Evaluating soil water routing approaches in watershed-scale,ecohydrologic modelling

Soil water dynamics are central in linking and regulating natural cycles in ecohydrology, however, mathematical representation of soil water processes in models is challenging given the complexity of these interactions. To assess the impacts of soil water simulation approaches on various model outputs, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool was modified to accommodate an alternative soil water percolation method and tested at two geographically and climatically distinct, instrumented watersheds in the United States. Soil water was evaluated at the site scale via measured observations, and hydrologic and biophysical outputs were analysed at the watershed scale. Results demonstrated an improved Kling–Gupta Efficiency of up to 0.3 and a reduction in percent bias from 5 to 25% at the site scale, when soil water percolation was changed from a threshold, bucket-based approach to an alternative approach based on variable hydraulic conductivity. The primary difference between the approaches was attributed to the ability to simulate soil water content above field capacity for successive days; however, regardless of the approach, a lack of site-specific characterization of soil properties by the soils database at the site scale was found to severely limit the analysis. Differences in approach led to a regime shift in percolation from a few, high magnitude events to frequent, low magnitude events. At the watershed scale, the variable hydraulic conductivity-based approach reduced average annual percolation by 20–50 mm, directly impacting the water balance and subsequently biophysical predictions. For instance, annual denitrification increased by 14–24 kg/ha for the new approach. Overall, the study demonstrates the need for continued efforts to enhance soil water model representation for improving biophysical process simulations.     

Uncertainty in predictions of oil spill trajectories in open sea

A method is introduced to calculate and to account for the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which gives a measure of the uncertainty of the model given the uncertainties of the input parameters.Instead of a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method is applied to an oil spill that occurred in open sea near Madeira Islands, in the Atlantic Ocean, in December 1989. The simulations allow the understanding of how a change in the wind direction drove the spill towards the Islands.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling shows a band of trajectories that is in better agreement with the observations than the single trajectory simulated by the oil spill model, based on mean parameters.     

温度,盐度和风应力对南海海流模拟的影响

用美国普林斯顿大学海洋模式（ＰＯＭ）对南中国海的年平均海流进行了数值模拟,对温盐结构和风应力在海流形成中的作用进行了较详细的讨论。结果表明,仅有温盐水平不均匀分布也可以驱动海水而生成南海海流,但此种海流的结构较乱,最大流速只有３０～４０ｃｍ·ｓ－１。若温盐无水平结构,则在风应力驱动下,南海海流的结构较为有序,且最大流速可增至６０～７０ｃｍ·ｓ－１。在温盐水平分布不均匀并有风应力的作用时,生成的南海海流与仅有风应力作用时的海流场较相似,说明在南海海流的形成中,风应力的作用更为重要。海面自由高度的分析也证明了上述结论。     

Subduction of a fossil slow–ultraslow spreading ocean: a petrology-constrained geodynamic model based on the Voltri Massif,Ligurian Alps,Northwest Italy

Slow–ultraslow spreading oceans are mostly floored by mantle peridotites and are typified by rifted continental margins, where subcontinental lithospheric mantle is preserved. Structural and petrologic investigations of the high-pressure (HP) Alpine Voltri Massif ophiolites, which were derived from the Late Jurassic Ligurian Tethys fossil slow–ultraslow spreading ocean, reveal the fate of the oceanic peridotites/serpentinites during subduction to depths involving eclogite-facies conditions, followed by exhumation.

The Ligurian Tethys was formed by continental extension within the Europe–Adria lithosphere and consisted of sea-floor exposed mantle peridotites with an uppermost layer of oceanic serpentinites and of subcontinental lithospheric mantle at the rifted continental margins. Plate convergence caused eastward subduction of the oceanic lithosphere of the Europe plate and the uppermost serpentinite layer of the subducting slab formed an antigorite serpentinite-subduction channel. Sectors of the rather unaltered mantle lithosphere of the Adria extended margin underwent ablative subduction and were detached, embedded, and buried to eclogite-facies conditions within the serpentinite-subduction channel. At such P–T conditions, antigorite serpentinites from the oceanic slab underwent partial HP dehydration (antigorite dewatering and growth of new olivine). Water fluxing from partial dehydration of host serpentinites caused partial HP hydration (growth of Ti-clinohumite and antigorite) of the subducted Adria margin peridotites. The serpentinite-subduction channel (future Beigua serpentinites), acting as a low-viscosity carrier for high-density subducted rocks, allowed rapid exhumation of the almost unaltered Adria peridotites (future Erro–Tobbio peridotites) and their emplacement into the Voltri Massif orogenic edifice. Over in the past 35 years, this unique geologic architecture has allowed us to investigate the pristine structural and compositional mantle features of the subcontinental Erro–Tobbio peridotites and to clarify the main steps of the pre-oceanic extensional, tectonic–magmatic history of the Europe–Adria asthenosphere–lithosphere system, which led to the formation of the Ligurian Tethys.

