DEFORESTATION IN NORTHEAST THAILAND, 1975–91: RESULTS OF A GENERAL STATISTICAL MODEL

Using a general statistical model, this study attempts to characterise the trend of deforestation in the northeast region (Isan) of Thailand between 1975 and 1991, a period when the kingdom had sustained high rates of economic growth and steady increases in population. Using data obtained directly from government bodies on the 17 provinces comprising this heavily deforested region, the study examines the correlations between forest area and a set of six variables: population density, agricultural area, real per capita income, accumulated irrigated area, agricultural credit levels, and distance from Bangkok, the national political and economic centre. It also considers the effect of the two logging bans instituted in 1979 and since 1989. The study found a negative correlation between forest area and population density in particular, followed in ranking by agricultural credit, per capita income, the logging bans and distance from Bangkok. Viewed together with more recent data showing that rates of deforestation in the kingdom as a whole have slowed and appear to be stabilising, these results also suggest the beginnings in the 1990s of a forest transition – from an industrial to a post‐industrial stage in forest utilisation – in Thailand.     

Cultivation and human impact at 6000 cal yr B.P. in tropical lowland forest at Niah, Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo

This paper describes palynological evidence for what appears to be comparatively large-scale human impact in the catchment of the Sungai Niah in the wet tropical lowland swamp forests of Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo close to the Great Cave of Niah. Pollen associated with cleared landscapes and rice cultivation is evident in the sedimentary record from before 6000 cal yr B.P. Human activity seems to have been associated with changes in sedimentary regime, with peat-dominated environments being replaced diachronously by clay-dominated deposition. This may reflect anthropogenic soil erosion in the catchment of the Sungai Niah.     

岩土钻掘设备的液压步履机构

因液压步履移位最方便，辅助时间短，换向灵活，移位对孔准确，大型岩土钻掘设备施工的群孔现场实现近距离的自行迁移多采用液压步履机构。详细叙述了双向移动和单向移动加转向步履机构的结构和特点。     

空间运动对象与时空数据类型研究

当前时空数据模型多以描述空间实体的离散变化为主。该文中对空间运动对象在抽象层次的无限连续空间、离散层次的有限离散空间上的数据类型进行分析和定义，将其分别划分为时间类型、空间类型和时态类型来研究，并提出支持空间运动对象的表示方法和操作方式。该方法既能表示空间实体的连续运动，也能表示其离散变化，为空间运动对象时空数据模型的建立奠定了基础。     

Glacial flood pulse effects on benthic fauna in equatorial high‐Andean streams

Equatorial glacier‐fed streams present unique hydraulic patterns when compared to glacier‐fed observed in temperate regions as the main variability in discharge occurs on a daily basis. To assess how benthic fauna respond to these specific hydraulic conditions, we investigated the relationships between flow regime, hydraulic conditions (boundary Reynolds number, Re*), and macroinvertebrate communities (taxon richness and abundance) in a tropical glacier‐fed stream located in the high Ecuadorian Andes (> 4000 m). Both physical and biotic variables were measured under four discharge conditions (base‐flow and glacial flood pulses of various intensities), at 30 random points, in two sites whose hydraulic conditions were representative to those found in other streams of the study catchment. While daily glacial flood pulses significantly increased hydraulic stress in the benthic habitats (appearance of Re* > 2000), low stress areas still persisted even during extreme flood events (Re* < 500). In contrast to previous research in temperate glacier‐fed streams, taxon richness and abundance were not significantly affected by changes in hydraulic conditions induced by daily glacial flood pulses. However, we found that a few rare taxa, in particular rare ones, preferentially occurred in highly stressed hydraulic habitats. Monte‐Carlo simulations of benthic communities under glacial flood reduction scenarios predicted that taxon richness would be significantly reduced by the loss of high hydraulic stress habitats following glacier shrinking. This pioneer study on the relationship between hydraulic conditions and benthic diversity in an equatorial glacial stream evidenced unknown effects of climate change on singular yet endangered aquatic systems. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Salinity and periodic inundation controls on the soil‐plant‐atmosphere continuum of gray mangroves

Salinity and periodic inundation are both known to have a major role in shaping the ecohydrology of mangroves through their controls on water uptake, photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, gas exchanges, and nutrient availability. Salinity, in particular, can be considered one of the main abiotic regulating factors for halophytes and salt‐tolerant species, due to its influence on water use patterns and growth rate. Ecohydrological literature has rarely focused on the effects of salinity on plant transpiration, based on the fact that the terrestrial plants mostly thrive in low‐saline, unsaturated soils where the role of osmotic potential can be considered negligible. However, the effect of salinity cannot be neglected in the case of tidal species like mangroves, which have to cope with hyperosmotic conditions and waterlogging. We introduce here a first‐order ecohydrological model of the soil/plant‐atmosphere continuum of Avicennia marina—also known as gray mangrove—a highly salt‐tolerant pioneer species able to adapt to hyperarid intertidal zones and characterized by unique morphological and ecophysiological traits. The A. marina's soil‐plant‐atmosphere continuum takes explicitly into account the role of water head, osmotic water potential, and water salinity in governing plant water fluxes. A. marina's transpiration is thus modeled as a function of salinity based on a simple parameterization of salt exclusion mechanisms at the root level and a modified Jarvis' expression accounting for the effects of salinity on stomatal conductance. Consistently with previous studies investigating the physiology of mangroves in response to different environmental drivers, our results highlight the major influence of salinity on mangrove transpiration when contrasted with other potential stressors such as waterlogging and water stress.     

