贵州冰雹灾害强度评估方法研究

【目的】为快速评估单次过程冰雹强度和范围,及时为灾后的救援、勘察和保险核灾工作提供参考依据,【方法】本文利用贵州省2021-2023年间的141次冰雹过程的多普勒天气雷达资料和探空资料,结合降雹观测资料和灾害损失调查记录,在贵州山区防雹业务预报预警指标的框架下,通过历史资料回算的定性评估结果跟网格化处理后的降雹数据做一致性对比,选取冰雹强度精细化评估的影响结果覆盖94%以上的降雹观测点位置且收敛性较好的阈值作为单时次的识别指标确定的依据,采用加权时间积分方法建立冰雹过程评估模型,该模型能够对冰雹过程进行精细化评估得到1km空间分辨率的评估结果。【结果】为验证评估结果的准确性,选取了一次典型灾害开展无人机遥感调查,反演结果与评估结果作对比检验,25处冰雹受灾位置中有22处降雹区位于评估范围的重度区域内,3处降雹区位于评估结果对应的中度灾害范围内,调查情况与冰雹精细化评估的强度范围和分布一致。以六盘水市风雹灾害损失记录和冰雹影响面积区域评估数据作对比分析,结果表明三种不同冰雹强度的评估面积与直接经济损失数据的两两相关系数均达到0.8以上,在0.01的显著性水平下进行假设检验,具有显著正相关。【结论】检验结果说明该评估方法在冰雹区域强度评估中能够较好地反映实际受灾程度。     

城市隐蔽管线多源探查方法

城市地下管线对城市的正常运转发挥了重要作用。隐蔽管线是城市地下管网的重要组成部分。本文根据莱州市城市隐蔽管线探查的特点,探讨了多源探查方法的理念及其在莱州市地下管线探查中的应用,并对其地下管线探测精度进行了验证。     

Verification and recalibration of HY-2A microwave radiometer brightness temperature

HY-2A is the first one of the Chinese HY-2 ocean satellite series carrying a microwave radiometer(RM)to measure sea surface temperature,sea surface wind speed,atmospheric water vapor,cloud liquid water content,and rain rate.We verified the RM level 1B brightness temperature(T B)to retrieve environmental parameters.In the verification,TB that simulated using the ocean-atmosphere radiative transfer model(RTM)was used as a reference.The total bias and total standard deviation(SD)of the RM level 1B TB,with reference to the RTM simulation,ranged-20.6-4.38 K and 0.7-2.93 K,respectively.We found that both the total bias and the total SD depend on the frequency and polarization,although the values for ascending and descending passes are different.In addition,substantial seasonal variation of the bias was found at all channels.The verification results indicate the RM has some problems regarding calibration,e.g.,correction of antenna spillover and antenna physical emission,especially for the 18.7-GHz channel.Based on error analyses,a statistical recalibration algorithm was designed and recalibration was performed for the RM level 1B TB.Validation of the recalibrated TB indicated that the quality of the recalibrated RM level 1B TB was improved significantly.The bias of the recalibrated T B at all channels was reduced to<0.4 K,seasonal variation was almost eradicated,and SD was diminished(i.e.,the SD of the 18.7-GHz channel was reduced by more than 0.5K).     

Water Cooperation Priorities in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin Based on Cooperative Events Since the Mekong River Commission Establishment

The Lancang-Mekong River has attracted much attention from researchers, but the cooperation on water issues in this river basin has been limited, even after the establishment of the Mekong River Commission(MRC). Cooperation on water resources has been determined as one of the key priority areas in the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Mechanism, but there are no details of targets. In order to establish the priorities of water cooperation under the mechanism, we adopted nine categories to classify the objectives of 87 water cooperation events based on the ‘Lancang-Mekong Water Cooperative Events Database' from 1995 to 2015. Based on the occurrence of cooperative events, cooperative objectives, cooperative scales, and approaches to cooperation, we conducted statistical, correlation, and text analyses. Our analyses indicated the following results: under the impact of economic conditions inside and outside the river basin, full cooperation appeared more difficult than bilateral and multilateral cooperation. Each of the partners adopted different preferences for cooperation targets. Cooperation with more definite objectives was easier to establish than cooperation with broader and more complex objectives. The potential objectives for water cooperation were navigation, hydropower, joint management, data sharing, flood control and water use. Because hydropower development is controversial, and because water cooperation is avoided by most existing regional cooperation mechanisms due to its complexity, we suggest the following priority areas for water cooperation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin. 1) Navigation and flood control/drought relief are attractive objectives for all the riparian countries across the whole watershed. 2) Data sharing should be a priority for cooperation in the watershed due to its laying the foundation for the equitable and reasonable utilization of transboundary waters. 3) Hydropower is an objective best implemented mainly through bilateral cooperation, and on tributaries.     

