Monsoon Change in East Asia in the 21st Century: Results of RegCM3

The authors investigate monsoon change in East Asia in the 21st century under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario using the results of a regional climate model, RegCM3, with a high horizontal resolution. First, the authors evaluate the model’s performance compared with NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, showing that the model can reliably reproduce the basic climatology of both winter and summer monsoons over East Asia. Next, it is found that the winter monsoon in East Asia would slightly weaken in the 21st century with spatial differences. Over northern East China, anomalous southerly winds would dominate in the mid-and late-21st century because the zonal land-sea thermal contrast is expected to become smaller, due to a stronger warming trend over land than over ocean. However, the intensity of the summer monsoon in East Asia shows a statistically significant upward trend over this century because the zonal land-sea thermal contrast between East Asia and the western North Pacific would become larger, which, in turn, would lead to larger sea level pressure gradients throughout East Asia and extending to the adjacent ocean.     

The Impact of Mid- and High-Latitude Rossby Wave Activities on the Medium-Range Evolution of the EAP Pattern During the Pre-Rainy Period of South China

Based on the NCEP DOE AMIP II daily reanalysis data (1979{2005), the evolution of the East Asia/Pacific(EAP) teleconnection pattern during the pre-rainy period of South China is studied on the medium-range time scale. It is found that positive and negative EAP patterns share a similar generation process. In the middle and upper troposphere, Rossby wave packets emanating from the northeast Atlantic or Europe propagate toward East Asia along the Eurasian continent waveguide and finally give rise to the three anomaly centers of the EAP pattern over East Asia. Among the three anomaly centers, the western Pacific subtropical center appears the latest. Rossby wave packets propagate from the high latitude anomaly center toward the mid-latitude and the subtropical ones. The enhancement and maintenance of the subtropical anomaly center is closely associated with the subtropical jet waveguide and the incoming Rossby wave packets from the upstream. In the lower troposphere, Rossby wave packets emanate from the subtropical Asia toward East Asia. Positive and negative EAP patterns could not be regarded as "mirrors" to each other with simply re- versed phase. For the positive pattern, the positive height anomaly center around the Scandinavia Peninsula keeps its strength and position during the mature period, and the Rossby wave packets thus propagate persistently toward East Asia, facilitating a longer mature time of the positive pattern. As for the formation of the negative EAP pattern, however, the incoming Rossby wave energy from the upstream contributes to both the enhancement and southeastward movement of the negative anomaly belt from the Yenisei River to the Bering Strait and the positive anomaly center around Mongolia. At the peak time, the two anomlous circulations are evolved into the Northeast Asia and the mid-latitude anomaly centers of the negative pattern, respectively. The energy dispersion of Rossby wave packets is relatively fast due to the predominant zonal circulation in the extratropics, causing a shorter mature period of the negative pattern. During the pre-rainy period of South China, the prevalence of the EAP pattern signiˉcantly affects the rainfall over the region south of the Yangtze River. The positive (negative) EAP pattern tends to causepositive (negative) precipitation anomalies in that region. This is di?erent from the earlier research findingsbased on monthly mean data.     

东亚地区夏季水汽输送特征

利用1950—2002年NCEP/NCAR再分析逐日平均资料,计算全球格点整层水汽输送通量,分析东亚地区夏季水汽输送在推进过程中逐候的气候特征。研究发现：第25—44候是水汽输送变化最为明显的时段,也是水汽输送的集中期;东亚地区各个经度带的偏南风水汽输送在出现时间、北抬进程速度、北界位置、南撤速度等方面均表现出不同的特征;副高边缘的东南风水汽输送具有迂回西扩和快速东撤的特点,并且在强盛期能够到达青藏高原的东南部。     

