice-fallows, whereas the remaining 0.6–0.8mha area was under the current-fallow category. About 50% of the total permanent rice-fallows were detected in the rainfed areas of Mayurbhanj, Bhadrak, Bolangir, Sundargarh, Keonjhar, Baleswar, Nawarangpur and Bargarh districts. The study also illustrated the time-series profiles of SMAP (soil moisture) datasets for the ten agroclimatic zones of the Odisha, which can be utilized (along with rice-fallow maps) for the selection of crop and cultivars (e.g. short or medium duration pulses or oilseeds) to target the rice fallows. The approach utilized in the current study can be scaled up in similar areas of South and South-east Asia and Africa to identify single-crop areas for targeting improved technologies for enhanced crop productivity and intensification.     

Calculation of Uncertainty in the Variogram

There are often limited data available in early stages of geostatistical modeling. This leads to considerable uncertainty in statistical parameters including the variogram. This article presents an approach to calculate the uncertainty in the variogram. A methodology to transfer this uncertainty through geostatistical simulation and decision making is also presented.The experimental variogram value for a separation lag vector h is a mean of squared differences. The variance of a mean can be calculated with a model of the correlation between the pairs of data used in the calculation. The data here are squared differences; therefore, we need a measure of a 4-point correlation. A theoretical multi-Gaussian approach is presented for this uncertainty assessment together with a number of examples. The theoretical results are validated by numerical simulation. The simulation approach permits generalization to non-Gaussian situations.Multiple plausible variograms may be fit knowing the uncertainty at each variogram point, . Multiple geostatistical realizations may then be constructed and subjected to process assessment to measure the impact of this uncertainty.     

GIS技术应用于城市防震减灾工作

介绍了基于GIS技术的“上海市防震减灾应急决策信息系统”,该系统由7个功能模块组合,主要有：地震地质基本信息,地震灾害快速评估子系统,地震应急决策信息子系统,信息查询,系统维护管理等。介绍了彩红外航片遥感等软件应用技术,并提出此系统需改进之处。     

European capital cities as political frontiers

The capital is the centre of the established order but it always had to accept a relatively uncontrollable world of individuals redefining urban space in their own way or pioneering new means of support. As their existence is both a political nuisance and a foreshadowing of institutional changes (sometimes revolutionary) of nation-wide importance, I call such ways of life political frontiers. One may wonder what will become of political frontiers in the information society (or postmodern society) that, apart from borderless, has been described as society without a centre as well. Actually information society is the prototype of a frontier society with self-responsible groups and individuals. However, capitals – even stripped of their governmental functions – may offer a symbolical environment (a condensation of space and time) that precisely satisfies the wants of those who wish to politicise a way of life. Niches for pioneering behaviour may get dispersed over a wider territory but new types of political activity will gravitate to the capital even if the capital's official political status has dwindled.