Risk-opportunity analysis for transformative policy design and appraisal

The climate crisis demands a strong response from policy-makers worldwide. The current global climate policy agenda requires technological change, innovation, labour markets and the financial system to be led towards an orderly and rapid low-carbon transition. Yet progress has been slow and incremental. Inadequacies of policy appraisal frameworks used worldwide may be significant contributors to the problem, as they frequently fail to adequately account for the dynamics of societal and technological change. Risks are underestimated, and the economic opportunities from innovation are generally not assessed in practice. Here, we identify root causes of those inadequacies and identify them to structural features of standard analysis frameworks. We use a review of theoretical principles of complexity science and the science of dynamical systems and formulate a generalisation of existing frameworks for policy analysis and the appraisal of outcomes of proposed policy strategies, to help better identify and frame situations of transformational change. We use the term “risk-opportunity analysis” to capture the generalised approach, in which conventional economic cost-benefit analysis is a special case. New guiding principles for policy-making during dynamic and transformational change are offered.     

Incorporating blue carbon sequestration benefits into sub-national climate policies

The emissions reduction pledges made by individual countries through the 2015 Paris Agreement represent the current global commitment to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in the face of the enduring climate crisis. Natural lands carbon sequestration and storage are critical for successful pathways to global decarbonization (i.e., as a negative emissions technology). Coastal vegetated habitats maintain carbon sequestration rates exceeding forest sequestration rates on a per unit area basis by nearly two orders of magnitude. These blue carbon habitats and their associated carbon sequestration benefits are vulnerable to losses from land-use change and sea-level rise. Incorporation of blue carbon habitats in climate change policy is one strategy for both maintaining these habitats and conserving significant carbon sequestration capabilities. Previous policy assessments have found the potential for incorporation of coastal carbon sequestration in national-level policies, yet there has – to date – been little inclusion of blue carbon in the national-scale implementation of Paris commitments. Recently, sub-national jurisdictions have gained attention as models for pathways to decarbonization. However, few previous studies have examined sub-national level policy opportunities for operationalizing blue carbon into climate decision-making. California is uniquely poised to integrate benefits from blue carbon into its coastal planning and management and its suite of climate mitigation policies. Here, we evaluated legal authorities and policy contexts addressing sequestration specifically from blue carbon habitats. We synthesized the progressive action in California’s approaches to mitigate carbon emissions including statutory, regulatory, and non-regulatory opportunities to incorporate blue carbon ecosystem service information into state- and local-level management decisions. To illustrate how actionable blue carbon information can be produced for use in decision-making, we conducted a spatial analysis of blue carbon sequestration in several locations in California across multiple agencies and management contexts. We found that the average market values of carbon sequestration services in 2100 ranged from $7,730 to $44,000 per hectare and that the social cost of carbon sequestration value was 1.3 to 2.7 times the market value. We also demonstrated that restoration of small areas with high sequestration rates can be comparable to the sequestration of existing marshes. Our results illustrate how accessible information about carbon sequestration in coastal habitats can be directly incorporated into existing policy frameworks at the sub-national scale. The incorporation of blue carbon sequestration benefits into sub-national climate policies can serve as a model for the development of future policy approaches for negative emissions technologies, with consequences for the success of the Paris Agreement and science-based decarbonization by mid-century.     

Mapping public appraisals of carbon dioxide removal

Efforts to deliver on net zero emissions targets are set to rely on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) methods. Democratic, trustworthy and socially intelligent research, development, demonstration and deployment of CDR methods in aid of net zero will be highly dependent on how different publics evaluate them, and ultimately which groups support or oppose them. This paper develops a novel, nationally representative method for the multi-criteria appraisal of five policy relevant CDR methods – plus an option not to pursue CDR at all – by members of the British public (n = 2,111). The results show that the public supports the inclusion of CDR in UK climate policy. CDR methods often characterised as ‘natural’ or ‘nature-based’ are appraised more highly than ‘technological’ ones, in the descending order: habitat restoration, afforestation, wood in construction, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, and direct air carbon capture and storage. Yet, there is no significant disagreement in the appraisal of technological methods and they therefore may be less polarizing, suggesting that popular preconceptions of what is natural – and therefore more attractive – may be holding them back. CDR methods being mainly developed by public sector and non-governmental organisations are also appraised more highly than those being developed by private interests. Regional differences in option appraisal reveal where particular CDR methods are more or less likely to be supported or opposed; stressing the importance of matching physical requirements for CDR with appropriate social contexts. Demographic and socio-economic analyses show that people who appraise CDR methods most highly tend to be older respondents, male, or of a higher social grade. Finally, those with hierarchical worldviews and who voted ‘leave’ in the UK’s referendum on EU membership are less supportive of CDR than those with egalitarian worldviews and who voted ‘remain’.     

