Remote sensing of forest insect disturbances: Current state and future directions

Insect disturbance are important agents of change in forest ecosystems around the globe, yet their spatial and temporal distribution and dynamics are not well understood. Remote sensing has gained much attention in mapping and understanding insect outbreak dynamics. Consequently, we here review the current literature on the remote sensing of insect disturbances. We suggest to group studies into three insect types: bark beetles, broadleaved defoliators, and coniferous defoliators. By so doing, we systematically compare the sensors and methods used for mapping insect disturbances within and across insect types. Results suggest that there are substantial differences between methods used for mapping bark beetles and defoliators, and between methods used for mapping broadleaved and coniferous defoliators. Following from this, we highlight approaches that are particularly suited for each insect type. Finally, we conclude by highlighting future research directions for remote sensing of insect disturbances. In particular, we suggest to: 1) Separate insect disturbances from other agents; 2) Extend the spatial and temporal domain of analysis; 3) Make use of dense time series; 4) Operationalize near-real time monitoring of insect disturbances; 5) Identify insect disturbances in the context of coupled human-natural systems; and 6) Improve reference data for assessing insect disturbances. Since the remote sensing of insect disturbances has gained much interest beyond the remote sensing community recently, the future developments identified here will help integrating remote sensing products into operational forest management. Furthermore, an improved spatiotemporal quantification of insect disturbances will support an inclusion of these processes into regional to global ecosystem models.     

Interpretation of Repulsive Bifurcation of the Kuroshio and Gulf Stream with Classification of Their Branches

Distinctive features of the repulsive bifurcation of Kuroshio and Gulf Stream jets, induced from various observations, have been examined by equations of motion of a 1 1/2 -layer model in natural coordinates, although causes of the bifurcation are discussed little. From the conservation of volume flux through paths above a main thermocline, we have derived the equation M _n K _In + M _s K _Is = 0 for northern (n) and southern (s), steady-state curved jets, just downstream of the bifurcation from a straight jet, where M is momentum flux through the path and K _I, positive for cyclonic deflection of the streamline, is the curvature of a certain intermediate streamline in the laminar path. Assuming concentric streamlines in the curved path, which is narrower than 1–0.5 times the radius of curvature of the center streamline of the path, and symmetric momentum flux through a path element of unit width with respect to the center streamline, we found that K _I approximates to the curvature averaged across the path, relative errors being <0.25−(0.25)². Bifurcation starts with a ‘Big Bang’ and the leading turbulent front of a split jet may be unsteady, but the succeeding laminar part can be regarded as stationary or as translating at a constant velocity, as if frozen. Thus, such features are described by the equation. A provisional classification is given of various warm extrusions along branches of both Streams, all of which exemplify the repulsive bifurcation, except for the mainstreams with very narrow (< 30–40 km) branches, possibly due to misapplication of the model. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Long‐term spruce budworm outbreak dynamics reconstructed from subfossil trees

We reconstructed the long‐term spruce budworm (SBW) (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) outbreak dynamics in the boreal forest of Quebec (Canada) using a dendrochronological approach with subfossil trees. Although the majority of the excavated wood belonging to the genus Picea could potentially reveal the past activity of spruce budworms in the tree rings, very few were cross‐dated due to a lack of marker rings. All cross‐dated trees were found within a particular zone of the peat bogs and the floating chronology was radiocarbon dated to ca. 5.1 cal ka BP. The results presented in this study suggest that the dynamics of SBW outbreaks in the studied area fluctuated during the last millennia and that severe outbreaks as observed during the 20th century seldom occurred in that part of the boreal forest since the end of the last glaciation. These results are in agreement with observations from other parts of eastern North America. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

江淮地区孤立对流云统计特征

孤立对流云是江淮地区重要的降水云系,通过分析江淮地区2013—2016年6—9月的多普勒天气雷达数据,统计得到664个对流云,其中孤立对流云196个,占江淮地区对流云发生频率的29.5%,7月和8月是江淮地区孤立对流云的高发期,6月相对较少,9月最少,同时12：00（北京时,下同）—18：00是孤立对流云的高发时段,05：00—07：00孤立对流云发生频率最低。针对2013年7月20日安徽定远出现的孤立对流云个例,综合分析多普勒天气雷达和C波段连续波雷达探测资料,发现此次暖区孤立对流云内部强反射率因子中心交替生成,导致内部反射率因子呈强弱交替出现的波状结构,沿着移动方向由弱到强,降水粒子下落速度与之对应,降水粒子最大落速出现在孤立对流云中下部的强反射率因子区域,速度超过10 m·s-1。     

