东营凹陷第三系隐蔽油气藏的地震预测研究

论述了山东省东营凹陷第三系隐蔽油气藏(四大类：岩性型、地层型、裂隙型和复合型)的识别与地震预测技术，应用相干分析、地震属性分析和Stratamagic等地球物理勘探技术，对隐蔽油气藏进行了预测、描述及油气综合评价，为勘探开发提供了井位，取得了显著的效果。     

地下水及溶质运移数值模拟系统

介绍了地下水及溶质运移数值模拟的研究进展、数值模型的分类和数值模拟的步骤。根据数值模拟中涉及到的地质信息资源的特点，提出了基于地理信息系统(GIS)技术的地下水及溶质运移数值模拟系统的设计思路。该系统能够对模拟区域的基础地质资料、水文地质勘探资料以及数值模型的输入、输出资料进行动态管理，而且随着勘探、科研和生产的不断进行，通过对数据库的及时更新以及对数值模型的不断校正，可为不同的科研和生产方案的预测与评价提供信息资源。     

A review of the physics and ecological implications of the thermal bar circulation

Following recent applications of numerical modelling and remote sensing to the thermal bar phenomenon, this paper seeks to review the current state of knowledge on the effect of its circulation on lacustrine plankton ecosystems. After summarising the literature on thermal bar hydrodynamics, a thorough review is made of all plankton observations taken in the presence of a thermal bar. Two distinct plankton growth regimes are found, one with production favoured throughout the inshore region and another with a maximum in plankton biomass near the position of the thermal bar. Possible explanations for the observed distributions are then discussed, with reference to numerical modelling studies, and the scope for future study of this interdisciplinary topic is outlined.     

Is Prediction of Future Landslides Possible with a GIS?

This contribution explores a strategy for landslide hazard zonation inwhich layers of spatial data are used to represent typical settings inwhich given dynamic types of landslides are likely to occur. Theconcepts of assessment and prediction are defined to focus on therepresentation of future hazardous events and in particular on themyths that often provide obstacles in the application of quantitativemethods. The prediction rate curves for different applications describethe support provided by the different data layers in experiments inwhich the typical setting of hazardous events is approximated bystatistically integrating the spatial information.     

Predictive GIS-Based Model of Rockfall Activity in Mountain Cliffs

Rockfall susceptibility has been analysed in mountain cliffs of the Cantabrian Range, North Spain. The main aim of this analysis has been to build a predictive model of rockfall activity from a low number of environmental and geological variables. The rockfall activity has been quantified in a GIS. The cartographic information used shows the spatial distribution of all the recent talus screes as well as their associated source areas in the rock-slopes. The area relation At/Ar (recent talus scree polygon/source basins) in the rock slopes has been used as the rockfall activity indicator. This relation has been validated in 50 pilot rock-slopes and compared with the relation number of recent rock fragments/source basin, obtained from field work. The environmental factors causing rockfall depend on the rock slope situation, and these are: altitude and sun radiation on the rock cliff. The geological factors considered are: lithology, relative position of the main discontinuities with respect to the topographic surface and two morphologic parameters: the roughness and slope gradient. A logistic regression analysis has been applied to a population of 442 limestone and quartzite rock cliffs. The dependent variable is the rockfall activity indicator, which allows the definition of two classes of rock cliff units: low and high activity. The independent variables are altitude, sun radiation (equinox radiation, summer solstice radiation, winter solstice radiation), slope roughness, slope gradient,anisotropy and lithology. Results suggest that it is possible tobuild a valid cartographic predictive model for rockfall activity in mountain rock cliffs from a limited number of easily obtainable variables. The method is especially applicable in massive rock slopes or in regions with uniform rock mass characteristics.     

