An experiment on reservoir representation schemes to improve hydrologic prediction: coupling the national water model with the HEC-ResSim

ABSTRACT

This study experiments with reservoir representation schemes to improve the ability to model active water management in the National Water Model (NWM). For this purpose, we developed an integrated water management model, NWM-ResSim, by coupling the NWM with HEC-ResSim, and two reservoir representation schemes are tested: simulation of reservoir operations and retrieval of scheduled operations. The experiments focus on a pilot reservoir domain in the Russian River basin – Lake Mendocino, California – and its contributing watershed. The evaluation results suggest that the NWM-ResSim improves the simulation performance of reservoir outflow from this managed reservoir over the NWM default level pool routing scheme. The degree of this improvement depends on the suitability of the operation guidance; the reservoir operations simulation scheme could have acceptable errors for the purposes of water resources management, but not for flood operations. Results of the retrieval scheme of scheduled operations demonstrated better performance for sub-daily flood operations.     

古尔班通古特沙漠大气边界层参数化方案的模拟评估[1]

为准确描述我国最大的固定/半固定沙漠-古尔班通古特沙漠区域的大气边界层结构，本文利用该沙漠腹地2017年的梯度铁塔和通量观测数据，基于中尺度气象模式WRF (Weather Research and Forecast v3.7.1)，分析了5种边界层参数化方案在古尔班通古特沙漠的适用性。结果表明：1）采用WRF模拟沙漠腹地近地层内的边界层特征时，2m气温的模拟存在冷偏差，5种边界层参数化方案均能较好地模拟出四个季节2m气温的日变化特征，其中非局地方案ACM2(Asymmetric Convective Model version 2)对2m气温效果最好，局地方案BL方案的模拟偏差最大；2）5种边界层参数化方案均能够模拟出10m风速的日变化特征，其中局地方案BL(Bougeault-Lacarrere)对10m风速效果最佳；3）采用WRF模拟沙漠近地层内的地表通量特征时，感热通量存在高估现象，潜热通量存在低估现象，5种边界层参数化方案均能较好地模拟出四个季节模拟时间段内地表净辐射通量的日变化特征，其中局地方案MYJ(Mellor-Yamada-Janjie)的模拟精度最高。     

Modification Of The Standard ∈-Equation For The Stable Abl Through Enforced Consistency With Monin–Obukhov Similarity Theory

A condition is derived for consistency of the standard-equation with Monin–Obukhov (MO) similarity theory of thestably-stratified surface layer. The condition is derivedby extending the procedure used to derive the analogous condition forneutral theory to stable stratification. It is shown that consistencywith MO theory requires a function of flux Richardson number, Ri_f, to be absorbed into either of two closure parameters, c ₁ or c ₂.Inconsistency, on the other hand, results if constant values of these are maintained for all Ri_f, as is done in standardapplication of the equation, and the large overpredictions ofturbulence found in such application to the one-dimensionalstable atmospheric boundary layer (1D-SBL) are traced to thisinconsistency. Guided by this, we formulate a MO-consistent-equation by absorbing the aforementioned function intoc ₁, and combine this with a Level-2.5 second-orderclosure model for vertical eddy viscosity and diffusivities.Numerical predictions of the 1D-SBL by the modified model converge to a quasi-steady state, rectifying the predictive failure of the standard -equation for the case.Quasi-steady predictions of non-dimensional variables agree stronglywith Nieuwstadt's theory. Qualitative accuracy of predictionsis inferred from comparisons to field data, large-eddy simulationresults and Rossby-number similarity relationships.     

