基于印度洋海温信号的我国西北地区东部夏季降水组合降尺度预测方法研究

利用国家气候中心第二代气候模式预测业务系统(BCC-CPSv2)预测产品,引入印度洋海温信号,采用组合降尺度方法建立了西北地区东部汛期降水预测模型。该预测模型对1991—2017年西北地区东部夏季降水的回报技巧较BCC-CPSv2预测技巧显著提高,空间相关系数由0.42提高到0.75,均方根误差明显减小,最多下降达80%。预测模型对降水空间分布型的预测能力较好,很好地回报了典型年份（1987年和2010年）夏季的降水距平百分率分布。通过抓住气象变量的空间分布特征,组合降尺度方法可以修正动力模式产品的预测误差,为西北地区东部夏季降水预测提供科学依据和技术支持,具有较好的应用前景。     

基于组合统计降尺度的华西南部地区冬季气温预测技术研究

利用1982—2017年华西南部地区冬季气温和NCEP再分析资料以及CFS模式实时预测资料,通过SVD诊断分析,选取影响华西南部地区冬季气温的同期关键区大气环流和前期海温及OLR因子场,建立预测与观测场相结合的组合统计降尺度预测模型。该统计降尺度预测模型对1982—2017年的回报结果显示：与观测场的空间相关系数较CFS模式原始预测结果有显著提高,多年均值从-0.06提升到0.38,最高可达0.85。同时,此降尺度预测模型可较好地回报出华西南区冬季气温的空间分布型。     

Evaluating the spatiotemporal variations of water budget across China over 1951–2006 using IBIS model

The Integrated Biosphere Simulator is used to evaluate the spatial and temporal patterns of the crucial hydrological variables [run‐off and actual evapotranspiration (AET)] of the water balance across China for the period 1951–2006 including a precipitation analysis. Results suggest three major findings. First, simulated run‐off captured 85% of the spatial variability and 80% of the temporal variability for 85 hydrological gauges across China. The mean relative errors were within 20% for 66% of the studied stations and within 30% for 86% of the stations. The Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients indicated that the quantity pattern of run‐off was also captured acceptably except for some watersheds in southwestern and northwestern China. The possible reasons for underestimation of run‐off in the Tibetan plateau include underestimation of precipitation and uncertainties in other meteorological data due to complex topography, and simplified representations of the soil depth attribute and snow processes in the model. Second, simulated AET matched reasonably with estimated values calculated as the residual of precipitation and run‐off for watersheds controlled by the hydrological gauges. Finally, trend analysis based on the Mann–Kendall method indicated that significant increasing and decreasing patterns in precipitation appeared in the northwest part of China and the Yellow River region, respectively. Significant increasing and decreasing trends in AET were detected in the Southwest region and the Yangtze River region, respectively. In addition, the Southwest region, northern China (including the Heilongjiang, Liaohe, and Haihe Basins), and the Yellow River Basin showed significant decreasing trends in run‐off, and the Zhemin hydrological region showed a significant increasing trend. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influences of coupled wind–water processes on suspended sediment grain size: an example from tributaries of the Yellow River / Influences de processus couplés éoliens-hydriques sur la granulométrie des matières en suspension: exemple d'affluents du Fleuve Jaune

Abstract

Some unique coupled wind–water erosion processes exist in the desert-loess transitional zone in the middle Yellow River basin. Based on data from 40 stations on 29 rivers, a study was made on the influence of such processes on suspended sediment grain-size characteristics of the tributaries of the Yellow River. Results show that the percentage of >0.05-mm grain size decreases with the increased annual mean precipitation, but increases with the increase in the annual mean number of sand-dust storm days. The percentage of <0.01-mm grain size increases with the increase in the annual mean precipitation, but decreases with the increase in the annual number of sand-dust storm days. Based on annual mean data from 40 stations, multiple regression equations were established between the percentages of >0.05-mm grain size (r _>0.05) and <0.01-mm grain size (r _<0.01), annual mean precipitation (P _m) and annual mean number of sand-dust storm days (D _ss). On this basis, the relative contributions of the variations in D _ss and P _m to the variation in r _>0.05 and r _<0.01 were estimated. The results indicate that the variation in sand-dust storm frequency exerts greater influences on the variation in grain-size characteristics of suspended load than does the variation in annual mean precipitation. With the increase in the coupled wind–water processes index, expressed by P _m/D _ss, the percentage of >0.05-mm grain size in suspended sediment decreases and the percentage of <0.01-mm grain size increases. With the variation in P _m/D _ss, different combinations of r _>0.05 with r _<0.01 appear, which have some influence on the formation of hyperconcentrated flows. There exist some optimal ratios of coarse to fine fractions in suspended sediment that make sediment concentrations of hyperconcentrated flows the highest. The optimal r _>0.05/r _<0.01 value is related to some range of the index P _m/D _ss. When the P _m/D _ss index falls in this range, the optimum combination of relative coarse with fine sediments in the suspended load appears, and thus results in the peak values of sediment concentration.     

