Risk-opportunity analysis for transformative policy design and appraisal

The climate crisis demands a strong response from policy-makers worldwide. The current global climate policy agenda requires technological change, innovation, labour markets and the financial system to be led towards an orderly and rapid low-carbon transition. Yet progress has been slow and incremental. Inadequacies of policy appraisal frameworks used worldwide may be significant contributors to the problem, as they frequently fail to adequately account for the dynamics of societal and technological change. Risks are underestimated, and the economic opportunities from innovation are generally not assessed in practice. Here, we identify root causes of those inadequacies and identify them to structural features of standard analysis frameworks. We use a review of theoretical principles of complexity science and the science of dynamical systems and formulate a generalisation of existing frameworks for policy analysis and the appraisal of outcomes of proposed policy strategies, to help better identify and frame situations of transformational change. We use the term “risk-opportunity analysis” to capture the generalised approach, in which conventional economic cost-benefit analysis is a special case. New guiding principles for policy-making during dynamic and transformational change are offered.     

Mapping public appraisals of carbon dioxide removal

Efforts to deliver on net zero emissions targets are set to rely on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) methods. Democratic, trustworthy and socially intelligent research, development, demonstration and deployment of CDR methods in aid of net zero will be highly dependent on how different publics evaluate them, and ultimately which groups support or oppose them. This paper develops a novel, nationally representative method for the multi-criteria appraisal of five policy relevant CDR methods – plus an option not to pursue CDR at all – by members of the British public (n = 2,111). The results show that the public supports the inclusion of CDR in UK climate policy. CDR methods often characterised as ‘natural’ or ‘nature-based’ are appraised more highly than ‘technological’ ones, in the descending order: habitat restoration, afforestation, wood in construction, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, and direct air carbon capture and storage. Yet, there is no significant disagreement in the appraisal of technological methods and they therefore may be less polarizing, suggesting that popular preconceptions of what is natural – and therefore more attractive – may be holding them back. CDR methods being mainly developed by public sector and non-governmental organisations are also appraised more highly than those being developed by private interests. Regional differences in option appraisal reveal where particular CDR methods are more or less likely to be supported or opposed; stressing the importance of matching physical requirements for CDR with appropriate social contexts. Demographic and socio-economic analyses show that people who appraise CDR methods most highly tend to be older respondents, male, or of a higher social grade. Finally, those with hierarchical worldviews and who voted ‘leave’ in the UK’s referendum on EU membership are less supportive of CDR than those with egalitarian worldviews and who voted ‘remain’.     

加大开发力度,向现代化大矿业迈进

正确认识矿产资源省情,对确定青海省新的经济增长点至为重要。青海省是矿产资源大省,但市场需求旺盛的大宗主体矿产探明储量严重不足,居全国前5位的35种矿产几乎全部是低值的非金属矿产和伴生共生矿产,绝大多数为“呆”、“滞”储量,商品属性很低或目前尚不具备商品属性。因此,“矿产资源大省”只具口头上和纸面上的意义。 本文从建立现代化大矿业的角度对青海省矿产资源开发提出了一些新见解。如“开发资源,振兴青海”,不仅要开发资源,还要走深加工的道路;在适销高产值矿产资源(如金、银、宝玉石及有色金属矿产等)的勘查、开发上,可以以优惠政策吸引国内外资金投入于青海南部地区及青海北部有色金属、贵金属矿区的深部工作中。     

Curbing enthusiasm for Brazilian agribusiness: The use of actor-specific assessments to transform sustainable development on the ground

Current enthusiasm for the potential of sustainable agricultural development must be based on a realistic assessment of the dynamics used by specific farming sectors. This study highlights the structural limitations that impede agricultural progress and explains why it is necessary to overcome these impediments in a case study of Brazil, one of the world's main agricultural exporters. In Brazil, the commodity-exporter large-farmers production chain is largely controlled by multinational corporations, with the investment of national capital a mere 12.4% in the technology-intensive sectors of the soy business (composed of seed production, fertilizers, pesticides, machinery, trading companies). The agricultural sector's future depends on increasing the share of national capital into domestic businesses and confronting the current and simplistic strategy of expansion into new agricultural frontiers, which often have high social and environmental costs. The future of family farmers depends on comprehensive development alternatives and challenging the current policies, since current development has been restricted to the 17.9% of family farmers who have access to rural credit, whom are mostly based in the Southern region of Brazil.     

