和田地区近40年气温变化特征分析

利用和田地区4个代表站1961～2000年的气温资料，对和田地区近40a来的气温变化作了分析。得出近40年来和田地区年平均气温呈上升趋势，春季气温和于田县的年平均气温却呈下降趋势。特别是上世纪90年代增温十分明显，1999年是近40a来和田地区最暖的一年。     

热带地区100 hPa东风气流的气候效应(Ⅱ): 与华北夏季降水的关系

利用1954-1998年NCAR／NCEP再分析资料及同期我国160个测站月降水资料，分析了热带地区100hPa东风与华北夏季降水之间的关系。结果表明：（1）从春季到夏季，东风强度与华北夏季降水具有显著而稳定的正相关关系。（2）弱东风年夏季，印度洋及印度次大陆表面温度均为正异常，然而赤道印度洋地区的正异常明显强于其南北两侧。海温异常的这一分布特征，一方面使得100hPa东风减弱；另一方面使得南亚地区海陆热力对比减弱，导致南亚夏季风偏弱，进而造成由该季风区向华北地区的水汽输送减少，华北地区干旱。     

上海“8.5”特大暴雨的成因和特点

利用WSR－88D多普勒雷达资料，通过分析2001年8月5日到8月6日产生于上海地区的特大暴雨过程的雷达回波特征，研究探讨这次过程的降水成因和降水特点。发现副热带高压边缘偏南气流的风速辐合、螺旋雨带中强回波短带的合并加强、风的垂直切变产生的辐合以及热带系统的高效率降水作用是这次暴雨过程的降水成因和降水特点。并提出了预报这类暴雨系统需要注意的要点：强降水回波的发生和发展加强往往和风场中的局地强辐合区相联系，利用多普勒雷达连续演变的风场资料，可及时了解辐合区的形成和演变过程，提前作出强降水可能性的预测。     

近百年中国东部夏季降水的时空变率

利用中国东部25°N以北28个站1880-1999年夏季季降水序列,用旋转复经验正交函数（RCEOF）方法,研究了中国东部地区百年干湿的时空演变规律。结果表明,夏季降水空间变率大值区依次为:长江中下游地区、淮河流域、江南、华北、西南及东北。除西南外的5个关键区大体上反映了从6月到8月夏季雨带自南向北椎进所滞留的地区。旋转空间位相分布揭示了长江中下游地区、江南、东北的旱涝异常主要表现为驻波振动特征;而淮河流域、华北、西南地区显示出降水异常信号具有部分的行波特征。尤其第4空间模显示出旱涝异常信号从东北南部可沿着黄淮下游传到长江下游地区。对于近百年中国东部地区夏季于湿变化,长江中下游地区、淮河流域、华北及东北四个地区都存在20-25年时间尺度的周期振荡;长江中下游地区及华北地区都存在准60年时间尺度的振荡周期;东北地区主要表现出36年时间尺度的振荡周期;淮河流域存在明显的70-80年时间尺度的振荡周期;华北地区存在的11年时间尺度的振荡周期恰好与太阳黑子活动的11年周期相一致。在年代际时间尺度（包括次年代际时间尺度）上,长江中下游、淮河流域及华北地区的夏季降水的变化与太阳活动有显著的正相关。     

南疆西部山区一次特大暴雨特征分析

通过对2001年9月22－23日南疆西北部山区特大暴雨的环流背景、物理量场、卫星云图分析，揭示了这场特大暴雨的物理机制和各要素场特征。     

An integrated hydrological model for rain‐induced landslide prediction

This paper describes an extension to the Combined Hydrology And Stability Model (CHASM) to fully include the effects of vegetation and slope plan topography on slope stability. The resultant physically based numerical model is designed to be applied to site‐specific slopes in which a detailed assessment of unsaturated and saturated hydrology is required in relation to vegetation, topography and slope stability. Applications are made to the Hawke's Bay region in New Zealand where shallow‐seated instability is strongly associated with spatial and temporal trends in vegetation cover types, and the Mid‐Levels region in Hong Kong, an area subject to a variety of landslide mechanisms, some of which may be subject to strong topographic control. An improved understanding of process mechanism, afforded by the model, is critical for reliable and appropriate design of slope stabilization and remedial measures. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Momentum transport of wave zero during March: A possible predictor for the Indian summer monsoon

