近岸溢油漂移扩散预测方法研究——以胶州湾溢油事件为例

近些年,由于中国经济的高速发展,原油需求逐年增长,同时海上溢油事故发生的风险也在加剧。海上溢油会严重破坏海洋环境,危害我国经济发展,加强溢油漂移扩散预报研究能够为海上溢油应急响应提供技术支撑。因此,国家海洋信息中心研发了海上突发事件应急一体化预测预警系统。该系统基于GIS平台研发,能够在二维电子海图基础上叠加相关的海洋环境动力要素信息,模拟溢油扩散和漂移态势,同时计算剩余油量,估算溢油面积以及岸线吸附程度等。2013年11月22日,山东黄岛发生输油管道爆炸事故,造成大量原油溢入胶州湾。本文利用该系统结合高分辨率大气模型WRF的三重嵌套技术和海流模型SELFE的非结构化网格加密技术,对事故溢油漂移扩散开展了预测工作。预测结果显示,油污受胶州湾内往复流的影响极大,72 h后,胶州湾内外大部分海域都将存在油污,主要集中在黄岛沿岸海域、团岛及浮山湾附近,预测扫海面积为70.32 km2。经海事部门高分辨率卫星观测结果印证,系统模拟的溢油分布较为合理。该系统的业务化应用为相关海上溢油污染应急工作提供了一定理论依据和参考。     

Discussion: A review on the behaviour of helical piles as a potential offshore foundation system

Abstract

Helical piles have emerged as an attractive foundation system for offshore applications with renewed interest from the offshore community. Significant research gap currently exists in transferring this technology offshore and this paper discusses how existing and emerging knowledge can be successfully used to bridge some of the gaps. We focus on the Coupled Eulerian Lagrangian (CEL) large deformation finite element (LDFE) modelling technique that is commercially available and can be used to model the three-dimensional installation process with consideration of strain rate and softening effects in soft offshore clays. A helical pile of L?=?7.5?m long is modelled with one or two large-diameter helices (D?=?2?m) attached to a central shaft of d?=?0.5?m in diameter.The net effect of strain rate and softening is to increase the installation torque. The measured torque is within the range of 200–400?kN.m for the offshore clay and the pile geometry studied. Additional helices increase the uplift force but to a lesser degree than that of the measured torque. Remoulding induced strength reduction is found to be within the range of 25–33% of the intact clay strength. Issues of extracting and reusing offshore helical pile foundations are discussed.     

一种基于BP算法学习的小波神经网络

为发展 Szu的基于信号表示的小波神经网络 ,提出一种多输入多输出的小波网络模型 ,网络隐层采用框架小波函数、输出层采用 Sigmoid激励函数 ,并选用“熵误差函数”以加速网络的学习速度。奇偶判别和混沌时间序列预测例子的实验结果表明了它具有良好的函数逼近能力和推广能力 ,收敛速度和均方误差均优于相同结构的多层感知器模型。     

黄海、渤海底层温度数值预报方法的研究

根据文献［ｌ］建立的底层温度（ＴＨ）与其水柱垂向平均温度（）的经验关系，结合流体动力学方程和（垂向平均）热传导方程，发展了以水气温差和风速为已知量的底层温度二维数值预报模式。该模式避开了海面热量和动量输入在垂直水柱中分配的复杂物理过程而直接报出底层水温场，具有较好的实用性；此外，从试报结果看，效果令人满意。     

A Numerical Model of Coastal Processes of Sand Beaches Based on Long-Term Wave Series

A numerical model of shoreline change of sand beaches based on long-term field wave data is proposed, the explicit and implicit finite difference forms of the model are described, and an application of the model is presented. Results of the application indicate that the model is sensitive to the order of the input wave data, and that the effects of long-term wave series and the effects of the mean annual wave conditions on the model are different. Instead of a single wave condition, the wave series will make the calibration and the verification of the model more practical and the results of the model more reasonable.     

不规则波折射物理模型试验研究

作者曾发表过“不规则波折射的数学模型〔１〕。为了与数学模型的计算结果相互验证，在大连理工大学海岸及近海工程国家重点实验室进行了不规则波折射物理模型试验。试验研究结果表明：提出的“不规则波折射数学模型”对频谱采用等能量分割、对方向分布采用等间隔（Δθ＝ｃｏｓｎｔ）分割的组成波折射线性叠加法是合理的、可行的，可供港口及海岸工程规划、设计应用     

连云港近岸海域物理自净能力研究及水质预测——Ⅲ.西大堤建成后对物质输运的影响

在连云港近岸海域计算潮流场基础上建立拉格朗日余流模型,并对连云港市两大堤建成前后的拉格朗日余流变化进行了分析,且选择有代表性的排污口进行了数值跟踪。     

松辽盆地西部张裂缝预测的应力场方法

以松辽盆地地质资料为基础，介绍了应力场和张裂缝预测的计算方法。通过了各种岩性的张破裂概率隶属函数，预测松辽盆地酉部张裂缝区的分布。据此，为今后的油气勘探提出了几点认识和建议。     

Influence of Approach Channel on Wave Propagation with Varying Incident Angles

- The variation of the amplitude of waves with varying incident angles when waves propagate through a typical approach channel is discussed by a numerical calculation method, the result of which shows that the influence of the channel on wave propagation is obvious. When the wave propagation direction is in coincidence with the channel axis, the wave amplitude ratio will decrease with the increase of propagation distance. When the incident angle is 15 - 30 , there appears an area of larger wave amplitude ratio on the side slope facing the waves, but at the another side, the wave amplitude ratio is generally small, indicating that the channel has a shielding effect. When waves propagate across the channel perpendicularly, the wave amplitude ratio can be calculated with the shallow water coefficient.     

Refraction-Diffraction Mathematical Model for Waves With Lateral Energy Transmission Mechanism and Its Verification

To solve problems concerning wave elements and wave propagation, an effective way is the wave energy balance equation, which is widely applied in oceanography and ocean dynamics for its simple computation. The present papaer advances wave energy balance equations considering lateral energy transmission and energy loss as the governing equation for the study of wave refraction-diffraction. For the mathematical model, numerical simulation is made by means of difference method, and the result is verified with two examples.