Gas generation and expulsion characteristics of Middle–Upper Triassic source rocks,eastern Kuqa Depression,Tarim Basin,China: implications for shale gas resource potential

Frontier exploration in the Kuqa Depression, western China, has identified the continuous tight-sand gas accumulation in the Lower Cretaceous and Lower Jurassic as a major unconventional gas pool. However, assessment of the shale gas resource in the Kuqa Depression is new. The shale succession in the Middle–Upper Triassic comprises the Taliqike Formation (T₃t), the Huangshanjie Formation (T₃h) and the middle–upper Karamay Formation (T_2–3k), with an average accumulated thickness of 260 m. The high-quality shale is dominated by type III kerogen with high maturity and an average original total organic carbon (TOC) of about 2.68 wt%. An improved hydrocarbon generation and expulsion model was applied to this self-contained source–reservoir system to reveal the gas generation and expulsion (intensity, efficiency and volume) characteristics of Middle–Upper Triassic source rocks. The maximum volume of shale gas in the source rocks was obtained by determining the difference between generation and expulsion volumes. The results indicate that source rocks reached the hydrocarbon expulsion threshold of 1.1% VR and the hydrocarbon generation and expulsion reached their peak at 1.0% VR and 1.28% VR, with the maximum rate of 56 mg HC/0.1% TOC and 62.8 mg HC/0.1% TOC, respectively. The volumes of gas generation and expulsion from Middle–Upper Triassic source rocks were 12.02 × 10¹² m³ and 5.98 × 10¹² m³, respectively, with the residual volume of 6.04 × 10¹² m³, giving an average gas expulsion efficiency of 44.38% and retention efficiency of 55.62%. Based on the gas generation and expulsion characteristics, the predicted shale gas potential volume is 6.04 × 10¹² m³, indicating a significant shale gas resource in the Middle–Upper Triassic in the eastern Kuqa Depression.     

Hyperspectral feature analysis of chlorophyll a and suspended solids using field measurements from Taihu Lake,eastern China

Abstract

We report results of three field campaigns conducted at 39 stations. At each station, we measured reflectance spectra in situ and collected water samples for measuring chlorophyll a (CHL) and suspended solids (SS) concentrations in the laboratory. To identify the indicative bands and develop suitable estimation models for CHL (C _CHL) and SS (C _SS) concentrations in Taihu Lake, a spectral-feature method and a derivative method were applied. The following conclusions were drawn: (a) the critical C _CHL and C _SS probably causing their spectral variation are, respectively: 0, 10, 50 and 75 μg L^?1, and 0, 10, 50 and 100 mg L^?1; (b) the derivative method is better than the spectral-feature method for estimating C _CHL and C _SS; (c) the optimal variable for CHL is a reflectance second-order derivative at 501 nm or a reflectance first-order derivative at 698 nm; the optimal variable for SS can change when its concentration is low and the range is narrow; otherwise, the optimal variable is a reflectance first-order derivative at 878 nm; and (d) the CHL and SS have an effect on one another's retrieval. The C _CHL estimation accuracy would benefit from narrowing the C _SS range. With C _CHL increasing and its range broadening, the corresponding C _SS estimation accuracy decreases gradually.     

Rate and historical change of direct recharge from precipitation constrained by unsaturated zone profiles of chloride and oxygen‐18 in dry river bed of North China Plain

Quantifying of direct recharge derived from precipitation is crucial for assessing sustainability of well‐irrigated agriculture. In the North China Plain, the land use is dominated by groundwater‐irrigated farmland where the direct recharge derived from precipitation and irrigation. To characterize the mean rate and historical variance of direct recharge derived from precipitation, unsaturated zone profiles of chloride and δ¹⁸O in the dry river bed of the Beiyishui River were employed. The results show that archival time scale of the profile covers the duration from 1980 to 2002 (corresponding to depths from 5 to 2 m) which is indicated by matching the δ¹⁸O peaks in the isotope profile with the aridity indexes gained by instrumental records of annual precipitation and annual potential evaporation. Using the chloride mass balance method, the mean rate of the direct recharge corresponding to the archival time scale is estimated to be 3·8 ± 0·8 mm year^?1, which accounts for about 0·7% of the long‐term average annual precipitation. Further, the direct recharge rates vary from 2·1 to 6·8 mm year^?1 since 1980. Despite the subhumid climate, the estimate of recharge rates is in line with other findings in semiarid regions. The low rate of direct recharge is considered as a result of the relative dry climate in recent decades. In dry river bed, unsaturated zone profiles of chloride and δ¹⁸O combined with instrumental records could offer valuable information about the direct recharge derived from precipitation during droughts. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long‐term effects of revegetation on soil hydrological processes in vegetation‐stabilized desert ecosystems

