COMPARISONS OF EOF AND CCA METHODS IN EXPERIMENTS WITH TYPHOON TRACK

A predictive model for 24-120 h track of the tropical cyclone over the South ChinaSea is set upusing the predictors of CLIPER and with reference to those of EOF and CCA. This EOF-and CCA-basedmodel is compared with dependent and independent samples in veritring forecasts'Analpees appltwg themethods to 500-hPa geopotential heights have shown that the CCA method is able toconcentrate moreoriginal information of variable fleld that has the best global correlation withtropical cyclone track andthus reduces more efficiently error arisen in forecast,despite that can0nicaldistribution of weighted vari-able coefficients derived by it is less well-defined or smoothed of a spacialpattern as is done by eigenvec-tor in the EOF method. The verification indicates a certain degree of skill in both track predictive model,though better results are yielded in the CCA-based one, whose mean vector errorare 159.27, 314.84,524.12, 813.03, and 987.12 km, respectively for periods of 24, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h. The modelmakes an objective approach for prediction of short-and medium-range track of tropical cyclone in theSouth China Sea.     

高密度电法与微动技术组合在岩溶塌陷分区中的应用分析——以广西来宾吉利塌陷为例

为了验证物探技术在岩溶塌陷调查中的应用效果,本文于广西来宾市吉利村开展了高密度电法和微动技术野外探测研究。结果表明:高密度对称四极电测深能直观地反映第四系覆盖层的厚度和低阻异常的深度,微动技术能定性地判定地下暗河和岩溶破碎带在地表的平面投影,将两种方法相结合能更加准确地圈出塌陷,以及引起塌陷的溶洞、地下河、断层破碎带及软土分布范围。地下暗河或岩溶破碎带在高密度联合剖面法上反映为低阻正交点异常,极距为45 m时正交点附近电阻率值约为250 Ω?m;在微动H/V比值谱上反映为H/V极大值异常,极大值特征频率在2~6 Hz之间。依据2测线上的高密度电法和微动异常显示,圈出了两个易塌陷区,经对其中的一异常进行钻探验证,异常区覆盖层下42 m 厚的灰岩地层中钻遇溶洞8个,其中最大的高达5.7 m。      

Precipitation patterns and associated hydrological extremes in the Yangtze River basin,China, using TRMM/PR data and EOF analysis

Abstract

A decadal-scale study to retrieve the spatio-temporal precipitation patterns of the Yangtze River basin, China, using the Tropical Rain Mapping Mission, Precipitation Radar (TRMM/PR) data is presented. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) based on monthly TRMM/PR data extracts several leading precipitation patterns, which are largely connected with physical implications at the basin scale. With the aid of gauge station data, the amplitudes of major principal components (PCs) were used to examine the generic relationships between precipitation variations and hydrological extremes (e.g. floods and droughts) during summer seasons over the past decade. The emergence of such major precipitation patterns clearly reveals the possible linkages with hydrological processes, and the oscillations in relation to the amplitude of major PCs are consistent with these observed hydrological extremes. Although the floods in some sections of the Yangtze River were, to some extent, tied to human activities, such as the removal of wetlands, the variations in major precipitation patterns are recognized as the primary driving force of the flow extremes associated with floods and droughts. The research findings indicate that long-distance hydro-meteorological signals of large-scale precipitation variations over such a large river basin can be successfully identified with the aid of EOF analysis. The retrieved precipitation patterns and their low-frequency jumps of amplitude in relation to PCs are valuable tools to help understand the association between the precipitation variations and the occurrence of hydrological extremes. Such a study can certainly aid in disaster mitigation and decision-making in water resource management.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor A. Montanari

Citation Sun, Z., Chang, N.-B., Huang, Q., and Opp, C., 2013. Precipitation patterns and associated hydrological extremes in the Yangtze River basin, China, using TRMM/PR data and EOF analysis. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (7), 1315–1324.     

改进的正交多项式变换在地震资料去噪中的应用

水平叠加虽然在很大程度上压制了噪声,提高了地震剖面的信噪比,但CMP遭集上还存在不少不是一次波的规则干扰和随机噪声,不利于叠前资料的岩性反演和叠后资料的波阻抗反演.本文提出了基于改进的正交多项式变换压制地震资料中随机噪声的方法,其优势在于:通过对不同时间信号的奇异值分解,确定有效信号正交多项式系数谱的阶数;再利用小波变换,改善有效信号和噪声在低阶上的混叠.文中给出了具体处理的过程,数据试验和实际资料的处理结果表明该方法不仅能有效地压制噪声,而且还能较好地保护地震数据中AVO变化特征.     

