对永胜6级地震的预报及依据

2001年10月27日在云南永胜发生6.0级地震，震前四川省地震局有较准确的中期和短临预报，加强了川滇交界地区的地震监测预报工作，并且向四川省政府作了汇报，取得了明显的社会效益。经验性地震预报重视川滇菱形地块西界断裂带动态活动图像的分析，尤其对历史强震破裂空段附近出现的中小震活动带或新活跃区段的研究；同时，重视4级前震群、川滇交界地区地下水位、水温、形变观测异常的跟踪分析和震情预测。     

加卸载响应比理论在华南地区中强震预测中的应用

用加卸载响应比理论对华南地区12例中强以上地震进行研究，结果表明有8例在震前响应比值有明显的高值（Y≥2.0）异常显示，通过对响应比值随时间变化特征的分析发现，响应比对5级左右地震有较好的中短期预测效果，因此响应比理论可作为本区地震预测的新方法。     

福建漳州、华安、龙岩地区地震时间分布结构信息维的特征

岩石破裂实验，地球岩石层断裂构造运动，地震孕育、发生和发展过程等研究表明，地震活动的时间、空间和强度分布特征具有分形结构。作为一种分维理论的应用，本文利用厦门数字化地震遥测台网的数据，采用信息的分析方法，对福建省的地震多发区-漳州、华安、龙岩地区的地震活动进行了分析和研究，讨论了信息维随时间变化的特征。     

2-D viscoelastic FEM simulation on stress state in the deep part of a subducted slab

Introduction It is found that there are some relationships between the thermal structures of subduction zones and the deep seismicity, while the mechanism relates the thermal structure and the deep seismicity is still unsure (Helffrich, Brodholt, 1991; Furukawa, 1994; Kirby, et al, 1996). From 1980s, geoscientists have constituted a series of numerical simulations on the stress states of subduction slabs. Based on the kinetic computation of Sung and Burns (1976a, b), Goto, et al (1983, 1987…     

介休井水位异常的调查与分析

从井孔周围地下水开采量变化、大气降雨补给量变化、农田灌溉用水量变化、矿井塌方、涌水、排水和地震活动等影响因素入手 ,对 1999年至 2 0 0 0年间介休井水位的 2次突降原因进行了调查。通过初步分析 ,表明介休井水位阶降型异常具有一定的震兆性质 ,其水位的缓慢上升与突然阶降意味着介休地区断裂活动在加速。其地震预测的意义是未来一段时间山西地震带内有发生MS≥ 5 0级地震可能     

Most likely locations of large earthquakes in the Kanto and Tokai areas, Japan, based on the local recurrence times

We examined the hypothesis that minima in local recurrence time, T_L, or equivalently maxima in local probability, P_L, may map asperities in the Kanto and Tokai areas of Japan, where the earthquake catalog of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) is complete at the M=1.5 (M1.5) level. We mapped T_L (P_L) based on the a- and b-values of the nearest earthquakes within 20 km of every node of a grid spaced 0.01° for M7 target events. Only earthquakes within the top 33 km were used. The b-values increase strongly with depth, in several areas. Therefore, some of the T_L (P_L) anomalies are not revealed if data from the entire crustal seismogenic zone are mixed. Thus, we mapped T_L (P_L) separately for the top 15 km and the rest of the depth range, as well as for the entire seismogenic crust. The resulting T_L- and P_L-maps show that approximately 12% of the total area shows anomalously short recurrence times. Out of six shallow target events with M≥6.5 and which occurred since 1890, five are located within the anomalous areas with T_L <450 years. We interpret this to mean that areas with anomalously short T_L map asperities, which are more likely than other areas to generate future target events. The probability that this result is due to chance is vanishingly small. The great Kanto rupture of 1923 appears to have initiated in the most significant asperity we mapped in the study area. One anomaly is located in the northeastern part of the area of the proposed future rupture of the Tokai earthquake, and another one at its southwestern corner. The absolute values of T_L calculated are uncertain because they depend on the size of the volume used for the calculation.     

含预制软弱带的岩石破裂过程的数值模拟

考虑到岩石脆性破坏过程中介质的不均匀性之特点，对岩石样品中含预制弱介质条带的岩石样品破坏过程进行二维有限元数值模拟，并对弱介质带的破坏贯通过程、新的断层的产生和有关的地震活动进行了研究．数值模型展示了岩石从变形、微观破坏到整体破坏的全过程以及微震活动的时空分布特征．应力、应变和微震活动的时空分布形象地描绘了岩石变形的局部化和时空迁移等现象，这与实际地壳中所观测到的现象是一致的．此外，模拟结果与实验观测结果也是一致或相似的．      

1999年台湾7.6级大震与江苏-南黄海地区中强震预测

分析讨论了台湾地区7级大震与本区中强震之间相关关系，指出1999年台湾7.6级大震后2－3年内，本区将有5－6级中强震发生。同时应用可公度模型和“带头地震”的异年倍九法联合对本区中强震发震时间进行分析预测。结论表明，该方法可以较好地应用于本区短临地震预报实践。     

Improved treatments for evaluating horizontal magnetic components through the 3-D FDM in E -polarization induction problems

To improve the accuracy of the numerical evaluation through the 3-D finite difference method, the surface boundary conditions are added to modify the old program. The author has tested the new program by making calculations for the model constructed by Wanamaker, et al (1984). The comparison between the numerical results obtained from this paper and those by Wannamaker, et al (1984) indicates that a pronounced improvement is realized in the evaluation of the horizontal magnetic components. Moreover, better calculations for the vertical magnetic components are also obtainable by using the new program.     

天津市地震经济损失模型和生命损失模型的预测研究

文中主要探讨了由地震引起的天津市经济损失和生命损失的预测问题。首先阐述了天津市震害预测的 5个背景特点 :建筑物特点、地质条件特点、建筑场地划分特点、基本设防烈度特点以及地震烈度衰减关系特点 ,根据这 5个特点将天津市划分为含有 7种建筑结构形式的 4个区域的震害预测模式。在此基础上 ,分析了天津市地震经济损失模型和生命损失模型 ,考虑了时间因素 ,然后与1976年唐山大地震的实际震害结果进行了对比及修正 ,给出了天津市 4个区域的建筑物地震经济损失率模型、社会财富损失率模型和建筑物毁坏率模型 ,并给出了计算天津市建筑物地震经济损失、天津市国内生产总值GDP地震经济损失和天津市地震生命损失的表达式 ;最后 ,将天津市地区划分为2 85 8个震害评估单元 ,以近百年来在天津市区域内曾经发生的最大地震作为假想地震 ,预测分析了天津市建筑物地震经济损失分布和地震生命损失分布结果