Linking tracers,water age and conceptual models to identify dominant runoff processes in a sparsely monitored humid tropical catchment

Assessing catchment runoff response remains a key research frontier because of limitations in current observational techniques to fully characterize water source areas and transit times in diverse geographical environments. Here, we report a study that combines empirical data with modelling to identify dominant runoff processes in a sparsely monitored humid tropical catchment. The analysis integrated isotope tracers into conceptual rainfall–runoff models of varying complexity (from 5 to 11 calibrated parameters) that are able to simulate discharge and tracer concentrations and track the evolving age of stream water exiting the catchment. The model structures can be seen as competing hypotheses of catchment functioning and were simultaneously calibrated against uncertain streamflow gaugings and a 2‐year daily isotope rainfall–runoff record. Comparison of the models was facilitated using global parameter sensitivity analysis and the resulting effect on calibration. We show that a variety of tested model structures reproduced water and tracer dynamics in stream, but the simpler models failed to adequately reproduce both. The resulting water age distributions of the tested models varied significantly with little similarity between the stream water age and stored water age distributions. The sensitivity analysis revealed that only some of the more complex models (from eight parameters) could be better constrained to infer more plausible water age distributions and catchment storage estimates. These models indicated that the age of water stored in the catchment is generally older compared with the age of water fluxes, with evapotranspiration age being younger compared with streamflow. However, the water age distributions followed a similar temporal behaviour dominated by climatic seasonality. Stream water ages increased during the dry season (greater than 1 year) and decreased with increased streamflow (a few weeks old) during the wet season. We further show that the ratios of the streamwater age to stored water age distribution and the water age distribution of actual evapotranspiration to the stored water age distribution from constrained models could potentially serve as useful hydrological indicators of catchment functioning. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A two‐dimensional coupled hydromechanical discontinuum model for simulating rock hydraulic fracturing

Within the framework of our discontinuous deformation analysis for rock failure algorithm, this paper presents a two‐dimensional coupled hydromechanical discontinuum model for simulating the rock hydraulic fracturing process. In the proposed approach, based on the generated joint network, the calculation of fluid mechanics is performed first to obtain the seepage pressure near the tips of existing cracks, and then the fluid pressure is treated as linearly distributed loads on corresponding block boundaries. The contribution of the hydraulic pressure to the initiation/propagation of the cracks is considered by adding the components of these blocks into the force matrix of the global equilibrium equation. Finally, failure criteria are applied at the crack tips to determine the occurrence of cracking events. Several verification examples are simulated, and the results show that this newly proposed numerical model can simulate the hydraulic fracturing process correctly and effectively. Although the numerical and experimental verifications focus on one unique preexisting crack, because of the capability of discontinuous deformation analysis in simulating block‐like structures, the proposed approach is capable of modeling rock hydraulic fracturing processes. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling atmospheric and hydrologic processes for assessment of meadow restoration impact on flow and sediment in a sparsely gauged California watershed

The restoration of meadowland using the pond and plug technique of gully elimination was performed in a 9‐mile segment along Last Chance Creek, Feather River Basin, California, in order to rehabilitate floodplain functions such as mitigating floods, retaining groundwater, and reducing sediment yield associated with bank erosion and to significantly alter the hydrologic regime. However, because the atmospheric and hydrological conditions have evolved over the restoration period, it was difficult to obtain a comprehensible evaluation of the impact of restoration activities by means of field measurements. In this paper, a new use of physically based models for environmental assessment is described. The atmospheric conditions over the sparsely gauged Last Chance Creek watershed (which does not have any precipitation or weather stations) during the combined historical critical dry and wet period (1982–1993) were reconstructed over the whole watershed using the atmospheric fifth‐generation mesoscale model driven with the US National Center for Atmospheric Research and US National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data. Using the downscaled atmospheric data as its input, the watershed environmental hydrology (WEHY) model was applied to this watershed. All physical parameters of the WEHY model were derived from the existing geographic information system and satellite‐driven data sets. By comparing the prerestoration and postrestoration simulation results under the identical atmospheric conditions, a more complete environmental assessment of the restoration project was made. Model results indicate that the flood peak may be reduced by 10–20% during the wet year and the baseflow may be enhanced by 10–20% during the following dry seasons (summer to fall) in the postrestoration condition. The model results also showed that the hydrologic impact of the land management associated with the restoration mitigates bank erosion and sediment discharge during winter storm events. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ISA model: A constitutive model for soils with yield surface in the intergranular strain space

