PRELIMINARY STUDY OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS OF SST IN SOUTH CHINA SEA AND TROPICAL INDIAN OCEAN AND SOUTH CHINA SEA MONSOON OUTBREAK

Conclusions are divided regarding the role of the variations of thermodynamics in the monsoon activity for the South China Sea region. In this study, primary eigenvectors are studied for the SSTA from East Asia to the tropical eastern Indian Ocean in May. The results show that temperature anomalies that center on Sumatra are closely related with the outbreak of the South China Sea monsoon. When the SST is warmer (cooler) than average year, it is likely that the monsoon set in late (early). It may be caused by the changes in meridional difference in thermodynamics between the Indochina Peninsula and its southern tropical oceans. Studying the temporal and spatial evolution of primary eigenvector distribution of the SSTA in the South China Sea-tropical eastern Indian Ocean from winter to summer, we find that the temperature anomalies that center around Sumatra in late spring and early summer can be traced back to the variations of the SST fields in the South China Sea in the preceding winter. Being well associated with the outbreak of the South China Sea monsoon, the latter is a signifi-cant index for it. The work helps understanding the atmospheric and oceanic background against which the South China Sea monsoon breaks out and behaves.     

气候变化影响下高山区泥石流形成机制研究及展望

全球范围内高海拔或高纬度山区（以下简称高山区）,尤其高山冰川冻土急剧消退地区,广泛发育泥石流灾害。在全球气候变暖的大背景下,高山区泥石流的现实危害和潜在风险日渐凸显。与其他环境条件下泥石流过程主要由降雨激发不同,高山区泥石流的暴发多受降雨和温度条件的共同影响,其形成机制更为复杂,预测预警十分困难,因此加强高山区泥石流研究具有重要的科学价值和实践意义。通过述评近期高山区泥石流起动研究的主要进展,包括泥石流暴发与气象条件的关系,典型高山区泥石流事件成因,冰川冻土体消融破坏机制,以及冰碛土泥石流起动特征,认为未来高山区泥石流研究应加强高时空分辨率气象数据获取和物源动态变化分析研判,并从动力学机制层面进一步明晰高山区泥石流起动条件和发育过程。     

汉江中下游水华防控生态调度研究

汉江中下游1992-2021年冬春季节共计暴发了十余次大规模水华事件,水生态安全和饮用水安全频繁受到威胁.基于历次水华发生情况,分析总结了汉江中下游水华特征和暴发成因,根据水华与水文过程响应关系研究提出了抑制水华的关键指标及其调控阈值,构建了汉江中下游水利工程联合生态调度方案,明确了抑制水华的生态调度方式和调度持续时间...     

Study of on‐site versus off‐site forecasts for Canadian Forces Base Summerside

Abstract

On‐site and off‐site forecasts for the CFB Summerside aerodrome, written coincidentally over a six‐week period, are verified using the Ranked Probability Score and compared by means of a two‐tailed test of paired differences. The results show that, at a 10% level of significance, forecasts made on‐site are significantly better than forecasts made off‐site for at least four hours into the forecast period. When compared with persistence, both forecast offices were superior. At no time did the persistence forecasts score significantly better than those issued by a meteorologist. When compared with climatology, on‐site forecasts were significantly better for the first nine hours, while off‐site forecasts were significantly better for the first ten hours.     

Macrobenthic community structure and species composition in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea in jellyfish bloom

To understand the characteristics of macrobenthic structures and the relationship between environment and benthic assemblages in jellyfish bloom, we studied the macrobenthos and related environmental factors in the coastal waters of the Yellow Sea and East China Sea. Data were collected during two seasonal cruises in April and August of 2011, and analyzed with multivariate statistical methods. Up to 306 macrobenthic species were registered from the research areas, including 115 species of Polychaeta, 78 of Crustacea, 61 of Mollusca, 30 of Echinodermata, and 22 of other groups. Nine polychaete species occurred at frequencies higher than 25% from the sampling stations： Lumbrineris longifolia, Notomastus latericeus, Nin6e palmata, Ophelina acuminata, Nephtys oligobranchia, Onuphis geophiliformis, Glycera chirori, Terebellides stroemii, and Aricidea fragilis. Both the average biomass and abundance of macrobenthos are higher in August （23.8 g/m^2 and 237.7 ind./m^2） than those in April （11.3 g/m^2 and 128 ind./m^2）; the dissimilarity ofmacrobenthic structures among stations is as high as 70%. In terms of the dissimilarity values, we divided the stations into four clusters in spring and eight in summer. The ABC curve shows that the macrofauna communities in high jellyfish abundance were not changed. Canonical correspondence analysis showed that depth, temperature, median grain size, total organic carbon of sediment and total nitrogen in sediment were important factors affecting the macrozoobenthic community in the study area.     

The Atmospheric Boundary-Layer Structure Within A Cold Air Outbreak: Comparison Of In Situ, Lidar And Satellite Measurements With Three-Dimensional Simulations

A cold-air outbreak over the Mediterranean, associated with a Tramontane event, has been simulated with the atmospheric non-hydrostatic model Meso-NH using a horizontal resolution of 2 km. Results are compared with in situ aircraft, airborne lidar and satellite measurements. On average, the mean and turbulent parameters simulated in the surface layer and mixed layer compared well with in situ measurements. The model was able to reproduce accurately the Foehn effect in the wake of Cape Creus, as well as the occurence of rolls in the coastal region in connection with cloud streets observed with AVHRR. Over the sea, the threshold value of turbulent kinetic energy defining the height of the atmospheric boundary-layer top in the model (defined as 25% of the maximum turbulent kinetic energy in the profile) enables the simulated atmospheric boundary-layer height to match the one retrieved from lidar measurements. Nevertheless, the model did not handle very well the abrupt gradients of all meteorological parameters observed at the top of the atmospheric boundary-layer. Reasons for this are investigated.     