Effect of the chemical composition of the crust on the metamorphic evolution of orogenic wedges

Petrological data provide a good record of the thermal structure of deeply eroded orogens, and, in principle, might be used to relate the metamorphic structure of an orogen to its deformational history. In this paper, we present two‐dimensional thermal modelling of various subduction models taking into account varying wedge geometry as well as variation of density and topography with metamorphic reactions. The models clearly show that rock type accreted in the wedge has important effects on the thermal regime of orogenic wedges. The thermal regime is dominated by radiogenic heat production. Material having high radioactive heat production, like the granodioritic upper crust, produces high temperature metamorphism (amphibolitic conditions). Material with low radioactive heat production results in low temperature metamorphism of greenschist or blueschist types depending on the thickness of the wedge. Application of this model to seemingly unrelated areas of the Central Alps (Lepontine Dome, Grisons) and Eastern Alps (Tauern Window) explains the coexistence and succession of distinct Barrovian and blueschist facies metamorphic conditions as the result of a single, continuous tectonic process in which the main difference is the composition of the incoming material in the orogenic wedge. Accretion of the European upper continental crust in the Lepontine and Tauern Domes produces Barrovian type metamorphism while accretion of oceanic sediments results in blueschist facies metamorphism in the Valaisan domain.     

Can flat-ramp-flat fault geometry be inferred from fold shape?: A comparison of kinematic and mechanical folds

The inference of fault geometry from suprajacent fold shape relies on consistent and verified forward models of fault-cored folds, e.g. suites of models with differing fault boundary conditions demonstrate the range of possible folding. Results of kinematic (fault-parallel flow) and mechanical (boundary element method) models are compared to ascertain differences in the way the two methods simulate flexure associated with slip along flat-ramp-flat geometry. These differences are assessed by systematically altering fault parameters in each model and observing subsequent changes in the suprajacent fold shapes. Differences between the kinematic and mechanical fault-fold relationships highlight the differences between the methods. Additionally, a laboratory fold is simulated to determine which method might best predict fault parameters from fold shape. Although kinematic folds do not fully capture the three-dimensional nature of geologic folds, mechanical models have non-unique fold-fault relationships. Predicting fault geometry from fold shape is best accomplished by a combination of the two methods.     

俯伪斜分段密集采煤法三维有限元数值模拟研究

俯伪斜分段密集采煤法,作为一种较新的采煤方法,在我国技术上还不很成熟,因此,首次针对京煤集团木城涧矿大台井的地质条件和赋煤状况,通过简化建立三维立体有限元模型,模拟计算了该矿煤层顶底板在开采前后运动变化情况。结果表明:煤层倾角、推采距离和开采巷道数三者是影响煤层顶底板运动规律的重要因素,得到了表征顶底板运动规律的顶底板法向最大应力和法向最大位移与三影响因素关系曲线,详细阐述了三影响因素下的煤层顶底板运动规律;同时,对现场开采中支撑压力大小,特别是在三影响因素下,超前支撑压力的作用范围与应力峰值位置进行了数值计算,并总结了其影响规律;最后,指出了该数值分析方法对现场开采将具有十分重要的应用价值和指导意义。     

京珠高速公路东西湖段软基处理数值分析

采用等效地基固结系数法,对京珠高速公路东西湖段软土地基,进行了比奥固结平面有限元分析。计算值与实测值比较接近。计算结果为选择地基处理措施和确定道面施工时间提供了依据,保证了竣工后该路段的工后沉降满足设计要求。     

Theory and Method of Mineral Resource Prediction Based on Synthetic Information

Metallogenic prognosis of synthetic information uses the geological body and the miaeral resource body as a statistical unit to interpret synthetically the information of geology, geophysics, geo-chemistry and remote sensing from the evolution of geology and puts all the information into one entire system by drawing up digitalized interpretation maps of the synthetic information. On such basis, differ-ent grades and types of mineral resource prospecting models and predictive models of synthetic informa-tion can be established. Hence, a new integrated prediction system will be formed of metallogenic prog-nosis (qualitative prediction), mineral resources statistic prediction (determining targets) and mlaeral resources prediction (determining resources amount).