Evidence for a seismic activity mainly constituted of hybrid events at Cayambe volcano,Ecuador. Interpretation in a iced-domes volcano context

The high activity level of Hybrid Events (HE) detected beneath the Cayambe volcano since 1989 has been more thoroughly investigated with data from a temporary array. The unusual HE spectral content allows separating a high-frequency signal riding on a low-frequency one, with a probable single source. HEs are interpreted as high frequency VT events, produced by the interaction between magmatic heat and an underground water system fed by thaw water from the summital glacier, which trigger simultaneous low-frequency fluid resonance in the highly fractured adjacent medium. Pure VTs are interpreted as ‘aborted’ HEs occurring probably in the oldest and coldest part of the volcano complex. To cite this article: B. Guillier, J.-L. Chatelain, C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

Abrupt climate change: An alternative view

Hypotheses and inferences concerning the nature of abrupt climate change, exemplified by the Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, are reviewed. There is little concrete evidence that these events are more than a regional Greenland phenomenon. The partial coherence of ice core δ¹⁸O and CH₄ is a possible exception. Claims, however, of D-O presence in most remote locations cannot be distinguished from the hypothesis that many regions are just exhibiting temporal variability in climate proxies with approximately similar frequency content. Further suggestions that D-O events in Greenland are generated by shifts in the North Atlantic ocean circulation seem highly implausible, given the weak contribution of the high latitude ocean to the meridional flux of heat. A more likely scenario is that changes in the ocean circulation are a consequence of wind shifts. The disappearance of D-O events in the Holocene coincides with the disappearance also of the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets. It is thus suggested that D-O events are a consequence of interactions of the windfield with the continental ice sheets and that better understanding of the wind field in the glacial periods is the highest priority. Wind fields are capable of great volatility and very rapid global-scale teleconnections, and they are efficient generators of oceanic circulation changes and (more speculatively) of multiple states relative to great ice sheets. Connection of D-O events to the possibility of modern abrupt climate change rests on a very weak chain of assumptions.     

早涝碱咸综合治理与生态环境良性循环

华北平原东部淡水资源短缺，旱涝碱成灾害限制了农业生产的可持续发展。海河的治理，解决了排洪排涝排咸出路。春季开发利用地下水包括微咸水和半咸水抗旱灌溉。夏季利用伏雨洗盐排咸，增大降雨入渗，减少径流流失，防治渍涝灾害，把降雨转化为地下水资源。秋冬引蓄河水，回灌地下水补源。以土壤与潜水的地层空间作为调节大气降水、土壤水、地下水、地表水的地下水库，以调控地下水埋深在临界动态为指标，最大限度地把时空分布不均的天然降雨转化为可持续利用的水资源。地表水地下水联合运用，促使水资源采补平衡，降雨灌溉淋洗脱盐强于干旱蒸发积盐过程，地下水淡化强于矿化过程。实现旱涝碱咸综合治理，水土资源可持续利用，经济社会可持续发展，生态环境良性循环。     

上海“8.5”特大暴雨的成因和特点

利用WSR－88D多普勒雷达资料，通过分析2001年8月5日到8月6日产生于上海地区的特大暴雨过程的雷达回波特征，研究探讨这次过程的降水成因和降水特点。发现副热带高压边缘偏南气流的风速辐合、螺旋雨带中强回波短带的合并加强、风的垂直切变产生的辐合以及热带系统的高效率降水作用是这次暴雨过程的降水成因和降水特点。并提出了预报这类暴雨系统需要注意的要点：强降水回波的发生和发展加强往往和风场中的局地强辐合区相联系，利用多普勒雷达连续演变的风场资料，可及时了解辐合区的形成和演变过程，提前作出强降水可能性的预测。     

