Verification of the motion fields over Southeast Asia by the Florida State University (FSU) superensemble forecast

The Florida State University (FSU) multimodel superensemble forecast is evaluated against several other operational weather models for the Southeast Asia region. The superensemble technique has demonstrated its exceptional skills in forecasting precipitation, motion and mass fields compared to either individual global operational or ensemble mean forecasts. The motion field investigation for the season of 2001 reveals that the superensemble forecasts are closer to the observed data compared to the other global member operational models through its low systematic errors at the 850 hPa level. The FSU multimodel superensemble forecasts exhibit the lowest root mean square errors (RSMEs), the highest correlation against the best observed data and the lowest systematic errors compared to the other operational model members. These forecasts have the potential to provide better daily weather predictions over the Southeast Asia region, particularly during the early northeast monsoon that often causes heavy rainfall in the equatorial part of the Southeast Asia region.     

湘东北中生代基性岩脉岩石地球化学及构造意义

湘东北中生代发育以辉绿岩类和煌斑岩类为代表的基性岩脉,属陆内拉斑玄武岩系,部分煌斑岩属于碱性系列。岩石富集LREE,δEu负异常不明显,其形成主要受软流圈地幔部分熔融作用制约。煌斑岩类微量元素总体上具有洋岛玄武岩(OIB)岩浆源区特征,富集Nd、P、Cs而K、Rb、Sr、U、Th等富集程度不明显,Ta、Nb略有富集。辉绿岩类表现出Ta、Nb、Ti亏损,但LILE并不富集,反映地壳混染程度的增强。基性岩脉形成于陆内拉张带的构造环境,岩浆活动未受到中生代大洋板块俯冲的影响。基性岩脉在时、空及物质组成上与湘东南玄武质岩石基本一致,属于整个湘东南岩石圈拉张-减薄带的一部分。     

多种驱动力作用下东亚大陆形变及应力场演化

将印度板块持续地向北推进、下伏地幔小尺度对流对增厚大陆岩石层的搬离作用以及剥蚀作用视为形成现今东亚大陆形变和应力场格局的主驱动力。在一梯形区域内，利用数值模拟的方法，研究了东亚大陆在不同的边界条件、不同的剥蚀率系数及不同的岩石力学参数条件下的形变及应力场格局。与现代空间大地测量技术 CGPS)以及利用地震观测得到的结果进行了对比。结果表明，本文模型预测的结果与上述的观测结果有较好的吻合，其西部地区比东部吻合得更好。说明控制东亚大陆西部形变和应力场基本格局的主驱动力，来源于印度板块对欧亚板块的碰撞、挤压，而对东部地区还应当考虑其与太平洋板块和菲律宾板块的相互作用。与此同时，下伏地幔小尺度对流对增厚大陆岩石层的搬离作用以及风化剥蚀对应力场的演化过程也不可忽视。      

The geography of water conflict and cooperation: internal pressures and international manifestations

Studies on transboundary water conflict and cooperation generally consider interstate relations over shared water resources as distinct from intrastate relations. While connections have been made between international water relations and regional relationships in general, it is conceivable that international water conflict and cooperation may also be influenced by domestic water events and vice versa. This paper seeks to investigate the dynamics of water interactions across geographic scale and their relationship to broader international affairs. The research approach involves the creation of an analytical framework for assessing possible linkages between external and internal interactions over freshwater resources. The framework is applied to three case studies – the Middle East, South Asia and Southern Africa – utilizing 'event data'. To validate the findings from the quantitative analyses, the results are compared with conventional qualitative understandings of water and overall relations in the three regions. The comparison demonstrates not only the efficacy of the analytical framework in general, but also highlights, at least in terms of the specific case studies selected, the disparate water dynamics across geographic regions and the importance of considering water events, both national and international, within larger political and historical contexts.     

Flexural subsidence by 29 Ma on the NE edge of Tibet from the magnetostratigraphy of Linxia Basin, China

This study provides a detailed magnetostratigraphic record of subsidence in the Linxia Basin, documenting a 27 Myr long sedimentary record from the northeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. Deposition in the Linxia Basin began at 29 Ma and continued nearly uninterruptedly until 1.7 Ma. Increasing rates of subsidence between 29 and 6 Ma in the Linxia Basin suggest deposition in the foredeep portion of a flexural basin and constrain the timing of shortening in the northeastern margin of the plateau to Late Oligocene–Late Miocene time. By Late Miocene–Early Pliocene time, a decrease in subsidence rates in the Linxia Basin associated with thrust faulting and a 10° clockwise rotation in the basin indicates that the deformation front of the Tibetan plateau had propagated into the currently deforming region northeast of the plateau.     

赣东北前震旦纪陆内叠加褶皱

江南古陆与华夏古陆拼接带北西侧前震旦纪地层中存在着近东西向褶皱叠加在早期近南北向褶皱上的现象,这是怀玉地块向西拼贴、华夏古陆向北西碰撞拼接过程中构造应力向陆内传递时形成的构造变形系统。叠加褶皱与拼接带具有成生联系,且各自代表了不同构造部位的变形特点。这一构造系统形成于前震旦纪,可能与格林威尔(Grenville)造山运动相当。     

东亚陆缘带构造扩张的深部热力学机制

近年来,我国地球科学家提出“陆缘构造扩张”观点,较好的解释了亚洲东部大陆边缘于新生代发生扩张离散运动的原因。本文基于“陆缘构造扩张”观点,探讨东亚陆缘带构造扩张的深部热力学机制。东亚陆缘带是具有强烈岩浆活动和构造变形的扩张带,此构造带的主要地球物理特征是频繁的地震活动和明显的地热异常。东亚陆缘扩张带地震层析成像显示,太平洋板块低角度俯冲到欧亚板块之下并平卧于670km相变界面之上。这种图像可能是俯冲后撤导致陆缘扩张的结果。热模拟及地球动力学计算表明:俯冲后撤时间距今约76Ma,海沟带后撤为陆缘壳体的生长留下空间,并形成东亚陆缘壳体增生扩展的前沿带,陆缘扩张量约700km。     

东亚冬季风的演变特征

文章主要讨论了东亚冬季风和冷涌的演变特征，并与南亚作了对比，发现在东亚地区，冬季风演变主要表现为10月中旬经向环流的突变及9月初、11月中旬和1月末对流层低层温度的3次突变；而在南亚地区，经向环流的变化不如东亚地区明显，而且高层要先于低层变化，对流层低层温度存在2次突变。在整个冬季，东亚地区冷涌的演变过程，主要表现为南海地区冷涌在12月份出现最高频率，而西太平洋冷涌在1月份出现最高频率；南亚地区冷涌在12月份出现最高频率，但远小于东亚地区且衰减速度很快。另一个不同点是东亚地区的冷涌强度是往上衰减的，而南亚地区的冷涌强度则是往上增强的。这说明东亚冬季风和南亚冬季风的性质有较大的区别。     

新疆地表水资源对亚洲中部未来气候变化的响应

在未来的亚洲中中气候变冷过程中，从咸海干涸海底和卡拉博加戈尔湾等等内陆湖泊和地区吹起的盐粒，农田排出的农药残余物，尘埃微粒等－固态大陆型气溶胶具有主要的作用。在这一过程中，环流及该区域的生物系统对气候的变化可能起着相反的影响。