Our present knowledge of the Voltri Massif provides fundamental information for enhanced understanding, from a mantle perspective, of formation, subduction, and exhumation of oceanic and marginal lithosphere of slow–ultraslow spreading oceans.     

油气化探异常形成的初步数字模拟

提出了油气地球化学异常形成动力学模型，并利用计算机进行数字模拟，通过数字模拟拟得出地表或近地表油气化探异常表现的顶部形态和环形形态是近地表地球化学作用的结果，油气球化学环形异常取于地下水中的碱土金属阳离子和非碱金属阳离子的浓度。     

Non-stationary covariance function modelling in 2D least-squares collocation

Standard least-squares collocation (LSC) assumes 2D stationarity and 3D isotropy, and relies on a covariance function to account for spatial dependence in the observed data. However, the assumption that the spatial dependence is constant throughout the region of interest may sometimes be violated. Assuming a stationary covariance structure can result in over-smoothing of, e.g., the gravity field in mountains and under-smoothing in great plains. We introduce the kernel convolution method from spatial statistics for non-stationary covariance structures, and demonstrate its advantage for dealing with non-stationarity in geodetic data. We then compared stationary and non- stationary covariance functions in 2D LSC to the empirical example of gravity anomaly interpolation near the Darling Fault, Western Australia, where the field is anisotropic and non-stationary. The results with non-stationary covariance functions are better than standard LSC in terms of formal errors and cross-validation against data not used in the interpolation, demonstrating that the use of non-stationary covariance functions can improve upon standard (stationary) LSC.     

Algorithm for HF radar vector current measurements

A new algorithm is proposed, called the stream function method (SFM) for producing vector current maps from radial data measured by dual-site high frequency surface wave radar (HFSWR). In SFM, a scalar stream function is constructed under some oceanographic assumptions. The function describes the two-dimensional (2-D) ocean surface water motion and is used to obtain the distribution of vector currents. The performance of SFM is evaluated using simulated radial data, which demonstrates that SFM has advantages over typical vectorial combination methods (VCM) both in error acceptance and robustness, and excels another method based on least-squares fitting (LSF) in recovering the complicated current models. Furthermore, SFM is capable of providing the total currents based on radials from single-site radar. We also test the assumptions of horizontal non-divergence in the simulation. The new algorithm is applied to the field experiment data of Wuhan University’s ocean state measuring and analyzing radar (OSMAR), collected in the coastal East China Sea during April 11–17, 2004. Quantitative comparisons are given between radar results by three current algorithms and in-situ current meter measurements. Preliminary analysis of the vertical current shear is given based on the current meter measurements.     

Assessing urbanisation effects on rainfall-runoff using a remote sensing supported modelling strategy

