美国退出《巴黎协定》对全球温室气体排放的影响

现有研究表明美国退出《巴黎协定》将会在2025年导致其国内排放增加约1.2 Gt CO₂-eq,然而美国退出《巴黎协定》对全球气候治理的影响不仅限于此,还包括资金效应、政治效应,以及惯性效应等对全球排放的间接和长期影响。本文通过构建体现不同效应的全球温室气体排放情景,分析了美国退出《巴黎协定》后对全球温室气体排放可能造成的不同影响。结果表明,美国退出《巴黎协定》的自身效应、资金效应、对伞形国家的政治效应和对发展中国家的政治效应,将分别导致全球2030年的年温室气体净排放量(扣除碳汇吸收量后的温室气体排放量)上升2.0、1.0、1.0和1.9 Gt CO₂-eq,并导致全球2015—2100年的累计排放量分别上升246.9、145.3、102.0和270.2 Gt CO₂-eq。为防止美国退出《巴黎协定》的不利影响进一步扩大,中国应积极引领全球气候治理制度的建设与发展,与各国紧密合作全面平衡地推进《巴黎协定》的落实和实施。     

A Study of Shallow Cumulus Cloud Droplet Dispersion by Large Eddy Simulations

Cloud droplet dispersion is an important parameter in estimating aerosol indirect effect on climate in general circulation models (GCMs). This study investigates droplet dispersion in shallow cumulus clouds under different aerosol conditions using three-dimensional large eddy simulations (LES). It is found that cloud droplet mean radius, standard deviation, and relative dispersion generally decrease as aerosol mixing ratio increases from 25 mg⁻¹ (clean case) to 100 mg⁻¹ (moderate case), and to 2000 mg⁻¹ (polluted case). Under all the three simulated aerosol conditions, cloud droplet mean radius and standard deviation increase with height. However, droplet relative dispersion increases with height only in the polluted case, and does not vary with height in the clean and moderate cases.     

温室效应变化及其地理意义

在过去100年间，全球平均气温上升0．3－0．5℃，这种增温幅度与温度效应的预报结果相一致。也与气候变化的自然幅度相一致，由于温室气体效应，现代的气候变化与过去气候变化已有本质不同，经过进一步研究，多数科学家认为，全球变暖主要是大气中的温室气体增加造成的，温室效应变化具有重要的地理意义，增温幅度存在普遍适应的规律。冬季大于夏季，高纬度大于低纬度，陆地大于海洋。植物种群的更新及迁移可能跟不上气候变化的步伐，土壤的形成更将远远落后于气候变化，过渡带的生态系统将长时期内存在，它们将是不稳定的，脆弱的，物种的灭绝速度可能会因此加快，人类对生物资源的利用也许会面临新的问题和挑战。     

城市元胞自动机扩展邻域效应的测量与校准研究

城市元胞模型由于在定量分析与预测城市动态的潜力而受到众多研究者的持续关注.邻域规则是主导城市元胞模型模拟过程的关键组件.研究表明,不同土地利用组合间存在显著的邻域效应,且邻域效应具有惯性、排斥和吸引等影响.然而,传统城市元胞模型主要考虑的是特定分辨率下较小窗口的邻域范围.本文尝试刻画更大窗口的邻域效应及其对元胞模型的影响.基于测量的扩展邻域因子,应用粒子群优化算法校准大窗口邻域规则,并创建了考虑扩展邻域效应的城市元胞模型.为验证模型有效性,将其应用于模拟厦门市1995-2010年期间的城市扩张动态.与3×3摩尔邻域的逻辑回归模型相比较,1995-2010年期间的建设用地模拟精度从80.7％提高到83.9％,总体精度从87.8％提高到89.6％,Kappa系数从70.0％提高到74.5％,表明考虑扩展邻域效应的城市模型取得了更好的模拟效果.     

Effects of nitrate on phosphorus release: comparison of two Berlin lakes

After installation of phosphorus elimination plants at the inflows of the eutrophic Lake Tegel and Schlachtensee, phosphorus (P) loading declined by a factor of 40 and 100, respectively. This resulted in a pronounced reduction of phosphorus concentrations in the lake water, followed by a decline of chlorophyll‐a concentrations. However, for many years P release from sediments due to mineralization and desorption of sedimentary P continued. In Schlachtensee, the presence of nitrate above the sediment suppresses P release, because the Fe/P ratio is sufficient to provide enough aerobic sorption capacity. In Lake Tegel, some P release occurs even under aerobic conditions because of the low aerobic P sorption capacity of the sediments. There, nitrate could moderate the P release peaks which occur when the Fe‐P cycle at the sediment water interface is disturbed by precipitation of iron sulfide after reduction of sulfate during times of high mineralization intensity. The potentially mobile P pool in the sediments of both lakes is rather small, indicating that the P release could subside after sufficient reduction of the external P load in Lake Tegel and the disruption of the internal P cycle in Schlachtensee.     

