Estimation of Land Subsidence Based on Groundwater Flow Model

This article presents an approach for estimating land subsidence due to withdrawal of groundwater. The proposed method calculates the groundwater seepage in 3-D-condition and calculates the land subsidence one-dimensionally. The governing equation on groundwater seepage is based on the three-dimensional mass conservation law and the principle of effective stress. The land subsidence calculation method is derived based on the following assumptions: (1) displacements occur only in the vertical direction, and (2) in vertical direction the total stresses do not change. The governing equation is solved by numerical method, i.e., finite element method (FEM) in spatial discretization and finite difference method (FDM) in time series discretization. In FEM Galerkin method is adopted and in FDM, lumped matrix method is employed. The proposed method is calibrated via analyzing 1-D consolidation problem and the results are compared with those from Terzaghi's one-dimensional consolidation theory and oedometer test. The proposed method is employed to analyze the consolidation of a soft layer due to withdrawal of groundwater from an aquifer under it. Moreover, this method is also applied to a field case of land subsidence due to groundwater pumping in a gas production field in Japan. The analytical results are compared with the field observed data. The results show that this approach simulates the field case well.     

采油平台淘空防护措施的试验研究

通过室内试验,研究了采油平台的冲淘机理和防护措施,对仿生海底、仿生林、抛石块、抛石子袋等防冲淘措施进行了方案设计和试验,完成了导管架式、桶形基础式、沉垫式3种采油平台的冲淘及防护措施试验研究,提出和完善了多层次抛石防护技术,并将研究成果成功应用于海上防护工程.提出的研究思路以及得到的研究成果,对解决胜利油田海区粉土地基的防冲淘难题具有重要指导意义.     

FPSO甲板上浪研究现状

浮式生产储油轮（FPSO）是当今海洋石油开发的主流设施。FPSO通常采用单点系泊系统,船首暴露在波浪作用下,定位于特定海域进行长达数年的长期作业,上浪的风险很大。甲板上浪及其产生的载荷已是当前国际FPSO工程和研究领域的热点之一。介绍了国内外在试验研究和理论研究两方面对FPSO甲板上浪研究的进展情况,并建议我国开展这方面的研究。     

Centrifugal test of a road embankment built after new dredger fill on thick marine clay

Abstract

The construction of a 100-km road network is planned on a land reclamation area in the Oujiang Estuary in China. The embankment had a height of 4 m and a base width of 60 m. The reclamation area is newly filled by a 3-m dredger fill on a 48-m thick layer of marine clay. Estimation of the settlement of the future road network is difficult. To guide the construction of the road network, a 1/100-scale centrifuge model test was performed with a marine clay sample from the construction site to simulate the layered settlements and evaluate the drainage effect of prefabricated vertical drains in the dredger fill in the following 10 years. The results of the centrifuge modeling test are verified by 10-month in situ monitoring, which shows agreement between the centrifuge modeling test results and the in situ results. The test results indicate that additional time is needed to reinforce the newly added dredger fill by the surcharge preloading method to uplift the elevation of the reclamation area with dredger fill.     

Unified numerical study of shallow foundation on structured soft clay under unconsolidated and consolidated-undrained loadings

Abstract

Based on a new elasto-plastic constitutive model, this paper presents a soil–water coupled numerical prediction of the bearing capacity for shallow foundation constructed on Ballina soft clay for unconsolidated undrained (UU) and consolidated undrained (CU) conditions. This elasto-plastic constitutive Shanghai model has an advantage of describing the mechanical behaviour of over-consolidated and structured soil under different loading and drainage conditions, by using one set of material parameter. In this paper, the Shanghai model used for both UU and CU conditions has the same initial parameters obtained from laboratory test results. The loading conditions and consolidation stages vary based on construction details. The predicted bearing pressure-settlement responses for UU and CU, approves the field observation. The phenomenon of gaining the bearing capacity due to consolidation is captured and explained by the use of soil–water coupled numerical analysis with a new elasto-plastic model. The stress strain behaviour, stress paths and the decay of the structure of elements at different depths presented in this study, reveal the mechanism for the difference between UU and CU conditions to understand the foundation behaviour. Effect of the initial degree of soil structure on the bearing capacity is also addressed. Overall, this approach provides the integrated solution for the shallow foundation design problems under short and long-term loadings.     

