优选因子场预报方法的研究

现行的场预报方法,一般是根据预报量之间的统计关系,进行场分解,而后用经验正交函数建立预报方程,但却很少考虑到外界因子的作用。本文尝试把影响因于引入经验正交预报方法中。在这种优选因子场预报方法中,作者不仅考虑预报量之间内部的相互关系,而且也考虑了外部因子的影响,借助于从综合因子中优选因子,可以建立对于预报数量和等级都适用的最优预报方程。提出了权重相关系数的概念。与其他相关系数之间的明显差别是,它具有场的特征。本文还介绍了水湿的盐度预报的一些实例。     

白酒中几种含氮杂环化合物

实验确定了分析白酒中含氮杂环化合物的最佳条件：含氮杂环化合物在ｐＨ１～２的条件下成盐，酒样浓缩１０倍后以乙醚萃取除去中性杂质和酸性杂质，将样品ｐＨ再调至９，用乙醚萃取后ＫＤ浓缩，取样品进行气相色谱分析。以上述条件测定了茅台酒等６种名酒中的含氮化合物，发现各种酒中均有含氮杂环化合物存在，但因酒型的差别，化合物含量和组成模式相差较大。     

向量损失函数下2个尺度参数估计的线性容许性

在向量损失函数下 ,本文研究了含有尺度参数更一般线性模型中参数估计在线性估计类中的容许性 ,给出了估计可容许的充要条件     

海域油气勘查研究程度的优化分析

本文运用系统论、控制论和信息论是分析解决海域油气的“勘查研究程度”问题，不仅阐述了“勘查研究程度”的本质，而且阐明一些新颖的反映“勘查研究程度”特征的概念。     

Determination of source parameters of small earthquakes in the east part of Guandong and south part of Fujian Province

Determination of source parameters of small earthquakes from amplitude ratios of and is studied in this paper when the distribution of the regional seismic network is skew to the earthquakes. The distribution of stations of the seismic network was to one side of the 17 earthquakes chosen from among 39 earthquakes in the east part of Guangdong and south part of Fujiang Province. The distribution of stations was classified into three types according to their relative positions with respect to the chosen earthquakes and the experiments of artificial data were done. Excellent results were also presented in various unfavourable conditions by using the method. As to the 39 small earthquakes recorded by the network in east Guangdong and south Fujian Province from 1982 to 1986, the results can be summarized as follows: Most of the fault planes of the earthquakes apear to be steep. Most of the principal compression stressesP and tensile stressesT are nearly horizontal, concentrating in the WNW-ESE direction. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinia,13, 420–429, 1991.     

Seismic hazard in East Africa: An example of the application of incomplete and uncertain data

Earthquake hazard parameters maximum regional magnitude M _max and annual activity rate , and the b parameter of the Gutenberg-Richter relation have been evaluated for parts of East Africa. The applied maximum likelihood method permits the combination of both historical and instrumental data available (the catalog used here covers the interval 1880–1979). In addition, the uncertainty involved in magnitude determination and thresholds of completeness were taken into account. The hazard-parameter determination was performed for two study areas corresponding to segments of the eastern and western branches of the East African rift system. The results for these areas show differences that can be partly explained through the characteristics of the data.     

基于Hoek-Brown准则的节理岩体能量参数估算

岩体变形和破坏可以看作能量耗散和释放的过程.由于节理岩体结构复杂且难以开展室内试验,因此无法通过试验直接求取其能量学参数.基于Hoek-Brown准则和岩石能量理论,提出了节理岩体在临界状态能量学参数的估算方法.针对含贯通节理(或层面)岩体,通过修正岩块单轴抗压强度以体现贯通节理的方向效应.采用PFC3D分别模拟小尺寸岩样(Φ50mm×100mm)和大尺寸岩体(Φ2m×2m)的三轴压缩试验,通过岩石三轴试验结果拟合岩石数值模拟的细观参数并应用于节理岩体的模拟.根据节理岩体模拟得到应力应变曲线和能量流,验证了Hoek-Brown准则对节理岩体能量参数估算的合理性.