MASNUM海浪数值模式业务化预报与检验

介绍了MASNUM(Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling)海浪数值预报系统,并利用全球和西北太平洋的Jason-1卫星数据和NDBC浮标数据中的海浪波高观测,对该预报系统进行了自2007年8月1日-2007年12月31日5个月的24,48和72 h预报结果的比较检验.模式校验结果表明,有效波高预报与观测的绝均差在0.5 m左右,从夏季到冬季,预报精度不断提高,与风场冬季预报精度较高吻合.     

港域波浪数学模型的改进与验证

通过物理模型对改进的港内波浪传播变形数学模型进行验证。该数学模型以推广的时变缓坡方程为控制方程,采用含松弛因子的ADI法求解,并对波浪反射和透射边界模拟方法进行改进。先通过物理模型试验确定斜向浪入射条件下抛石防波堤前的波浪反射系数,作为数学模型中部分反射边界模拟的依据。然后进行了一个典型港口内波浪折射、绕射和反射的模型试验,测量港内波浪分布。对比模型试验和数学模型计算的结果表明,数学模型可较好地模拟港内复杂地形和边界条件下规则波和不规则波的传播变形。     

陕西秦岭巴山地区化探异常查证找矿实例分析

在陕西秦岭巴山地区9万km²内,通过1:20万区域化探扫面,发现了一批多元素综合异常,并根据地质构造背景分析划分出五个异常带(区)。其中新发现的北秦岭Au、Ag、Pb、Zn异常带,规模大、元素组合复杂且含量高,为一重要的金、多金属成矿带。1986年开始,在该区大力开展区域化探异常查证工作。通过1:5万水系沉积物测量,圈定了以金元素为主的化探异常。在主体异常部位系统地开展了1:1万土壤测量和槽探工程,于当年就在周至县马鞍桥发现了金矿体。随后又根据化探异常特征,布置了钻探和坑探工程验证。经进一步检查和详查,确认马鞍桥金矿为一大型金矿床。     

粤西云浮镇安-阳春罗阳地区地球化学特征与找矿方向

分析云浮镇安-阳春罗阳地区元素的分布、分配特征和区域地质背景后,指出该地区有找矿潜力,提出Au、Ag、Cu、Pb、Zn是重要的找矿元素,找构造蚀变岩型金矿、火山岩型金矿、岩浆热液型银-多金属矿前景好,主要的找矿标志是断裂和蚀变.     

油铀兼探的找矿思路在松辽盆地的应用——以中央拗陷区南部为例

以"油铀兼探"的找矿思路,带动松辽盆地中南部开展砂岩型铀矿调查选区及钻探验证工作.将异常强度250 API和450 API确定为划分潜在铀矿孔、潜在铀矿化孔和正常孔的关键技术指标,对中央拗陷区南部1572个钻孔进行异常筛查工作.排查发现潜在铀矿孔362个,潜在铀矿化孔223个.对191号钻孔和36号钻孔进行钻探验证,发现1个工业孔、1个异常孔.认为区内寻找砂岩型铀矿的有利地段为油田区反转构造形成的隆起区边部四方台组河流相砂体,并总结了中央拗陷区南部6种主要控矿因素.     

南海热带气旋的气候变化及强度预测方法研究

建立南海海域1949～2007年6～10月份热带气旋（以下简称TC）年、月频数和TC中心强度的历史资料统计文件,分析TC的年月变化。结果表明：近50年,TC具有10a左右的周期变化,1964～1974年和1985～1995年为南海两个强台风以上级别频发期,1997～2006年为TC频数少且强度弱的时期。同时TC强度的空间分布分析结果表明,中沙北部海域和东沙西部海域为强台风多发生区,各月TC强度分布特征明显不同,且其加强通道具有南-北-南阶段性变化。另外,通过分别对1949～2007年北半球500hPa高度场及海温场的格点资料和TC强度历史资料的相关计算,选取高相关格点,根据相关权重组成组合因子,构建二次型预测方程,做年月TC强度预测。预测检验结果显示,冬季的高度场和海温场对次年的TC强度预测效果良好。