地倾斜前兆异常的模糊分析

本文用隶属函数和模糊聚类分析对泰安台和佘山台地倾斜矢量形变异常序列和当地地震序列进行统计研究,计算分析结果对于在统计范围内判别有无地震发生以及估计将会发生的地震震级大小,得到了预期的结果。     

Assessment of reliability in water distribution networks using entropy based measures

Entropy based expressions for measurement of reliability and redundancy have recently been reported. These measures approach assessment of the reliability of the distribution network from the intrinsic redundancy of the network layout. The paper extends earlier work on entropy functions by including a more explicit statement of the alternate paths available in the network and by recognizing that under certain circumstances, e.g., failure of some part of the network work, an outflow link from a node under normal working condition may become an inflow link to the same node. The measures are assessed by comparison with parameters measuring Nodal Pair Reliability and percentage of flow supplied at adequate pressure for a range of networks and link failure conditions in this networks. The entropy measures are shown to reflect changes in the network reliability, as measured by these two comparative parameters, very well.     

On the distribution of flood volume in partial duration series analysis of flood phenomena

A methodology based on the theory of stochastic processes is applied to the analysis of floods. The approach will be based on some results of the theory of extreme values over a threshold. In this paper, we focus on the estimation of the distribution of the flood volume in partial duration series analysis of flood phenomena, by using a bivariate exponential distribution of discharge exceedances and durations over a base level.     

An examination of the use of the logratio transformation for the testing of endmember hypotheses

Given a compositional dataset in the absence of any prior information on any mixing process which may have formed it, a complete analysis of mixtures determines three distinct types of estimates in order. These are: (i) the estimate of the number of endmembers or fixed source compositions, of which all the sample compositions of the dataset must be approximate mixtures; (ii) the estimated compositions for each of these chosen number of endmembers; and (iii) the estimated contributions of each of these endmember estimates to each sample. Traditionally, the estimate for the number of endmembers has been assessed either by mapping or by inspection of the coefficients of determination between the observed and estimated variables. Mapping entails the plotting on a map of the region from which the samples were taken, either the contours of the contributions of each endmember to each sample, or some other portrayal of the distribution of endmember abundances. Because it requires the complete analysis, assessment by this method is too elaborate except for final confirmation and display. Alternatively, choosing a number of endmembers, which result in suitability high coefficients of determination for all or most variables, may account for elements which are not part of the conjectured mixing process or, worse, may result in the identification of endmembers which may never in fact have existed. Such an error is similar to overspecifying a multiple regression model. So, the obvious starting point from which to assess the validity, or otherwise choice of endmember numbers, is to examine the matrix of residuals. The differences between the logratio-transformed observed and estimated data form an array of residual logratios. A linear combination of these may be formed for each sample, which, under a random perturbation assumption, should follow a univariate normal distribution. Whether or not this scalar is normal can be readily tested. It can also be examined graphically for such desirable qualities as symmetry when the test for normality may be too severe. This procedure is employed to assess the decompositions of the U.S.G.S. Mid-Pacific data and the Nazca Plate Surface sediments.This paper was presented at the 18th Geochautauqua, Newark, Delaware, 13–14 October 1989.     

The first and the second e of the extreme value distribution,EV1

In the peak over threshold model resulting in the Extreme-value distribution, type I, (EV1) the firste of the distribution function is based on the Poisson number of exceedances, and the seconde arises from the Exponentially distributed magnitudes.This paper, on the one hand, generalises the Poisson model to the (positive and negative) Binomial distribution, and, on the other hand, the Exponential distribution is generalised to the Generalised Pareto distribution. Lack of fit with respect to the Poisson and Exponential distribution is measured by statistics derived from those which would be locally most powerful if the estimates of the location and scale parameter were equal to the true parameter values. Ways of combining both statistics are discussed.     

1988年11月6日澜沧—耿马地震的水氡异常

本文研究了1988年11月6日澜沧、耿马7.6和7.2级地震的水氡异常,认为:1.震前中期、短期及临震各阶段异常均有显示;2.中期异常是趋势性上升的高值异常,它占全部异常的比例,与国内其它几次7级地震相比较略偏低;3.短期异常中有高值和低值异常,位于震中区及北西向腾冲-耿马地震带上的水氡观测点,以氡浓度降低的负异常为主要特征;4.震中周围300公里内未发现临震异常,它多出现在300—500公里范围内,特别集中在小江断裂带上。     

Entropy estimation of hydrological extremes

The method of Relative Entropy with Fractile constraints (REF method) is explained and applied to model extreme compound hydrological phenomena, such as extreme sea levels under storm conditions. Also presented is a simple method of Tail Entropy Approximation (TEA), which amounts to a correction of traditional statistical estimates for extreme observations.Distribution assumptions are necessary but downplayed in the REF method, relegating the prior distribution to the role of an extrapolation function. The estimates are objective in an information-theoretical sense. They also satisfy a strict requirement of self-consistency that is generally not satisfied by standard statistical methods: invariance under monotonic transformations of the random variable.Historical records of storm surge levels in the Netherlands and annual maximum tidal heights for Sheerness, UK, are used as examples. Comparison is made with distributions obtained using other methods.It is concluded that the tail entropy approximation provides simple, objective estimates of extremes in the tail beyond the range of observations.     

机载合成孔径雷达图像频谱分析技术地质应用评价

频谱分析是空间滤波的一种。本文使用光学傅里叶变换分析SAR图像的空间频率特征。从取得的功率谱与功率谱角分布数据中可以:(1)确定与雷达后向散射方向有关面的走向最大(最小)方位角;(2)分析频谱曲线两个峰的夹角及其地学意义;(3)推算其水系密度;(4)研究样区地形基本特征。 这些资料有助于研究线性构造区域展布特征,岩类识别和地貌分类等。