Hype among low-carbon technologies: Carbon capture and storage in comparison

Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technology has become a crucial part of climate change mitigation strategies around the world; yet its progress has been slow. Some have criticised CCS as a distracting hype, even as mainstream support continues. This article adapts the literature on technological hypes to develop a framework suitable for technologies with limited media/public exposure, such as CCS. It provides a qualitative context and analyses seven quantitative indicators of hype that are largely internal to the CCS technology regime. Throughout, the article contrasts results for CCS with those of comparable technologies. The main findings, which support the view that CCS has been hyped, are as follows. “Expectations” mounted rapidly in the form of project announcements for electricity applications of CCS and deployment forecasts in influential reports. However, announcements soon plummeted. “Commitments” remained high, nonetheless, judging by allocations in public budgets and number of peer-reviewed publications. Meanwhile, “outcomes”—in terms of patents, prototypes and estimated costs—reveal few if any improvements for CCS. Considering these findings and the characteristics of CCS, its development is likely to be more difficult than initially expected. Accordingly, this article calls for decisively prioritising CCS for industrial and, potentially, bioenergy uses. Coal- and gas-fired power plants may be replaced by non-CCS technologies, so power CCS development is far less pressing.     

Exploring resource efficiency for energy,land and phosphorus use: Implications for resource scarcity and the global environment

In this paper, we present four model-based scenarios exploring the potential for resource efficiency for energy, land and phosphorus use, and implications for resource depletion, climate change and biodiversity. The scenarios explored include technological improvements as well as structural changes in production systems and lifestyle changes. Many of such changes have long lead times, requiring up front and timely investments in infrastructure, innovative incentive structures and education. For simulating the scenarios we applied the IMAGE modelling framework, with a time horizon until 2050.Our findings confirm a large potential for more efficient resource use: our (no new policies) baseline scenario shows a global increase, between 2010 and 2050, by 80% of primary energy use, 4% of arable land and 40% of phosphorus fertilisers. These numbers are reduced to +25% (primary energy), −9% (arable land) and +9% (phosphorus) in the global resource efficiency scenario. Baseline developments and resource efficiency opportunities vary strikingly among regions, resources and sectors. Phosphorus use, for example, is expected to increase most on croplands in developing countries, whereas the largest potential for phosphorus use efficiency lies in the livestock sector and urban sewage treatment in industrialised countries. Consequently, while resource efficiency resonates well as a general notion in policy thinking, concrete policies need to be region-specific, resource-specific and sector-specific.Efficiency efforts on one resource tend to contribute to efficient use of other resources and to benefit the environment. There are also trade-offs, however, and the synergies analysed do not make problem-specific policies redundant: in 2050, the global resource efficiency scenario presents higher phosphorus use and higher use of fossil fuels than in 2010; greenhouse gas emission targets are met by half; and biodiversity loss slows down but is not halted. Moreover, part of the efficiency gains in land and phosphorus use is sacrificed when this scenario is combined with ambitious climate policy, due to the substantial resource requirements for the deployment of bio-energy—albeit much less than in a scenario without more efficient resource use.     

Protecting “First world” markets and “Third world” nature: The politics of illegal logging in Australia,the European Union and the United States

Global forest governance has recently seen the emergence of a timber legality regime. In an aim to regulate global timber trade flows, the US, the EU and Australia adopted laws prohibiting illegally harvested timber from entering their markets. While some view this as a milestone for environmental and social stewardship in the global forest sector, the effects of the regime remain contested.In order to better understand likely effects of the regime, we apply the Discursive Agency Approach to analyze discursive dynamics of policy making among the stakeholders involved in the creation of each law and their effects on governance design and implementation.Based on 120 interviews in the US, Australia, the EU and with global organizations/institutions, as well as 19 informal conversations, 300 documents, and participant observation data, our results show that legality is a powerful concept in forest governance. Drawing attention away from sustainability, it enables discursive divides between the global North and South as well as between wood producers and importers. These divides were crucial for the emergence of the legality regime. While some forest industry groups perceived the new laws as an opportunity, others saw them as a threat. In all three regions this led to coalitions between supportive industry factions and environmental groups. These coalitions were based on a complementarity of goals; environmentalists aimed to protect “Third World” forests while industry groups aimed to protect “First World” markets against growing competition from these former regions. Yet each coalition was composed differently and employed distinct – albeit related – discursive strategies in policy making. This affected the design of each law and its implementation. The shift from sustainability towards legality re-surfaces prominently in implementation. Stakeholder discussions range from coercive “threatening” to more learning-oriented “educating” approaches. We conclude by discussing the effects these discursive struggles in Australia, the EU and the US have on the global timber legality regime.     