Forests in Limbo: Assessing Costa Rica's Forest and Land Reform Policies

In this article, we consider the stalled implementation of two state policies among recipients of land reform in Costa Rica: the transfer of authority over forests on state agrarian reform lands over to the Ministry of the Environment, and the Rural Development Institute’s requirement to issue land title to the recipients of its land reform projects. To date, neither of these policies is even partially implemented, resulting in both forests and marginalized landholders existing in a state of dual tenure limbo. In this article we draw on document analysis, interviews with policymakers, and interviews with recipients of land reform to determine why these policies have not been implemented. In addition, we assess the potential consequences for forest conservation that this situation has produced by mapping the extent and characteristics of forests that occupy this state of uncertainty.     

我国测绘地理信息成果保密政策分析及对策

针对新形势下我国测绘地理信息成果应用与保密面临的突出问题,从不同角度分析了测绘地理信息成果保密与应用的关系,提出了我国测绘地理信息成果应用的对策和建议。     

The empty rhetoric of the smart city: from digital inclusion to economic promotion in Philadelphia

Smart city initiatives have been adopted by cities worldwide, proposing forward-looking, technological solutions to urban problems big and small. These policies are indicative of a digitized urban condition, where social and economic exchange rely on globalized telecommunications networks, and governance strategies follow suit. Propelled through events such as IBM’s Smarter Cities Challenge, the smart city acts as a data-driven logic urban change where widespread benefit to a city and its residents is proposed, masking the utility of these policies to further entrepreneurial economic development strategies. In this article, I present a case study of the Digital On-Ramps initiative that emerged from IBM’s policy-consultation in Philadelphia. The initiative proposed a social media-style workforce education application (app) to train up to 500,000 low-literacy residents for jobs in the information and knowledge economy, but even as the city’s mayor declared the project a success, it did not meet expectations. This essay argues that the rhetoric of intelligent, transformative digital change works much more to “sell” a city in the global economy than to actually address urban inequalities.     

澳大利亚南极利益——现实挑战与政策应对

地理空间上的相对邻近性与最为广阔的领土主张,使得南极一直都是澳大利亚最为重要的战略重点之一。在积极参与南极事务的过程中,澳大利亚通过对其南极利益与面临的挑战所形成的明确具体的认识,逐渐建立起一系列完善、健全的政策机制,并将维护领土主权、加大科研投入、保护南极环境、获取经济收益作为现阶段的主要目标。     

The spatial distribution of green buildings in China: Regional imbalance,economic fundamentals,and policy incentives

Since China released its 3-Star green building rating system in 2006, the number of certified green buildings in the country has increased sharply. The concentrations of green buildings, however, are not spread evenly across different provinces. Employing the comprehensive green building data as of February 2014, this paper attempts to analyze the spatial distribution of green buildings in China and examine its underlying determinants. The empirical results confirm that a regional imbalance does exist with regard to green building numbers. The paper also finds that local economic fundamentals and subsidy-based incentive policies can explain the presence of green buildings, but the performance of real estate market, energy efficiency, and two specific green policies (local green standard and green building committee) are not significantly associated with green building concentrations at the provincial level. Based on the empirical results, the paper also yields a number of implications, which suggest that the government can promoting more green buildings via the alleviation of economic inequality across different regions, the establishment of a market-oriented mechanism, and the improvement of public awareness regarding sustainability. These implications will help to guide the government in its efforts to establish and implement more efficient and effective green policies. From a spatial perspective, this study unveils a general picture regarding green building development in China.     

京津冀协同创新水平评价及提升对策研究

协同创新是京津冀协同发展的核心议题之一,本文从缩小京津冀三地间创新水平差距和推动跨地区、跨主体的创新协作两个视角构建了协同创新指数,对京津冀协同创新水平进行测度评价。测度结果为：2010-2014年期间,京津冀整体的创新能力有了明显提升,但不同地区间、不同主体间的协同创新水平仍然较低。从综合创新水平来看,北京在创新的投入、产出和环境方面都遥遥领先,天津在创新投入和产业创新产出方面进步很快,河北在产业创新产出方面也有较快增长,但创新环境进步缓慢。从主体间协同创新水平来看,企业的主体地位较低,高校和研究机构的知识创新产出丰富但产业化程度较低。从区域间的协同创新水平来看,北京技术转移在全国范围内呈现“跳跃式”扩散特征,但对津冀主要产业的创新带动贡献不大。最后,提出了促进创新要素特别是人才要素的流动、构建官产学研多元主体协同创新模式、加强创新链与产业链对接等政策建议。