2007年淮河流域暴雨期间大气环流特征分析

利用NCAR/NCEP再分析资料及国家气象信息中心30年气候平均降水资料,通过动力诊断与分析手段研究了2007年6—7月发生在我国淮河流域的暴雨。结果表明,淮河流域的环流垂直结构和降水有着非常好的对应关系。暴雨期间,鄂霍茨克海阻高与乌拉尔山阻高这种双阻高形势对于淮河流域的持续降水提供了很好的条件;南亚高压高层(200 hPa)基本为正散度区,低层(850 hPa)为负散度区,上下层强烈的抽吸结构对暴雨的发生也是非常有利的条件,同时,在淮河暴雨期问,南亚高压(200 hPa)与500 hPa西太平洋副热带高压有着相向而行的移动路径;位涡对于分析冷空气的活动,有着比较清晰的意义,暴雨发生前,有明显的正位涡异常从高纬度向低纬度伸展。大气非绝热加热分析结果显示,视热源和视水汽汇两者的高值中心与相应时段暴雨中心位置一致。     

近60年来渤海海域波候变化及其与东亚环流的联系

研究海洋的波候变化是了解海洋动力过程对气候变迁响应的关键。渤海所处特殊的地理位置,使其波候在长期风场变化影响下存在阶段性变化特征。文章采用1950~2011年NCEP再分析资料中的渤海海域10 m风场资料,利用SWAN模式模拟逐月渤海波浪的有效波高、波向、波周期,分析该海区波候的变化特征。分析结果显示:1950~2011年期间渤海海域的有效波高呈现下降的趋势;波向角度均呈现上升的趋势,波周期相对平稳,略有上升;有效波高平均下降0.3 cm/a,波向角度平均增加0.12°/a。有效波高在1968年前后显现突变点,波向角度约在1960年突变,波周期在1965年左右出现突变点。渤海波候变化与海气振荡密切相关,是大尺度的大气环流变异导致的结果,长期气候变化背景下,东亚环流天气系统的长期变化(包括东亚季风强度、夏季风北界的移动,西太平洋副热带高压面积与强度的变化、脊点位置西伸与北进,以及西风指数的强弱变化等),是影响和控制渤海海域波气长期变化的主要原因。     

不同分辨率BCC_AGCM模式对东亚区域垂直云量的模拟

基于ISCCP(International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project)和NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction)资料分析了BCC_AGCM2.1(Beijing Climate Center_Atmospheric General Circulation Model 2.1)和BCC_AGCM2.2模拟的云在东亚的垂直分布特点,并探讨了误差来源。两个模式大体上模拟出了总云量的分布形势,较好地模拟出了垂直方向上云量大值带随地形的变化特点,但模拟的总云量偏少。AGCM2.2模拟的云量整体上小于AGCM2.1,除复杂地形外AGCM2.2没有体现出高分辨率的优势。模式对中国东部环流场的模拟效果差导致模拟的云量偏少,尤其是AGCM2.2。模拟的对流层高层相对湿度明显偏大导致高层云量偏大。模式在近海面模拟的相对湿度偏小,四川盆地及周围地区冷季模拟的水汽含量偏少,因而模拟的云量偏少。模式云量对相对湿度的响应能力较好,模拟出了云量对垂直速度和稳定度的响应,但地区差异不明显。模式的云参数化方案中云与相对湿度的关系系数需要调整,应更利于云的生成。     

ANALYSIS OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF SUSTAINED TORRENTIAL RAINS IN JUNES DURING 1958-2000

Day-to-day precipitation data of Junes during the 43 years of 1958-2000 from stations to the south of Yangtze River are used to divide regions and run statistical analysis of sustained torrential rainfall processes. A preliminary analysis is then made based on it and the results show that June is the month in which torrential rains in the southern half of China take place frequently and sustained torrential rains occur at the same time in South China and the area to the south of Yangtze River. In addition, the analysis gives the basic features of sustained torrential rains of June in China and their interannual variability patterns, with the suggestion that the amount of these events increases significantly after the 1990s. Lastly, the sustained torrential rains occurring in Junes of 1994, 1998 and 2005 in the southern half of China are taken as examples in the research on the basic patterns and formation mechanisms of the evolution of double rain-bands during the rain season in South China and the area to the south of Yangtze River. The analysis shows that the large scale environment field in which sustained torrential rains occur is related to the stable sustaining of the South Asia High and upper level jet streams.     