Analysis of monthly momentum transport of zonal waves at 850 hPa for the period 1979 to 1993, between ‡S and ‡N for January to April, using zonal (u) and meridional (v) components of wind taken from the ECMWF reanalysis field, shows a positive correlation (.1% level of significance) between the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (June through September) and the momentum transport of wave zero TM(0) over latitudinal belt between 25‡S and 5‡N (LB) during March. Northward (Southward) TM(0) observed in March over LB subsequently leads to a good (drought) monsoon season over India which is found to be true even when the year is marked with the El-Nino event. Similarly a strong westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March, indicates a good monsoon season for the country, even if the year is marked with El-Nino. The study thus suggests two predictors, TM(0) over LB and the strength of westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March.     

Variabilité isotopique des précipitations sahéliennes à différentes échelles de temps à Niamey (Niger) entre 1992 et 1999 : implication climatiqueIsotopic variability of Sahelian rainfall at different time steps in Niamey (Niger, 1992–1999): climatic implications

The isotopic content of rainfall was measured in Niamey (Niger) over a period of eight years (1992–1999). Seasonal distribution of rainy events depends on the monsoon movement over the region. At the beginning and at the end of the rainy season, low rainfall, high temperatures and low relative humidity favour isotopic enrichment. In the middle of the rainy season, heavy rainfall, low temperatures and relative humidity close to saturation lead to isotopically depleted contents because of the mass effect; moreover, in the case of low rainfall, marked vertical convective development favours high altitude condensation. How far the Intertropical Front moves north, determines the quality of the rainy season and influences the isotopic contents. Thus the isotopic contents of rainfall are good climatic indicators. To cite this article: J.-D. Taupin et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 43–50     

Vegetation influences on water yields from grassland and shrubland ecosystems in the Chihuahuan Desert

This study examines runoff generated under simulated rainfall on Summerford bajada in the Jornada Basin, New Mexico, USA. Forty‐five simulation experiments were conducted on 1 m² and 2 m² runoff plots on grassland, degraded grassland, shrub and intershrub environments located in grassland and shrubland communities. Average hydrographs generated for each environment show that runoff originates earlier on the vegetated plots than on the unvegetated plots. This early generation of runoff is attributed to soil infiltration rates being overwhelmed by the rapid concentration of water at the base of plants by stemflow. Hydrographs from the degraded grassland and intershrub plots rise continuously throughout the 30 min simulation events indicating that these plots do not achieve equilibrium runoff. This continuously rising form is attributed to the progressive development of raindrop‐induced surface seals. Most grassland and shrub plots level out after the initial early rise indicating equilibrium runoff is achieved. Some shrub plots, however, display a decline in discharge after the early rise. The delayed infiltration of water into macropores beneath shrubs with vegetation in their understories is proposed to explain this declining form. Water yields predicted at the community level indicate that the shrubland sheds 150 per cent more water for a given storm event than the grassland. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

SIMULATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SUMMER OF 1998 OVER CHINA WITH REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL

The heavy rainfall in the summer of 1998 over China has been simulated with the NCCRegional Climate Model(RegCM_NCC).It was successful for RegCM_NCC to reproduce thelocation and seasonal shift of the seasonal rain belt in the summer of 1998 over China.The rainyseason in the summer of 1998 over China can be divided into 7 episodes,including the pre-summerrainy season in South China.the Meiyu onset over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin,shortappearance of North China rain season and the retreat of seasonal rain belt,the second Meiyuseason over the Yangtze River Valley,the rainy period over the Yellow and Huaihe River Valleyand the seasonal retreat of rain belt over North China.The shortcoming of the RegCM_NCC isover-estimation of precipitation amounts.The regions with large latent heat flux,upper soilmoisture and total runoff are located in the rainy area and move with the simulated rain belt duringthe different episodes.On the contrary,the regions with small sensible heat flux are located in thesimulated rainy area and move with the simulated rain belt during the different episodes.