Three‐dimensional shakedown solutions for anisotropic cohesive‐frictional materials under moving surface loads

Previous work on three‐dimensional shakedown analysis of cohesive‐frictional materials under moving surface loads has been entirely for isotropic materials. As a result, the effects of anisotropy, both elastic and plastic, of soil and pavement materials are ignored. This paper will, for the first time, develop three‐dimensional shakedown solutions to allow for the variation of elastic and plastic material properties with direction. Melan's lower‐bound shakedown theorem is used to derive shakedown solutions. In particular, a generalised, anisotropic Mohr–Coulomb yield criterion and cross‐anisotropic elastic stress fields are utilised to develop anisotropic shakedown solutions. It is found that shakedown solutions for anisotropic materials are dominated by Young's modulus ratio for the cases of subsurface failure and by shear modulus ratio for the cases of surface failure. Plastic anisotropy is mainly controlled by material cohesion ratio, the rise of which increases the shakedown limit until a maximum value is reached. The anisotropic shakedown limit varies with frictional coefficient, and the peak value may not occur for the case of normal loading only. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Calibration of paired watersheds: Utility of moving sums in presence of externalities

Historically, paired watershed studies have been used to quantify the hydrological effects of land use and management practices by concurrently monitoring 2 similar watersheds during calibration (pretreatment) and post‐treatment periods. This study characterizes seasonal water table and flow response to rainfall during the calibration period and tests a change detection technique of moving sums of recursive residuals (MOSUM) to select calibration periods for each control–treatment watershed pair when the regression coefficients for daily water table elevation were most stable to minimize regression model uncertainty. The control and treatment watersheds were 1 watershed of 3–4‐year‐old intensely managed loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) with natural understory, 1 watershed of 3–4‐year‐old loblolly pine intercropped with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), 1 watershed of 14–15‐year‐old thinned loblolly pine with natural understory (control), and 1 watershed of switchgrass only. The study period spanned from 2009 to 2012. Silvicultural operational practices during this period acted as external factors, potentially shifting hydrologic calibration relationships between control and treatment watersheds. MOSUM results indicated significant changes in regression parameters due to silvicultural operations and were used to identify stable relationships for water table elevation. None of the calibration relationships developed using this method were significantly different from the classical calibration relationship based on published historical data. We attribute that to the similarity of historical and 2010–2012 leaf area index on control and treatment watersheds as moderated by the emergent vegetation. Although the MOSUM approach does not eliminate the need for true calibration data or replace the classic paired watershed approach, our results show that it may be an effective alternative approach when true data are unavailable, as it minimizes the impacts of external disturbances other than the treatment of interest.     

Tropical precipitation anomalies and d‐excess evolution during El Niño 2014‐16

The last 2014‐16 El Niño event was among the three strongest episodes on record. El Niño considerably changes annual and seasonal precipitation across the tropics. Here, we present a unique stable isotope data set of daily precipitation collected in Costa Rica prior to, during, and after El Niño 2014‐16, in combination with Lagrangian moisture source and precipitation anomaly diagnostics. δ²H composition ranged from ‐129.4 to +18.1 (‰) while δ¹⁸O ranged from ‐17.3 to +1.0 (‰). No significant difference was observed among δ¹⁸O (P=0.186) and δ²H (P=0.664) mean annual compositions. However, mean annual d‐excess showed a significant decreasing trend (from +13.3 to +8.7 ‰) (P<0.001) with values ranging from +26.6 to ‐13.9 ‰ prior to and during the El Niño evolution. The latter decrease in d‐excess can be partly explained by an enhanced moisture flux convergence across the southeastern Caribbean Sea coupled with moisture transport from northern South America by means of an increased Caribbean Low Level Jet regime. During 2014‐15, precipitation deficit across the Pacific domain averaged 46% resulting in a very severe drought; while a 94% precipitation surplus was observed in the Caribbean domain. Understanding these regional moisture transport mechanisms during a strong El Niño event may contribute to a) better understanding of precipitation anomalies in the tropics and b) re‐evaluate past stable isotope interpretations of ENSO events in paleoclimatic archives within the Central America region.     

Possible sources of forecast errors generated by the global/regional assimilation and prediction system for landfalling tropical cyclones. Part I: Initial uncertainties

This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone (TC) tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES). The GRAPES forecasts were made for 16 landfalling TCs in the western North Pacific basin during the 2008 and 2009 seasons, with a forecast length of 72 hours, and using the default initial conditions (“initials”, hereafter), which are from the NCEP-FNL dataset, as well as ECMWF initials. The forecasts are compared with ECMWF forecasts. The results show that in most TCs, the GRAPES forecasts are improved when using the ECMWF initials compared with the default initials. Compared with the ECMWF initials, the default initials produce lower intensity TCs and a lower intensity subtropical high, but a higher intensity South Asia high and monsoon trough, as well as a higher temperature but lower specific humidity at the TC center. Replacement of the geopotential height and wind fields with the ECMWF initials in and around the TC center at the initial time was found to be the most efficient way to improve the forecasts. In addition, TCs that showed the greatest improvement in forecast accuracy usually had the largest initial uncertainties in TC intensity and were usually in the intensifying phase. The results demonstrate the importance of the initial intensity for TC track forecasts made using GRAPES, and indicate the model is better in describing the intensifying phase than the decaying phase of TCs. Finally, the limit of the improvement indicates that the model error associated with GRAPES forecasts may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, further examinations of the model errors are required.