水对受力岩石变形破坏宏观力学效应的实验研究

为了了解水对受力岩石的宏观力学效应,在MTS电液伺服材料试验系统上,对不同饱水度的砂岩、花岗闪长岩、灰岩和大理岩进行了单轴压缩试验,取得了这几种岩石的单轴抗压强度和弹性模量随饱水度变化的定量结果.结果表明,水对受力岩石的力学效应与岩石中的含水状态是密切相关的,自然状态的砂岩、花岗闪长岩浸水后,其峰值强度和弹性模量随饱水度的增加而迅速衰减,当饱水度达到某一定值时,这两种岩石的峰值强度和弹性模量基本稳定下来;文中用函数Y=Aexp（-Bx）+C对实验结果进行了最小二乘法拟合.实验中求得水饱和状态和自然状态砂岩的泊松比并没有明显差异,说明在宏观上水对该种岩石受力变形的作用是各向同性的.通过10^-5/s和10^-4/s两种不同应变率试验,发现水对受力岩石的力学效应具有时间依赖性,这一特点说明仅从有效应力原理来考虑水对受力岩石的力学效应是不够的,而应考虑应力腐蚀这样复杂的过程.此外,大理岩的试验结果表明,水对受力的碳酸盐类岩石的作用机理是一个值得进一步探讨的问题,它与水对受力的含SiO₂类岩石相比,可能存在差异.     

Diel Patterns in Chlorophyll <Emphasis Type="Italic">a</Emphasis> Specific Absorption Coefficient and Absorption Efficiency Factor of Picoplankton

Diel patterns in the chlorophyll a specific absorption coefficient of surface picoplankton, a*_pico (γ) (m²·[mg chlorophyll a]⁻¹), were studied at 7 stations under daily cycle of in situ light condition in the western subarctic Pacific and Japan Sea. All the data were normalized by dividing the anomaly with daily averaged a*_pico (γ). Opposite diel patterns were observed for the normalized a*_pico (443) and a*_pico (675) with maximum toward dawn or dusk and minimum toward midday at 4 stations under low-irradiance (LI) conditions and vice versa at 3 stations under high-irradiance (HI) conditions. The absorption efficiency factors at red absorption peak, Q _a (675), were determined by reconstruction with intracellular chlorophyll a concentration and cell diameter. The normalized Q _a (675) also showed diel pattern with maximum toward midday and minimum toward dawn or dusk under LI. The diel pattern in a*_pico (675) and Q _a (675) were primarily caused by changes in intracellular chlorophyll a concentration due to photoadaptation under LI. The diel pattern in a*_pico (443) was influenced by pigmentation, as recognized by blue to red ratio [a*_pico (443)/a*_pico (675)] under HI. This study proposed that the opposite diel pattern in a*_pico (γ) might occur for a wide range of algal species. The results presented here have important consequences for the interpretation of diel variations in optical properties observed in the open ocean.     

水库大容量气枪震源激发条件优化实验研究

通过人工拾取震相,统计记录台站数、台站最远观测距离、接收能量等3个参数,自主研发了最优工况处理软件来研判工况激发效果,并确定棉花滩水库最优工况为水深25m,枪阵沉放深度9m,枪阵尺寸7m×7m。对定点300次激发的每10次累计叠加结果进行分析后发现,叠加1090次时激发效果快速增强,100150次时缓慢增强,160240次时快速增强,250300次时缓慢增强,即随着叠加次数的增加,激发效果增强,传播距离和记录台数也逐步增加。     

Orographic effect on potential gradient

Potential gradients were measured in the valley of the Simhachalam hills and near the top. They were found to be higher at the top than in the valley, where they increased in the forenoon. It was the reverse at the top of the hills. The valley winds were found to play an important role in the variation of potential gradient.     

优化开发区域制造业企业迁移的因素及其区域影响——以广东东莞市为例

优化开发区域是区域发展的较高级阶段,其内部企业迁移的规律比较复杂。选择制造业发达地区——广东东莞市为案例区,采取半结构式访谈法和调查问卷法探讨优化开发区域制造业企业迁移的影响因素及其区域影响。研究表明,现阶段东莞市劳动密集型企业迁出和资本技术密集型企业迁入并存,劳动密集型企业迁出是要素成本、环境管制、区域依赖性和地方政府博弈相互作用的结果,而产业基础、区域创新要素、产业政策和区域软环境等因素促进资本技术密集型企业的迁入;企业迁移可以促进区域产业升级转型,提高区域生产空间质量和优化区域国土空间结构。