This paper aims at developing a methodology for assessing urban dynamics in urban catchments and the related impact on hydrology. Using a multi-temporal remote sensing supported hydrological modelling approach an improved simulation of runoff for urban areas is targeted. A time-series of five medium resolution urban masks and corresponding sub-pixel sealed surface proportions maps was generated from Landsat and SPOT imagery. The consistency of the urban mask and sealed surface proportion time-series was imposed through an urban change trajectory analysis. The physically based rainfall-runoff model WetSpa was successfully adapted for integration of remote sensing derived information of detailed urban land use and sealed surface characteristics.A first scenario compares the original land-use class based approach for hydrological parameterisation with a remote sensing sub-pixel based approach. A second scenario assesses the impact of urban growth on hydrology. Study area is the Tolka River basin in Dublin, Ireland.The grid-based approach of WetSpa enables an optimal use of the spatially distributed properties of remote sensing derived input.Though change trajectory analysis remains little used in urban studies it is shown to be of utmost importance in case of time series analysis. The analysis enabled to assign a rational trajectory to 99% of all pixels. The study showed that consistent remote sensing derived land-use maps are preferred over alternative sources (such as CORINE) to avoid over-estimation errors, interpretation inconsistencies and assure enough spatial detail for urban studies. Scenario 1 reveals that both the class and remote sensing sub-pixel based approaches are able to simulate discharges at the catchment outlet in an equally satisfactory way, but the sub-pixel approach yields considerably higher peak discharges. The result confirms the importance of detailed information on the sealed surface proportion for hydrological simulations in urbanised catchments. In addition a major advantage with respect to hydrological parameterisation using remote sensing is the fact that it is site- and period-specific. Regarding the assessment of the impact of urbanisation (scenario 2) the hydrological simulations revealed that the steady urban growth in the Tolka basin between 1988 and 2006 had a considerable impact on peak discharges. Additionally, the hydrological response is quicker as a result of urbanisation. Spatially distributed surface runoff maps identify the zones with high runoff production.It is evident that this type of information is important for urban water management and decision makers. The results of the remote sensing supported modelling approach do not only indicate increased volumes due to urbanisation, but also identifies the locations where the most relevant impacts took place.     

Spatially distributed tracer‐aided modelling to explore water and isotope transport,storage and mixing in a pristine,humid tropical catchment

Rapidly transforming headwater catchments in the humid tropics provide important resources for drinking water, irrigation, hydropower, and ecosystem connectivity. However, such resources for downstream use remain unstudied. To improve understanding of the behaviour and influence of pristine rainforests on water and tracer fluxes, we adapted the relatively parsimonious, spatially distributed tracer‐aided rainfall–runoff (STARR) model using event‐based stable isotope data for the 3.2‐km² San Lorencito catchment in Costa Rica. STARR was used to simulate rainforest interception of water and stable isotopes, which showed a significant isotopic enrichment in throughfall compared with gross rainfall. Acceptable concurrent simulations of discharge (Kling–Gupta efficiency [KGE] ~0.8) and stable isotopes in stream water (KGE ~0.6) at high spatial (10 m) and temporal (hourly) resolution indicated a rapidly responding system. Around 90% of average annual streamflow (2,099 mm) was composed of quick, near‐surface runoff components, whereas only ~10% originated from groundwater in deeper layers. Simulated actual evapotranspiration (ET) from interception and soil storage were low (~420 mm/year) due to high relative humidity (average 96%) and cloud cover limiting radiation inputs. Modelling suggested a highly variable groundwater storage (~10 to 500 mm) in this steep, fractured volcanic catchment that sustains dry season baseflows. This groundwater is concentrated in riparian areas as an alluvial–colluvial aquifer connected to the stream. This was supported by rainfall–runoff isotope simulations, showing a “flashy” stream response to rainfall with only a moderate damping effect and a constant isotope signature from deeper groundwater (~400‐mm additional mixing volume) during baseflow. The work serves as a first attempt to apply a spatially distributed tracer‐aided model to a tropical rainforest environment exploring the hydrological functioning of a steep, fractured‐volcanic catchment. We also highlight limitations and propose a roadmap for future data collection and spatially distributed tracer‐aided model development in tropical headwater catchments.     

A model for multiphase flow and transport in porous media including a phenomenological approach to account for deformation—a model concept and its validation within a code intercomparison study

Multiphase flow processes in unsaturated cohesive soils are often affected by deformation due to swelling and shrinking as a result of varying water contents. This paper presents a model concept which is denoted ‘phenomenological’ in terms of the processes responsible for soil deformation, since the effects of deformation on flow and transport are only considered by constitutive relations that allow an adaptation of the hydraulic properties. This new model is validated in a detailed intercomparison study with two state-of-the-art models that are capable of explicitly describing the processes relevant for the deformation. A ‘numerical experiment’ with a state-of-the-art reference model is used to produce ‘measurement data’ for an inverse-modelling-based estimation of the model input parameters for the phenomenological concept.