云模式中气溶胶物理过程参数化方案研究概述

介绍了大气气溶胶的浓度、气溶胶的谱形等物理性质对云的微物理过程造成的影响以及目前云模式中常用到的一些气溶胶物理过程的体积水、分档等参数化方案，并评述了这些参数化方案各自的特点。提出了在设计气溶胶物理过程参数化方案时需要注意和有待解决的几个问题，建议在设计气溶胶-云相互作用的模式时，要根据不同的研究目的选择合适的参数化方案。     

GRAPES模式不同云物理方案对短期气候模拟的影响

在胡志晋、刘奇俊云物理方案的基础上，研制了GRAPES模式的云降水显式方案。用不同云物理方案开展了短期气候（月尺度）过程的模拟试验，并与地面观测资料和NECP再分析资料进行了对比分析。模拟的结果表明，耦合了云降水显式方案的GRAPES模式较好地模拟出了中国地区降水、温度、云量、长短波辐射的特点和分布规律。气候模拟中冰相过程和暖云过程模拟的降水、温度、云量和辐射差异较大，不同相态的水凝物及其分布对辐射特征有较大的影响，混合相云物理方案的模拟结果与实况更为吻合，应使用混合相云物理方案进行短期气候的模拟。     

气象遥感资料变分校准方案改进及应用试验

针对常见气象遥感资料变分校准方案的不足，提出了一个改进方案。该方案不需要将校准参照量插值到遥测资料的格点上，既避免了对稀疏的校正参照量进行客观分析的困难，也避免了校正参照量稀缺区域不准确插值分析带来的不利影响，使遥感资料的整体偏差得到修订的同时，能够更好地保持遥测资料的空间分布形态不变。利用国家卫星气象中心通过9210下发的ATOVS反演产品进行了试验，结果表明改进方案校准效果好；并将校准后的ATOVS反演资料用于Grapes三维变分同化系统，应用试验表明校准后的ATOVS反演资料在三维变分同化系统中具有应用价值。     

一个简单的雪晶辐射参数化方案及雪晶辐射对中尺度降水的影响

文章提出一个简单的雪晶辐射性质参数化方案, 并利用1998年6月8日华南暴雨资料研究了雪晶的辐射性质对于中尺度降水的影响。结果表明:雪晶的辐射性质对中尺度降水的影响是不可忽略的, 白天尤为显著; 它能够明显地改变中尺度降水的局部特征, 特别是降水中心的强度和位置, 而对降水的分布影响不大。因此, 建立独立的雪晶辐射参数化对提高中尺度模式对中尺度降水的预报能力是必要的。     

APPLICATION OF BDA SCHEME IN TYPHOON TRACK PREDICTION

The MM5, which is the PSU/NCAR mesoscale nonhydrostatic limited-area model, and its adjoining modeling system are used in this paper. Taking T106 analysis data as background field the authors generate an optimal initial condition of a typhoon by using two bogus data assimilation schemes, and conduct some numerical simulating experiments. The results of No.9608 typhoon (Gloria) show that the optimal initial field have some dramatic improvements, such as inaccurate position of typhoon center, weaker typhoon circulation and incomplete inner structure of the typhoon, which are caused by shortage of data over the sea. Some improvements have been made in the track forecast. Through several comparing experiments, the initialization optimized by BDA scheme is found to be more reasonable than GFDL scheme and its typhoon track forecast is better.     

边界层参数化方案对暴雨数值模拟的影响

选取2003年7月4-5日南京暴雨个例，采用非静力中尺度模式MM5进行模拟，着重研究了不同边界层参数化方案对雨量中心强度、雨区分布的影响。结果表明：对于不同的边界层参数化方案，垂直速度场、水汽通量散度场、涡度场、水平风场的散度以及θse场都表现出不同的特征；合理边界层方案的引入对预报效果有明显的改进；结合边界层和自由大气的动力、热力结构进行了综合分析，给出了边界层作用与自由大气动力、热力结构的配置情况。说明这种配置对暴雨的形成是至关重要的。     

小波变换上升方案及其在图像融合中的应用

介绍了小波变换的上升方案,使用上升方案实现了CDF(Cohen-Daubech ies-Feauwell)(2,2)双正交小波。与传统小波变换相比,基于上升方案的小波变换具有构造简单、运算方便的特点,而且可以根据实际需要构造新的小波。在传统小波图像融合算法的基础上,提出了更为通用的小波变换融合方法,在基于子带的融合过程中体现了高频信息的竞争以及低频信息的协同。这既考虑了如何克服因为待融合影像不同的成像方式带来的块效应,又能方便地根据用户需要改善影像融合质量。