Engaging communities in climate adaptation: the potential of social networks

There has been a growing recognition regarding the use of social networks to engage communities in government actions. However, despite increasing awareness of social networks, there is very limited evidence for their application in relation to climate policy. This study fills this gap by assessing the potential of social networks for engaging local communities in climate adaptation policy, drawing on a case study of the Shoalhaven region in Australia. Participants from key representative groups were recruited using a purposive snowball sampling technique (N?=?24). By mapping knowledge acquisition and diffusion networks in relation to climate adaption at the local scale, this study identified key nodes within the networks. Findings demonstrate that although climate adaptation information was acquired from a diverse range of sources, the sharing knowledge networks were far more dispersed. Furthermore, although 165 knowledge sources were identified, three nodes had coverage cross the entire network, and as such acted as boundary spanners within the sharing network. This research demonstrates the utility of social network analysis to reveal the underlying knowledge networks and structures that influence community engagement pathways and in doing so outlines key implications in relation to engaging local communities in climate policy and action.

Policy relevance

The rapid development of adaptation as a mainstream strategy for managing the risks of climate change has resulted in the emergence of a broad range of adaptation policies and management strategies globally. However, the success of these initiatives is largely dependent on their acceptance and uptake by local communities, which to date remains a significant challenge. Accordingly, policy makers require novel approaches to overcome barriers to community engagement so as to enhance the likely success of community engagement pathways. This article demonstrates the value of using social network analysis to reveal the underlying knowledge network structures. This approach makes it possible to identify key individuals within a community who can disseminate adaptation information quickly across broad geographic ranges. By utilizing this approach, policy makers globally will be able to increase the extent to which adaption initiatives are accepted and adhered to by local communities, thus increasing their success.     

Indigenous community benefits from a de-centralized approach to REDD+ in Brazil

Successful efforts of indigenous groups to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD+) will likely vary with how the initiatives are designed and implemented. Whether REDD+ initiatives are carried out by national governments or decentralized to sub-national or project-level institutions with a nested approach could be of great consequence. I describe the Suruí Forest Carbon Project in Amazonian Brazil, one of the first REDD+ pilot projects implemented with indigenous people in the world. I emphasize (1) how enfranchisement of community members in the policy-planning process, fund management, and carbon baseline establishment increased project reliability and equity, and (2) how the project's quality would have likely been diminished if implemented under a centralized REDD+ scheme.

Policy relevance

This article explores a decentralized REDD+ intervention established in an indigenous land in Brazil. It expands the theoretical discussions on REDD+ governance and highlights how centralized REDD+ programmes are likely to be less effective than project-level interventions assisted by NGOs in terms of social benefits and community engagement. Additionally, the case study described can serve as reference for the design of critical social and technical components of REDD+.     

The empty rhetoric of the smart city: from digital inclusion to economic promotion in Philadelphia

Smart city initiatives have been adopted by cities worldwide, proposing forward-looking, technological solutions to urban problems big and small. These policies are indicative of a digitized urban condition, where social and economic exchange rely on globalized telecommunications networks, and governance strategies follow suit. Propelled through events such as IBM’s Smarter Cities Challenge, the smart city acts as a data-driven logic urban change where widespread benefit to a city and its residents is proposed, masking the utility of these policies to further entrepreneurial economic development strategies. In this article, I present a case study of the Digital On-Ramps initiative that emerged from IBM’s policy-consultation in Philadelphia. The initiative proposed a social media-style workforce education application (app) to train up to 500,000 low-literacy residents for jobs in the information and knowledge economy, but even as the city’s mayor declared the project a success, it did not meet expectations. This essay argues that the rhetoric of intelligent, transformative digital change works much more to “sell” a city in the global economy than to actually address urban inequalities.     

Risk based management approach in contaminated land management practices

The present Dutch approach is often addressed in Europe as an example of practical, innovative and cost effective soil management. During the last 25 years of finding the best practices the Dutch soil clean-up policy evolved from a sectoral soil remediation program, managed and financed mainly by the central government and provinces, towards an integrated contaminated sites management approach, managed by local and regional bodies, financed by tax money and private investments. The contamination perception evolved from very strict demands on ＂full remediation＂ to the more pragmatic and practical concept of reducing or eliminating risks associated with contamination to the acceptable levels for humans and ecosystem, the so-called ＂Risk based management＂. The environmental regulatory system is presently undergoing trough considerable modifications towards integrated risk based management to satisfy the changing needs of the Dutch society and to correspond with the new European legislation as Water Framework Directive, Waster Directive and EU Soil Strategy. Dutch Policy Development, Netherlands has a long history of contaminated land management. In the year of 1979 the major obstructions for finding successful solutions for soil contamination problems were： Absence of knowledge about contamination behaviour and fate in the natural environment and as a consequence incapability to make priorities and sound decisions. Absence of experience in treating soil contamination. Not enough financial resources to clean everything according to the standards set in the legislation. During the last 25 years of finding the best practices the Dutch went through a complex process of developing realistic, affordable and practical approaches towards soil contamination. Dutch soil clean-up policy evolved from a sectoral soil remediation program,