In this article, a new constitutive model for soils is proposed. It is formulated by means of plasticity, but in contrast to the precedent works, it presents a yield function describing a surface within the intergranular strain space. This latter is a state variable providing information of the recent strain history. An expression for the plastic strain rate has been proposed to guarantee the stress rate continuity. Under the application of medium or large strain amplitudes, the constitutive equation becomes independent of the intergranular strain and delivers a mathematical structure similar to some Karlsruhe hypoplastic models. Some simulations of monotonic and cyclic triaxial test are provided to evaluate and analyze the model performance. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation model predictions

An ability to quantify the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation predictions is a requirement not only for guiding model development but also for their successful application. Probabilistic flood inundation predictions are usually produced by choosing a method of weighting the model parameter space, but previous study suggests that this choice leads to clear differences in inundation probabilities. This study aims to address the evaluation of the reliability of these probabilistic predictions. However, a lack of an adequate number of observations of flood inundation for a catchment limits the application of conventional methods of evaluating predictive reliability. Consequently, attempts have been made to assess the reliability of probabilistic predictions using multiple observations from a single flood event. Here, a LISFLOOD‐FP hydraulic model of an extreme (>1 in 1000 years) flood event in Cockermouth, UK, is constructed and calibrated using multiple performance measures from both peak flood wrack mark data and aerial photography captured post‐peak. These measures are used in weighting the parameter space to produce multiple probabilistic predictions for the event. Two methods of assessing the reliability of these probabilistic predictions using limited observations are utilized; an existing method assessing the binary pattern of flooding, and a method developed in this paper to assess predictions of water surface elevation. This study finds that the water surface elevation method has both a better diagnostic and discriminatory ability, but this result is likely to be sensitive to the unknown uncertainties in the upstream boundary condition. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling sediment deposition and phosphorus retention in a river floodplain

Phosphorus (P) is one of the major limiting nutrient in many freshwater ecosystems. During the last decade, attention has been focused on the fluxes of suspended sediment and particulate P through freshwater drainage systems because of severe eutrophication effects in aquatic ecosystems. Hence, the analysis and prediction of phosphorus and sediment dynamics constitute an important element for ecological conservation and restoration of freshwater ecosystems. In that sense, the development of a suitable prediction model is justified, and the present work is devoted to the validation and application of a predictive soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) uptake and sedimentation models, to a real riparian system of the middle Ebro river floodplain. Both models are coupled to a fully distributed two‐dimensional shallow‐water flow numerical model. The SRP uptake model is validated using data from three field experiments. The model predictions show a good accuracy for SRP concentration, where the linear regressions between measured and calculated values of the three experiments were significant (r² ≥ 0.62; p ≤ 0.05), and a Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (E) that ranged from 0.54 to 0.62. The sedimentation model is validated using field data collected during two real flooding events within the same river reach. The comparison between calculated and measured sediment depositions showed a significant linear regression (p ≤ 0.05; r² = 0.97) and an E that ranged from 0.63 to 0.78. Subsequently, the complete model that includes flow dynamics, solute transport, SRP uptake and sedimentation is used to simulate and analyse floodplain sediment deposition, river nutrient contribution and SRP uptake. According to this analysis, the main SRP uptake process appears to be the sediment sorption. The analysis also reveals the presence of a lateral gradient of hydrological connectivity that decreases with distance from the river and controls the river matter contribution to the floodplain. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A smoothed cap model for variably saturated soils and its robust numerical implementation

This paper deals with the numerical implementation of a cap model for unsaturated soils. It provides a brief review of existing cap model approaches, based on which an improved model formulated in terms of generalised effective stress and matric suction is derived and described in detail. Although the proposed model is a multisurface plasticity model, it can efficiently be implemented using only single‐surface projections because of the smoothness of the model, which is obtained by construction. Numerical algorithms are provided for these single‐surface stress projections, using a single‐equation approach whenever possible. The robustness of the utilised single‐equation approaches is enhanced by proposing problem‐fitted start‐up procedures based on investigations of the nonlinear projection equations. A comparison of the model response with extensive material test data is used to validate the model and to demonstrate the robust application of the approach to silty sands and low to medium plasticity clays. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Integrating isolated and riparian wetland modules in the PHYSITEL/HYDROTEL modelling platform: model performance and diagnosis