生态因子在黄海绿潮生消过程中的作用

2008–2017年南黄海海域连续10 a发生绿潮,影响周边沿海城市养殖、旅游和航运安全等。研究绿潮生消过程及其影响因素对于理解黄海绿潮分布特征,开展绿潮灾害的预防与治理有重要意义。本文主要采用MODIS L1B数据,通过归一化植被指数提取绿潮信息。根据逐年绿潮覆盖面积的变化特征,将绿潮生消过程分为3个阶段:触发阶段、快速发展阶段、消衰阶段,分析了海表温度、降水和光照在绿潮生消过程中的作用。结果表明:在触发阶段,温度达到15°C后,有效降水可以刺激绿潮的触发,在降水后的半个月内可以通过MODIS影像发现绿潮。在快速发展阶段,绿潮所在位置海表面温度为16～21°C,适宜绿潮的快速生长;太阳短波辐射集中在250～280 W/m2范围内;降水量是影响绿潮生长规模的一个重要因素,降水量少时绿潮覆盖面积峰值明显较小,而出现绿潮覆盖面积最大值的2016年降水量也极高。在消衰阶段,海表温度上升至22～26°C,绿潮在卫星影像中消失时,平均海表温度超过26°C,最高温度可达27.48°C,较高的海表面温度是导致绿潮消亡的主要原因之一;太阳短波辐射集中在240～260 W/m2,略低于快速发展阶段光照范围;降水量在该阶段相对充足不再影响绿潮的生长。     

LAGRANGIAN METHOD USED IN THE RESEARCH OF ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION

Based on the conservation of entropy and potential vorticity in adiabatic atmospheric motion without theconsideration of friction,calculation is made of the trajectory of a particle on an isentropic surface by use ofthe data of FGGE III-b.Results of several calculation schemes of the trajectory discussed show that thelocal data interpolation and Runge-Kutta time-integral scheme is the best.The calculated trajectory reflectsthe large-scale atmospheric motion only and the small-scale motion emerges as a deviation term of thecalculated trajectory.And then the outbreak and propagation of planetary wave are studied by means ofthe deformation of a material line,with the result showing that the material line can be tracked in the trop-osphere only in a few days,beyond which the interaction between the small-scale waves and large-scale motionleads to its dramatical twisting and deformation.Therefore,the Lagrangian method is assumed to be an effectivemeans of diagnostic research in the nonlinear interaction in atmospheric circulation,in addition to the generalstudy of the atmospheric circulation.     

德钦县城直溪河泥石流成灾模式及运动过程模拟

云南省德钦县曾多次暴发较大规模的泥石流,是云南遭受地质灾害最严重的地区之一。根据直溪河泥石流的分区、物源、流体和堆积等特征,首先确定了直溪河泥石流的5种成灾模式：崩塌-碎屑流、岩质滑坡-碎屑流、土石混合体滑坡-碎屑流、松散堆积层-基岩接触面滑坡-碎屑流和松散堆积层内滑坡-碎屑流;其次,采用FLO-2D模型对直溪河在10年、20年、50年和100年一遇暴雨周期下发生泥石流时的运动情况进行模拟,定量分析了不同降雨重现期的最大流速、最大堆积深度、冲出沟口堆积距离和体积规模。结果表明：该泥石流暴发时具有启动加速度大、流速快、破坏力强、流通区长的特点;当100年一遇的泥石流发生时,其最大流速达到了3.07 m/s;最大泥深为2.27 m;泥石流冲出方量为84419 m3;致灾面积达到91600 m2。研究结果可为直溪河泥石流灾害防治与治理提供数据参考,为德钦县防灾减灾工程设计提供依据。     

中国COVID-19疫情扩散的时空模式及影响因素

在2020年全球暴发新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情的背景下,揭示中国疫情扩散时空模式及影响因素对于科学制定防疫策略具有重要作用。针对2020年1月24日—3月18日期间中国COVID-19疫情从快速扩散到逐步控制的完整过程,基于累计确诊病例数据,以317个地级市为对象,建立疫情扩散时空模式判别模型,结合峰位置、半峰间距、峰度、偏度等参数,解析时空模式的基本特征;基于交通可达性、城市关联程度和人口流动构建多元Logistic回归模型,揭示时空模式的关键影响因素。结果显示：① 距武汉市直线距离588 km为判别疫情扩散4种空间模式的有效边界,综合同一空间模式下的时间过程类别,得到13类疫情扩散时空模式。② 蛙跳型的疫情扩散相对严重;除近距离蛙跳型以外,其余空间模式的疫情扩散时间过程差异明显;各种时空模式的新增确诊病例峰值大多为2020年2月3日;所有普通类城市的平均半峰间距约为14 d,与COVID-19病毒的潜伏期一致。③ 与武汉市的人口关联度主要影响蔓延型和近距离蛙跳型空间模式,与武汉市的通航状况对远距离蛙跳型空间模式具有正向影响,迁出人口数量对蛙跳型空间模式有显著作用,综合型空间模式受初级和次级疫情暴发地的双重影响。不同城市应根据自身的疫情扩散时空模式,在疫情期间高度重视交通管控,从关键环节遏制疫情扩散。     

热带气旋闪电活动特征研究综述

针对热带气旋(tropical cyclone,TC)闪电已有研究,首先从闪电活动分布特征、眼壁闪电爆发对TC强度和路径的指示、外雨带闪电活动与雨带对流结构的关系三个方面进行了总结;其次从动力-微物理方面对TC闪电的形成原因和特征机理进行了梳理;最后提出当前研究中存在的两个关键问题,并对后续研究内容进行了展望。基于地基和空基相结合的综合闪电探测得到的闪电属性特征参量,有望建立一个明确的、具有代表性的闪电活动-TC强度变化关系。利用沿海地区架设的三维闪电定位系统结合地基双偏振雷达,针对登陆台风强对流过程开展的综合观测研究,将有助于推进闪电观测资料在台风中小尺度强对流监测、预警和资料同化中的应用。