GM（1，1）动态模型在吴江市地下水水位预测中的应用

以吴江市地下水水位预测为例,详细阐述了地下水水位时间序列的GM（1,1）动态模型的原理和建立过程,并根据模型的预测值和实测值,对模型的精度进行了检验,结果表明,模型的预测精度达到了99．27％,等级属于Ⅰ级,具有实际的应用价值,为地下水资源的科学管理提供了依据。     

扬州市6－7月份天气预报服务业务化系统

从地（市）级气象台的业务工作出发,试图建立通过微机实现的对上接收信息、对外预报服务、对下预报指导的三位一体的天气预报服务业务化系统,以发挥地（市）级气象台在经济建设和防灾减灾中的作用,推动天气预报和服务的现代化建设,把基层气象工作推向一个新的台阶。     

Using numerical modelling to evaluate tsunami hazard near the Kuril Island

A sequence of computer experiments is used to study questions concerning the tsunami problem as a quantitative estimate of tsunami danger, detailed geographical tsunami classification, determination of the parameters of critical tsunami waves, and the conditions of their development. We call a wave critical, if its impact on the coast is most hazardous.Using the Middle Kuril Island as an example, we present the results of a computer experiment which includes determining the wavefields on the shelf and estimating the effects connected with the deep-water Bussol and Diana Straits.Numerical simulation of tsunami waves of different sources permits the assessment of the extent of tsunami danger in different areas of the coastal zone of Simushir Island, depending on the location of the focus zone and their geometry.The major singularities of the wavefield arise in the zones of the deep-water straits. The distribution of the amplification factors is determined by both the global parameters of the wavefields and the local properties of individual harbours. The results obtained for a particular harbour in the northern part of Simushir Island, formed the basis for the quantitative estimate of tsunami danger for this area.     

台北凹陷中浅储集层孔隙预测及勘探有效下限探讨

在系统研究储层物性控制因素的基础上，分析台北凹陷中浅储集层物性分布规律以及压实程度特征，建立孔隙度一深度趋势法和压实减孔量法预测砂岩孔隙度．认为中侏罗统储层压实减孔量整体比较高，表现出“北高南低，生油凹陷内高、周边低”的特征．结合探井试油资料，确定侏罗系储集层有效下限的孔隙度值为9％，压实减孔量为34％，各构造带侏罗系储层深度有效下限总体上表现出“南深北浅、西深东浅”的特征．指出台北凹陷侏罗系储集层在有效下限以下勘探具有较大风险．     

区域性地质灾害气象预报方法研究

从气象的角度，基于对全国地质灾害预警区域的划分，利用历史地质灾害记录以及历史气象资料，分区建立了全国范围的区域气象潜势预报模型，并从2003年6月1日开始投入业务应用。总体预报服务效果较好，收到了较好的社会效益。同时还要进一步加强科学研究，提高科技含量，优化预报模型。     

西安市冬季采暖气象条件分析和预报方法初探

对西安市冬季采暖气象条件和预报方法进行了研究。根据国家采暖规范结合西安冬季采暖的实际，首先对西安1951年7月到2003年6月历年的逐日气象资料进行了详尽的分析，比较了国家采暖日期相关规范和规定中的3种不同的统计方法，确定了符合西安特点的采暖初终日。充分利用T213数值预报产品，对2002年和2003年两个冬半年的逐日850hPa和500hPa各时次各类气象要素及与之对应的西安各时次实况的气温作了相关分析，建立了回归方程，提出了采暖期及其逐日气温预报。     

黔东南地区短期气候预测方法研究

根据大气环流特征和小气候相关关系,找出预测黔东南地区春季倒春寒、3～6月降水量趋势、夏季及6～8月气温变化趋势和夏季旱涝趋势指标,用以制作黔东南地区长期天气趋势预测。     

一种短期气候预测集成技术的应用研究

以递归正权综合决策方案为基础，结合实际情况，首先对多种预报方法进行筛选，选取预报效果较好并且较为稳定的几种方法参与集成，并将集成结果写成Micaps数据格式，最终以图形方式显示出来。评分结果表明：该集成方法对温度预报和灾害指数预报较权重平均集成法效果好；而对月雨量预报和季度雨量、温度预报则与权重平均方法相当；但是对季度雨量、温度预报来说，集成后预测精度有明显提高。同时，将集成结果通过Micaps工作平台以图形方式显示，不仅客观、定量，而且更一目了然．     

山西运城市森林火险等级预报系统

利用有关气象及森林火灾资料，分析了林林火灾的发生与气象条件、火条件及森林含水率的关系，计算了森林火险综合预报指标，建立了以预报方程，经试用效果良好。     

Multi‐objective optimal design of FLC driven hybrid mass damper for seismically excited structures

Structural vibration control using active or passive control strategy is a viable technology for enhancing structural functionality and safety against natural hazards such as strong earthquakes and high wind gusts. Both the active and passive control systems have their limitations. The passive control system has limited capability to control the structural response whereas the active control system depends on external power. The power requirement for active control of civil engineering structures is usually quite high. Thus, a hybrid control system is a viable solution to alleviate some of the limitations. In this paper a multi‐objective optimal design of a hybrid control system for seismically excited building structures has been proposed. A tuned mass damper (TMD) and an active mass driver (AMD) have been used as the passive and active control components of the hybrid control system, respectively. A fuzzy logic controller (FLC) has been used to drive the AMD as the FLC has inherent robustness and ability to handle the non‐linearities and uncertainties. The genetic algorithm has been used for the optimization of the control system. Peak acceleration and displacement responses non‐dimensionalized with respect to the uncontrolled peak acceleration and displacement responses, respectively, have been used as the two objectives of the multi‐objective optimization problem. The proposed design approach for an optimum hybrid mass damper (HMD) system, driven by FLC has been demonstrated with the help of a numerical example. It is shown that the optimum values of the design parameters of the hybrid control system can be determined without specifying the modes to be controlled. The proposed FLC driven HMD has been found to be very effective for vibration control of seismically excited buildings in comparison with the available results for the same example structure but with a different optimal absorber. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.