Mathematical modelling is a well‐accepted framework to evaluate the effects of wetlands on stream flow and watershed hydrology in general. Although the integration of wetland modules into a distributed hydrological model represents a cost‐effective way to make this assessment, the added value brought by landscape‐specific modules to a model's ability to replicate basic hydrograph characteristics remains unclear. The objectives of this paper were the following: (i) to present the adaptation of PHYSITEL (a geographic information system) to parameterize isolated and riparian wetlands; (ii) to describe the integration of specific isolated wetland and riparian wetland modules into HYDROTEL, a distributed hydrological model; and (iii) to evaluate the performance of the updated modelling platform with respect to the capacity of replicating various hydrograph characteristics. To achieve this, two sets of simulations were performed (with and without wetland modules), and the added value was assessed at three river segments of the Becancour River watershed, Quebec, Canada, using six general goodness‐of‐fit indicators and 14 water flow criteria. A sensitivity analysis of the wetland module parameters was performed to characterize their impact on stream flows of the modelled watershed. Results of this study indicate the following: (i) integration of specific wetland modules can slightly increase the capacity of HYDROTEL to replicate basic hydrograph characteristics; and (ii) the updated modelling platform allows for the explicit assessment of the impact of wetlands (e.g. typology and location) on watershed hydrology. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Watershed delineation using hydrographic features and a DEM in plain river network region

Watershed delineation is a required step when conducting any spatially distributed hydrological modelling. Automated approaches are often proposed to delineate a watershed based on a river network extracted from the digital elevation model (DEM) using the deterministic eight‐neighbour (D8) method. However, a realistic river network cannot be derived from conventional DEM processing methods for a large flat area with a complex network of rivers, lakes, reservoirs, and polders, referred to as a plain river network region (PRNR). In this study, a new approach, which uses both hydrographic features and DEM, has been developed to address the problems of watershed delineation in PRNR. It extracts the river nodes and determines the flow directions of the river network based on a vector‐based hydrographic feature data model. The river network, lakes, reservoirs, and polders are then used to modify the flow directions of grid cells determined by D8 approach. The watershed is eventually delineated into four types of catchments including lakes, reservoirs, polders, and overland catchments based on the flow direction matrix and the location of river nodes. Multiple flow directions of grid cells are represented using a multi‐direction encoding method, and multiple outflows of catchments are also reflected in the topology of catchments. The proposed approach is applied to the western Taihu watershed in China. Comparisons between the results obtained from the D8 approach, the ‘stream burning’ approach, and those from the proposed approach clearly demonstrate an improvement of the new approach over the conventional approaches. This approach will benefit the development of distributed hydrological models in PRNR for the consideration of different types and multiple inlets and outlets of catchments. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Calibration of paired watersheds: Utility of moving sums in presence of externalities

Historically, paired watershed studies have been used to quantify the hydrological effects of land use and management practices by concurrently monitoring 2 similar watersheds during calibration (pretreatment) and post‐treatment periods. This study characterizes seasonal water table and flow response to rainfall during the calibration period and tests a change detection technique of moving sums of recursive residuals (MOSUM) to select calibration periods for each control–treatment watershed pair when the regression coefficients for daily water table elevation were most stable to minimize regression model uncertainty. The control and treatment watersheds were 1 watershed of 3–4‐year‐old intensely managed loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) with natural understory, 1 watershed of 3–4‐year‐old loblolly pine intercropped with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), 1 watershed of 14–15‐year‐old thinned loblolly pine with natural understory (control), and 1 watershed of switchgrass only. The study period spanned from 2009 to 2012. Silvicultural operational practices during this period acted as external factors, potentially shifting hydrologic calibration relationships between control and treatment watersheds. MOSUM results indicated significant changes in regression parameters due to silvicultural operations and were used to identify stable relationships for water table elevation. None of the calibration relationships developed using this method were significantly different from the classical calibration relationship based on published historical data. We attribute that to the similarity of historical and 2010–2012 leaf area index on control and treatment watersheds as moderated by the emergent vegetation. Although the MOSUM approach does not eliminate the need for true calibration data or replace the classic paired watershed approach, our results show that it may be an effective alternative approach when true data are unavailable, as it minimizes the impacts of external disturbances other than the treatment of interest.