地震活动多参数综合变量的异常分析方法以青海两次7级地震为例

本文根据随机场理论, 提出了一种地震活动多参数综合变量的新方法。 该方法是对地震活动随机场函数进行自然正交函数展开, 然后研究由地震应变释放E、 地震平均距离D、 地震平均时间间隔T和地震发生率N等4个活动参数线性组合构成的综合变量。 通过对场的综合变量分析, 提取大地震前地震活动性异常。 作为震例, 讨论了1990年青海共和7.0级地震和2010年青海玉树7.1级地震。 结果表明, 这两次7级地震前主要综合变量均出现非常明显的异常变化, 显示出与这两次地震有较好的对应关系。 地震活动场的综合变量能将各个原变量所包含的不十分明显的差异集中地表现出来, 使得反映出来的异常变化尽可能明显。 笔者认为, 综合变量方法是地震预测研究中一种可能有效的分析方法。     

热带印度洋上层洋流的动力统计诊断

作者对热带印度洋上层洋流作了空间的三维经验正交函数(EOF)分析,揭示其与印度洋偶极子和ENSO循环的关系.结果表明:热带印度洋上层流场偏差的前3个三维模态都具有赤道俘获波的性质,第一、二、三模态均具有2～4年的准周期,第一、三模态分别对应于第一、二类印度洋偶极子模态,第二模态则是ENSO在印度洋的延伸模态.由三维EOF各模态可直接计算各模态的垂直速度场.印度洋海温的年际变化主要取决于印度洋地区的海气耦合状态,然而ENSO循环也有很大影响,其影响也许是通过沃克环流的啮合作用来实现的.     

GRACE卫星重力场同震变化的经验正交函数分解:以日本M_W9.0地震为例

2011年3月11日日本东海发生MW9.0地震,造成日本岛整体东移、下沉并伴随巨大的质量重新分布。对于海底地震的震中区域,空间观测的GRACE卫星重力数据很好地弥补了GPS、InSAR等形变资料的缺失。利用GRACE卫星月重力场数据计算了地面0.5°×0.5°网格点上的重力变化时间序列,采用最小二乘拟合、经验正交函数(EOF)2种方法,提取了同震重力变化,结果显示震中两侧区域的重力变化呈两极分布,其中弧后区域重力下降,最大降幅约6μgal,海沟区域重力增加,最大增幅约3μgal。EOF方法避免了最小二乘拟合方法所需的地震发生时刻等先验信息,但卫星重力信号是由多种地球物理过程引起的重力变化的叠加,EOF结果的可靠性及其反映的真实物理来源往往随着事件的规模、观测时间的长短等而改变。文中第2,3,4主成分主要反映了非构造因素的影响,通过第1主成分空间一致性提取的同震重力变化与位错理论模型计算结果较为接近,因此较真实地反映了地震引起的重力变化特征。     

Orientation effect on ground motion measurement for Mexican subduction earthquakes

The existence of the principal directions of the ground motion based on Arias intensity is well-known. These principal directions do not necessarily coincide with the orientations of recording sensors or with the orientations along which the ground motion parameters such as the peak ground acceleration and the pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) are maximum. This is evidenced by the fact that the maximum PSA at different natural vibration periods for horizontal excitations do not correspond to the same orientation. A recent analysis carried out for California earthquake records suggests that an orientation-dependent ground motion measurement for horizontal excitations can be developed. The main objective of this study is to investigate and provide seismic ground motion measurements in the horizontal plane, including bidirectional horizontal ground motions, for Mexican interplate and inslab earthquake records. Extensive statistical analyses of PSA are conducted for the assessment, The analysis results suggest that similar to the case of California records, the average behavior of the ratio of the PSA to the maximum resulting PSA can be approximated by a quarter of an ellipse in one quadrant; and that the ratio can be considered to be independent of the value of the maximum resulting PSA, earthquake magnitude, earthquake distance and the focal depth. Sets of response ratios and attenuation relationships that can be used to represent a bidirectional horizontal ground motion measurement for Mexican interplate and inslab earthquakes were also developed.     

基于正交多项式变换的CMP动校正道集随机噪声压制

本文提出了一种新的基于正交多项式变换来压制动校正后CMP道集上随机噪声的方法,将地震资料经过正交多项式变换,建立正交多项式系数谱,该谱描述了地震资料在正交多项式域的能量分布,可以较好地分离有效波和随机噪声,相对于固定阶次的基于正交多项式变换压制噪声的方法,所提出的方法根据能量随阶次变化的规律,自适应确定表达有效信号的正交多项式阶次,既提高了信号和噪声的分离效果,又有效地保护了地震信号中的AVO信息,对人工合成数据和实际资料的处理结果表明了所提出方法的有效性.     

随机结构分析的扩阶系统方法(Ⅰ)——扩阶系统方程

本文提出了一类新的随机结构分析方法——扩阶系统方法。文中首先论述了随机函数空间中的正交展开与次序正交展开概念。利用随机函数空间中的正交分解原理,证明了扩阶系统方程的正确性。