南黄海浮游植物季节性变化的数值模拟与影响因子分析

用三维物理-生物耦合模式研究南黄海浮游植物(以叶绿素a为指标)的季节变化.对于物理模式采用Princeton ocean model(POM),对于生物模式考虑溶解无机营养盐(氮、磷、硅)、浮游植物、食草性浮游动物和碎屑.给定已知的初始场和外加边界强迫,模拟了观测到叶绿素a的主要时、空分布特征,如浮游植物的春、秋季水华和夏季次表层叶绿素a极大值现象等.研究表明,浮游植物春季水华最先发生于黄海中央海域,主要原因是该海域透明度较高,流速较小.春季水华开始于垂直对流减弱和层化开始形成之前(约3月底至4月上旬),显著地依赖水层的稳定性.水体层化以后(约5～9月)叶绿素a浓度高值区分布在南黄海的南部和锋区.夏季的南黄海中央海域,由于上混合层营养盐几乎耗尽,限制了浮游植物的生长,在紧贴温跃层下部的真光层,具有丰富的营养盐和合适的光照,次表层叶绿素a极大值得以形成.秋季(约9～11月份,略迟于海表面开始降温的时间,随地点不同而异)随垂直混合的增强,有利于营养盐向上输运,浮游植物出现一次较小的峰值.     

Monte-Carlo模拟与经验路径模型预测台风极值风速的对比

台风是我国东南沿海区域每年发生的严重自然灾害之一。本文分别采用传统的Monte-Carlo模拟方法以及较为先进的经验路径模拟方法预测中国东南沿海区域台风的极值风速(10 m高度处10 min平均值),并对两种方法的预测结果进行了对比。本文将东南海岸线向内陆扩展约200 km的区域划分为0.25°×0.25°的网格,以每个网格点作为研究点。首先采用Monte-Carlo模拟方法产生每个研究点1 000年间的虚拟台风事件。然后采用经验路径模型方法构建了西北太平洋1 000年的热带气旋事件集,采用模拟圆方法从中提取对各个研究站点有影响的台风事件。接着采用Yan Meng风场模型计算每个研究点台风的最大风速,构成极值风速序列。最后采用极值分布模型预测每个研究点不同重现期的极值风速,并对两种不同方法预测的结果进行了对比。研究发现在研究区域的内陆侧经验路径方法预测的风速略高于Monte-Carlo模拟方法预测的结果,而在海岸沿线一带经验路径方法预测的结果略低,这主要是由两种方法构造的虚拟台风的中心压强存在差异以及模型本身的不确定性造成的。本文的研究结果可以为防灾减灾系统提供有益的参考。     

中国沿海小黄鱼种群动力学及其空间异质性研究

小黄鱼是我国近海四种最重要的经济鱼类之一,在过去的几十年中小黄鱼种群及其两个地理亚种群经历了巨大的变化。小黄鱼的种群动力学研究,对于维持这一重要渔业的可持续管理是至关重要的。目前仅有的两个小黄鱼种群动力学模型只涵盖了较短的时间,且没有关注其空间差异。本文研究了1968年至2015年间黄渤海和东海小黄鱼的种群动力学模型,包含和不包含空间分层结构的两种贝叶斯模型被用于分析其种群动力学的大尺度空间异质性。本文分析了不同的假设,来研究小黄鱼种群动力学潜在的变化趋势。研究结果表明小黄鱼种群动力学特征具有明显的时间和空间变化。种群的增长速度从20世纪八十年代开始增加,而可捕系数从1981年到2015年增加了两倍多。与黄渤海亚种群相比,东海的小黄鱼亚种群生长速度更快,遭受的捕捞压力也更大。基于最大可持续产量MSY的参考点表明,无论是整个小黄鱼种群还是两个亚种群,近年来都有非常高的过度捕捞风险。因此我国小黄鱼的渔业管理急需更加保守的管理策略,同时考虑其地域差异。本文所用的方法可以应用于其他种类的资源评估和渔业管理,尤其是具有空间异质性和数据有限的种类。     

非线性中立型时滞微分方程解的振动性

本文研究几类非线性中立型时滞微分方程解的振动性质 ,利用 Riccati不等式和某个不等式得到了保证方程振动的充分条件     

增长曲线模型中线性估计类所有可容许估计

对增长曲线模型中回归矩阵的函数的线性估计进行了研究。在矩阵损失下 ,作者得到了线性估计在一切线性估计类中可容许的充要条件