黄海水温与沙海蜇丰度年际变化的相关分析

近十年来,我国黄、东海沙海蜇的数量呈上下波动趋势,除2008、2010、2011、2013年为不暴发年外,其余年份均为暴发年或弱暴发年(本文界定沙海蜇平均丰度范围为2—10ind./100m2为暴发年,1—2ind./100m2为弱暴发年,0—1ind./100m2为不暴发年)。为研究沙海蜇数量年际变化的原因,本文借助同化的海洋模式结果,分析了2006—2013年南黄海沙海蜇平均丰度与表底层海水温度的关系、与不同温度持续时间的关系。研究结果发现,在海州湾附近,对于暴发年2007年和2009年,春季底层海水10—18°C持续时间为130天,比不暴发年2010年和2011年多近15天。在长江口区域,不暴发年2008年和2011年夏秋季底层海水18—25°C持续时间较长,约80天,比暴发年2007年多20天。在长江口、苏北近岸以及海州湾区域,春季底层海水10—18°C持续时间越长,南黄海水母丰度呈现越大的趋势;夏秋季底层海水18—25°C持续时间越长,第二年水母生物量则越大。结果支持和验证了春季底层10—18°C持续时间长有利于当年水母暴发及夏秋季底层18—25°C持续时间长有利于来年水母暴发的推论。本文通过分析沙海蜇丰度和温度变化的关系,可以为将来预测该水母数量提供基础。     

震后深切拉槽型泥石流成因模式、暴发特点与防治:以四川九寨沟牙扎沟为例

以四川九寨沟地区牙扎沟泥石流为研究对象,通过数次野外调查及历史资料的统计,详细研究该泥石流的暴发特点、临界雨量及暴发成因,在成因模式分析的基础上提出相应的防治方案。研究结果表明:泥石流具有隐蔽性、突发性、破坏性和输沙能力较强的暴发特点;汶川地震后泥石流暴发的临界雨量仅为2008年“5·12”汶川地震前的一半,2014年至今流域未发生泥石流,临界雨量有逐渐恢复的趋势;短历时强降雨、深切拉槽式物源补给和高陡的地貌条件是泥石流暴发的根本原因;泥石流的成因模式为“降雨渗流、岩土饱水、山洪冲击、沟道深切拉槽、溯源侵蚀、冲刷淘蚀、岸坡侧蚀坍塌、悬移滚动”。这种震后 “拉槽”式泥石流治理应在提高设防标准和优化治理结构形式的同时,以控制集中区物源启动为主、拦挡为辅的防治思路为指导。研究结果可为该地区类似泥石流的防治及预警提供借鉴。     

High resolution characterization of northwest Mediterranean coastal waters thermal regimes: To better understand responses of benthic communities to climate change

In the North West Mediterranean (NWM), mass mortality events (MME) of long-lived benthic species that have occurred over the last two decades have been related to regional warming trend. Gaining robust data sets on thermal regimes is critical to assess conditions to which species have adapted, detect extreme events and critically evaluate biological impacts. High resolution temperature (T) time series obtained during 1999–2006 from 5 to 40 m depth at four contrasted sites of the NWM were analyzed: Area Marina Protegida de les Illes Medes (NE Spain), Riou (Marseilles, France), Parc National de Port-Cros (France), and Réserve Naturelle de Scandola (Corsica, France). The seasonal pattern showed winter T around 11–13 °C, and summer T mainly around 22–24 °C near surface to 18–20 °C at depth. Stratification dynamics showed recurrent downwellings (>40 m) at Medes, frequent observation (1/3rd of the summer) of deep and cold upwelled waters at Riou, while Scandola exhibited stable summer stratification and highest suprathermoclinal T. Port-Cros showed an intermediate regime that oscillated between Riou and Scandola depending on the occurrence of northern winds. Data distribution study permitted to identify and to characterize 3 large scale positive anomalies concomitant with the mass mortality outbreaks of summers 1999, 2003 and 2006. The analysis of biological surveys on gorgonian populations showed significant impacts during the 3 years with temperature anomalies. Besides the degree of impact showed inter-annual differences which could be related to different T conditions concomitant to mortality events, from slight increase in T extreme of only 1–2 °C over short duration, to lengthened more classical summer conditions. Our results therefore support the hypothesis that shallow NWM populations of long-lived benthic species are living near their upper thermal thresholds. Given actual trends and projections in NWM, the repetition of new MMEs in the next decades is extremely likely. In such context, the acquisition of dedicated high resolution T series proves to be crucial for increasing our detection, understanding and forecasting abilities.     

伴随南海夏季风爆发的大尺度大气环流演变

主要基于美国NCEP和NCAR的再分析资料（1980～1996年），针对南海夏季风爆发日期进行合成分析，研究了伴随南海夏季风爆发的大尺度大气环流演变。其结果清楚地表明伴随南海夏季风爆发，南亚和东南亚地区的对流层低层风场、对流层高层位势高度场以及大气湿度场和垂直运动场都有极显著的变化。南亚和东南亚850 hPa上涡旋对的发展和活动以及500 hPa副高从南海地区的东撤对南海季风爆发起着重要作用。伴随南海夏季风的爆发，在孟加拉湾到南中国海一带整层湿度和500 hPa垂直上升运动都出现了极明显的增加。对流层高层和对流层低层环流演变的特征也清楚表明，南海夏季风爆发既是全球环流冬夏演变的一个部分，又有显著的区域性特征。本文还指出南海夏季风在北部比中部和南部早建立的结论依据不足，进而补充给出了亚洲季风爆发日期示意图。