胶州湾东北部海域生态环境污染状况研究

根据2004年5月和2005年5月两次对胶州湾东北部海域海水的盐度、pH、溶解氧、化学需氧量、无机氮、活性磷酸盐、铜、铅、锌、镉、多环芳烃和有机氯农药以及表层沉积物中有机碳、石油烃、硫化物、铜、铅、镉、汞、多环芳烃和有机氯农药测定结果,并结合2001年以来历史资料,对胶州湾东北部海域生态环境质量历史变化趋势进行了分析,该海域生态环境中除个别要素如活性磷酸盐、铅、镉、汞等重金属含量有所增加外,其他污染要素含量相对稳定且有下降趋势,2001—2005年该海域生态环境质量相对稳定,仅部分要素有加重趋势。     

Multiple newt threats – occurrence of Paramesotriton deloustali and P. guangxiensis in differently disturbed habitats in Vietnam including new data on the parasite-host relationships with water mites

In this study we present the results from field work in northern Vietnam regarding the occurrence of the warty newt species Paramesotriton deloustali and P. guangxiensis in disturbed and undisturbed habitats and the presence of parasitic water mites of the genus Hygrobates (sg. Lurchibates) (Acari, Hydrachnidia). We report the first evidence of mite parasitism in P. guangxiensis and analyze differences in the infestation rates between both Paramesotriton species and habitat qualities. Furthermore we present the first indication of the detrimental effects of these parasite-host interactions.Our preliminary assessment seems to support the sensitivity of P. guangxiensis to habitat disturbances, as the average number of captured newts per stream was twice as high in undisturbed habitats as in disturbed ones.Until now a very specific parasite-host association was supposed between water mite and newt species. However, our results show the first evidence of a water mite species of the subgenus Lurchibates (Hygrobates forcipifer) parasitizing more than one host species, in this case not only P. deloustali (already known) but also P. guangxiensis (new record). The overall infestation rate was 27 % for P. deloustali and 71 % for P. guangxiensis, from which 100 % and 77 % of the mite-incidence occurred in undisturbed habitats, respectively. Furthermore the parasite load of the newts was clearly higher in prime quality streams: the parasite load in undisturbed habitats was very similar between P. deloustali (19.64 mites per newt) and P. guangxiensis (20.13 mites per newt), however it was significantly lower for P. guangxiensis in disturbed habitats (8.86 mites per newt). Future research should bring more detail on these parasite host associations, especially on the effect of parasitism on the newts. Warty newts are already threatened due to their shrinking natural habitat and overharvesting. We report the first concerns that mite parasitism might be a critical additional stress factor in undisturbed habitats.     

下三叠统鲕粒灰岩中微生物矿化组构特征及意义 ——以川东北地区飞仙关组为例

PTB全球最大生物灭绝事件后,早三叠世被认为是微生物发育繁殖的黄金时期,浅水环境是微生物活动及微生物岩形成的最有利环境。借助高分辨率扫描电镜和能谱分析,在川东北地区开江—梁平海槽西侧下三叠统飞仙关组浅水碳酸盐岩台地边缘的鲕粒灰岩中发现了三种微生物矿化组构:空腔状微生物矿化组构、显微瘤状微生物矿化组构和纤状微生物矿化组构;通过沉积学、岩石学及地球化学的综合分析,认为显微瘤状微生物矿化组构是微生物新陈代谢时形成的纳米球状云质颗粒,纤状微生物矿化组构是微生物的胞外聚合物,而空腔状微生物矿化组构则属于微生物个体。这些微生物矿化组构的发现,为早三叠世微生物大爆发提供了一定的直观证据;推测大量的微生物活动是早三叠世碳酸盐快速沉积现象的直接诱因,并导致于二叠纪末发育的克拉通内裂陷——开江—梁平海槽在早三叠世被快速填平。