利用天气数值预报产品建立贵州黔西南州分县温度预报方程的方法及应用

利用2002～2004年1～12月EC、T213天气数值产品的温度格点实时分析资料、预报资料以及贵州省黔西南州8个测站观测资料,从160个样本中筛选出相关较好的因子,利用多元回归统计模型,以及根据地理环境,天气形势分型造成的温度差值(ΔT)为逐步订正值,建立黔西南州分县温度预报方程。在2005年11月～2006年2月应用中取得较好效果,预报误差小于±3.0℃,平均误差1.3℃。     

The numerical solution of the Advection-Dispersion Equation: A review of some basic principles

The simulation of solute transport in rivers is frequently based on numerical models of the Advection-Dispersion Equation. The construction of reliable computational schemes, however, is not necessarily easy. The paper reviews some of the most important issues in this regard, taking the finite volume method as the basis of the simulation, and compares the performance of several types of scheme for a simple case of the transport of a patch of solute along a uniform river. The results illustrate some typical (and well known) deficiencies of explicit schemes and compare the contrasting performance of implicit and semi-Lagrangian versions of the same schemes. It is concluded that the latter have several benefits over the other types of scheme.     

Peak runoff contributing area as hydrological signature of the probability distribution of floods

For the analysis of hydrological extremes and particularly in flood prediction, deeper investigation is needed on the relative effects of different hydrological processes acting at the basin scale in different hydroclimatic areas of the world. In this framework, the theoretical derivation of flood distribution shows a great potential for development and knowledge advancement. In addition, another promising path of investigation is represented by the use of distributed hydrological models via simulation modelling (including Monte Carlo, discrete event and continuous simulation). In this paper results of a theoretically derived flood frequency distribution are analyzed and compared with the results of a simulation scheme that uses a distributed hydrological model (DREAM) in cascade with a rainfall generator (IRP). The numerical simulation allows the reproduction of a large number of extreme events and provides insight into the main control for flood generation mechanisms with particular emphasis to the peak runoff contributing areas, highlighting the relevance of soil texture and morphology in different climatic environments. The proposed methodology is applied here to the Agri and the Bradano basin, in Southern Italy.     

Groundwater-level Anomalies Associated with a Hypothetical Preslip Prior to the Anticipated Tokai Earthquake: Detectability Using the Groundwater Observation Network of the Geological Survey of Japan,AIST

We infer the groundwater-level anomalies associated with a hypothetical preslip prior to the anticipated M 8 Tokai earthquake, and evaluate the detectability of the anomalies using data from seven groundwater wells. We evaluate the detectability of the anomalies under the following assumptions: (1) an Mw 5.5–6.5 aseismic preslip event occurs at the plate boundary in and around the hypothetical focal zone of the Tokai earthquake; (2) the total amount of the strain step at each observation associated with the preslip can be calculated by tensile and shear faulting based on the dislocation model; (3) a normalized strain history associated with the preslip is defined from the results of numerical simulations based on rate- and state-dependent friction laws; and (4) the groundwater-level anomaly prior to the earthquake is proportional to the estimated history of the strain change associated with the preslip. We investigate the detection time of the anomaly at seven wells given an Mw 5.5, 6.0, or 6.5 aseismic preslip at one of the 272 grid points in and around the area of the hypothetical focal zone of the Tokai earthquake. As a result, over the time interval between 1 and 48 hours prior to the hypothetical Tokai earthquake, we are able to detect at each of the seven wells a hypothetical Mw 6.5 preslip at 10–86 of the 272 grid points, an Mw 6 preslip at 0–19 grid points, and an Mw 5.5 preslip at 0–5 grid points.     

海岸海洋潮流模拟可视化与虚拟现实建模

潮流数值模拟的科学可视化与虚拟现实是海岸海洋科学研究重要的现代技术手段之一。首先从地理信息系统的角度对潮流数值模拟系统的数据模型进行了论述，提出了适合水文数值模拟的对象模型方法；其次探讨了空间流场的可视化技术，阐述了虚拟现实在潮流数值模拟中的作用；最后设计并实现了一个海岸海洋潮流模拟虚拟现实的原型软件系统VRO－cean,并在南黄海辐射沙洲等的潮流数值模拟试验中进行了实际对比检验。     

Laplace方程Cauchy问题的一种数值解法

研究了Laplace方程Cauchy问题的数值求解，该问题是一个典型的病态问题。利用格林（Green）公式将Laplace方程的Cauchy问题转化为Hausdorff矩问题。本文利用一种新方法，即矩问题的积分方程方法，求解矩问题，设计了二维Laplace方程Cauchy问题稳定的算法，给出了近似解的误差估计，并对二维Cauchy问题进行了数值模拟。     

阿勒泰夏季大降水过程中高潜能场的时空变化特征分析

以大降水过程中触发高潜能量释放的天气系统为背景条件，以高潜能场为起报信息，对40个大降水个例进行统计、分析和归纳，概括出阿勒泰夏季大降水过程中，高潜能场的时空变化特征，从中得出预报阿勒泰夏季大降水的新指标，进一步提高了大降水预报的准确率。     

黑龙江省冰雹天气气候特征及防雹预警指标

以统计的近40年冰雹资料为基础，分析了黑龙江省冰雹天气分布规律及近年冰雹气候特征的变化。利用天气系统背景、卫星云图、不稳定因子以及雷达回波等指标，为人工防雹天气时机选择和作业方案设计提供了综合预警指标，为省级防雹预警系统提供了新的更接近实况的科学预警依据。