Planting of sand‐binding vegetation in the Shapotou region on the southeastern edge of the Tengger Desert began in 1956. The revegetation programme successfully stabilized formerly mobile dunes in northern China, permitting the operation of the Baotou‐Lanzhou railway. Long‐term monitoring has shown that the revegetation programme produced various ecological changes, including the formation of biological soil crusts (BSCs). To gain insight into the role of BSCs in both past ecological change and current ecological evolution at the revegetation sites, we used field measurements and HYDRUS‐1D model simulations to investigate the effects of BSCs on soil hydrological processes at revegetated sites planted in 1956 and 1964 and at an unplanted mobile dune site. The results demonstrate that the formation of BSCs has altered patterns of soil water storage, increasing the moisture content near the surface (0–5 cm) while decreasing the moisture content in deeper layers (5–120 cm). Soil evaporation at BSC sites is elevated relative to unplanted sites during periods when canopy coverage is low. Rainfall infiltration was not affected by BSCs during the very dry period that was studied (30 April to 30 September 2005); during periods with higher rainfall intensity, differences in infiltration may be expected due to runoff at BSC sites. The simulated changes in soil moisture storage and hydrological processes are consistent with ongoing plant community succession at the revegetated sites, from deep‐rooted shrubs to more shallow‐rooted herbaceous species. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characterising deep vadose zone water movement and solute transport under typical irrigated cropland in the North China Plain

Understanding the dynamics and mechanisms of soil water movement and solute transport is essential for accurately estimating recharge rates and evaluating the impacts of agricultural activities on groundwater resources. In a thick vadose zone (0–15 m) under irrigated cropland in the piedmont region of the North China Plain, soil water content, matric potential, and solute concentrations were measured. Based on these data, the dynamics of soil water and solutes were analysed to investigate the mechanisms of soil water and solute transport. The study showed that the 0–15‐m vadose zone can be divided into three layers: an infiltration and evaporation layer (0–2 m), an unsteady infiltration layer (2–6 m), and a quasi‐steady infiltration layer (6–15 m). The chloride, nitrate, and sulphate concentrations all showed greater variations in the upper soil layer (0–1 m) compared to values in the deep vadose zone (below 2 m). The average concentrations of these three anions in the deep vadose zone varied insignificantly with depth and approached values of 125, 242, and 116 mg/L. The accumulated chloride, sulphate, and nitrate were 2,179 ± 113, 1,760 ± 383, and 4,074 ± 421 kg/ha, respectively. The soil water potential and solute concentrations indicated that uniform flow and preferential flow both occurred in the deep vadose zone, and uniform flow was the dominant mechanism of soil water movement in this study. The piston‐like flow velocity of solute transport was 1.14 m per year, and the average value of calculated leached nitrate nitrogen was 107 kg/ha?year below the root zone. The results can be used to better understand recharge processes and improve groundwater resources management.     

Effects of Drought on Winter Wheat Yield in North China During 2012-2100

Winter wheat is one of China's most important staple food crops, and its production is strongly influenced by weather, especially droughts. As a result, the impact of drought on the production of winter wheat is associated with the food security of China. Simulations of future climate for scenarios A2 and A1B provided by GFDL_CM2, MPI_ECHAM5, MRI_CGCM2, NCAR_CCSM3, and UKMO_HADCM3 during 2001- 2100 are used to project the influence of drought on winter wheat yields in North China. Winter wheat yields are simulated using the crop model WOFOST (WOrld FOod STudies). Future changes in temperature and precipitation are analyzed. Temperature is projected to increase by 3.9-5.5℃ ? for scenario A2 and by 2.9-5.1℃ ? for scenario A1B, with fairly large interannual variability. Mean precipitation during the growing season is projected to increase by 16.7 and 8.6 mm (10 yr)-1, with spring precipitation increasing by 9.3 and 4.8 mm (10 yr)-1 from 2012-2100 for scenarios A2 and A1B, respectively. For the next 10-30 years (2012- 2040), neither the growing season precipitation nor the spring precipitation over North China is projected to increase by either scenario. Assuming constant winter wheat varieties and agricultural practices, the influence of drought induced by short rain on winter wheat yields in North China is simulated using the WOFOST crop model. The drought index is projected to decrease by 9.7% according to scenario A2 and by 10.3% according to scenario A1B during 2012-2100. This indicates that the drought influence on winter wheat yields may be relieved over that period by projected increases in rain and temperature as well as changes in the growth stage of winter wheat. However, drought may be more severe in the near future, as indicated by the results for the next 10-30 years.