近百年中国东部夏季降水的时空变率

利用中国东部25°N以北28个站1880-1999年夏季季降水序列,用旋转复经验正交函数（RCEOF）方法,研究了中国东部地区百年干湿的时空演变规律。结果表明,夏季降水空间变率大值区依次为:长江中下游地区、淮河流域、江南、华北、西南及东北。除西南外的5个关键区大体上反映了从6月到8月夏季雨带自南向北椎进所滞留的地区。旋转空间位相分布揭示了长江中下游地区、江南、东北的旱涝异常主要表现为驻波振动特征;而淮河流域、华北、西南地区显示出降水异常信号具有部分的行波特征。尤其第4空间模显示出旱涝异常信号从东北南部可沿着黄淮下游传到长江下游地区。对于近百年中国东部地区夏季于湿变化,长江中下游地区、淮河流域、华北及东北四个地区都存在20-25年时间尺度的周期振荡;长江中下游地区及华北地区都存在准60年时间尺度的振荡周期;东北地区主要表现出36年时间尺度的振荡周期;淮河流域存在明显的70-80年时间尺度的振荡周期;华北地区存在的11年时间尺度的振荡周期恰好与太阳黑子活动的11年周期相一致。在年代际时间尺度（包括次年代际时间尺度）上,长江中下游、淮河流域及华北地区的夏季降水的变化与太阳活动有显著的正相关。     

南疆西部山区一次特大暴雨特征分析

通过对2001年9月22－23日南疆西北部山区特大暴雨的环流背景、物理量场、卫星云图分析，揭示了这场特大暴雨的物理机制和各要素场特征。     

An integrated hydrological model for rain‐induced landslide prediction

This paper describes an extension to the Combined Hydrology And Stability Model (CHASM) to fully include the effects of vegetation and slope plan topography on slope stability. The resultant physically based numerical model is designed to be applied to site‐specific slopes in which a detailed assessment of unsaturated and saturated hydrology is required in relation to vegetation, topography and slope stability. Applications are made to the Hawke's Bay region in New Zealand where shallow‐seated instability is strongly associated with spatial and temporal trends in vegetation cover types, and the Mid‐Levels region in Hong Kong, an area subject to a variety of landslide mechanisms, some of which may be subject to strong topographic control. An improved understanding of process mechanism, afforded by the model, is critical for reliable and appropriate design of slope stabilization and remedial measures. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Momentum transport of wave zero during March: A possible predictor for the Indian summer monsoon

Analysis of monthly momentum transport of zonal waves at 850 hPa for the period 1979 to 1993, between ‡S and ‡N for January to April, using zonal (u) and meridional (v) components of wind taken from the ECMWF reanalysis field, shows a positive correlation (.1% level of significance) between the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (June through September) and the momentum transport of wave zero TM(0) over latitudinal belt between 25‡S and 5‡N (LB) during March. Northward (Southward) TM(0) observed in March over LB subsequently leads to a good (drought) monsoon season over India which is found to be true even when the year is marked with the El-Nino event. Similarly a strong westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March, indicates a good monsoon season for the country, even if the year is marked with El-Nino. The study thus suggests two predictors, TM(0) over LB and the strength of westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March.     

Variabilité isotopique des précipitations sahéliennes à différentes échelles de temps à Niamey (Niger) entre 1992 et 1999 : implication climatiqueIsotopic variability of Sahelian rainfall at different time steps in Niamey (Niger, 1992–1999): climatic implications

The isotopic content of rainfall was measured in Niamey (Niger) over a period of eight years (1992–1999). Seasonal distribution of rainy events depends on the monsoon movement over the region. At the beginning and at the end of the rainy season, low rainfall, high temperatures and low relative humidity favour isotopic enrichment. In the middle of the rainy season, heavy rainfall, low temperatures and relative humidity close to saturation lead to isotopically depleted contents because of the mass effect; moreover, in the case of low rainfall, marked vertical convective development favours high altitude condensation. How far the Intertropical Front moves north, determines the quality of the rainy season and influences the isotopic contents. Thus the isotopic contents of rainfall are good climatic indicators. To cite this article: J.-D. Taupin et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 43–50