多变量分位数回归构建印度洋大眼金枪鱼栖息地指数

以0～300m水层加权平均水温、50～150m水层的温差和氧差及其交互变量为影响因子,运用分位数回归法,寻找出环境变量与大眼金枪鱼(Thunnus obesus)延绳钓钓获率的最佳上界分位数回归方程,计算出栖息地指数(HSI),并应用地理信息系统(GIS)软件绘制各月HSI空间分布图。研究表明:大眼金枪鱼延绳钓钓获率(HR)依加权平均水温(x)、温差(y)、氧差(z)与的最佳上界分位数回归方程为HR0.70=-15.596+2.124x-0.003x3+0.033xyz-0.036y2z+0.107yz2-0.337z3;HSI空间分布为:16°S—10°N印度洋海域HSI高于0.7,HSI>0.8的海域随季节发生显著变化,马达加斯加外海至100°E、16°S—26°S海域常年存在一片HSI<0.4的区域,26°S—40°S海域的HSI介于0.4～0.5,40°S以南海域HSI<0.4,东非外海季节性地出现一片HSI<0.6的海域。利用多个环境变量的栖息地指数模型来预测分析大洋金枪鱼资源分布效果较好。     

近50年气候变化对滦河上游径流的影响

为了解近50年滦河上游气温和降水气候的变化特征、趋势及其对该流域径流量的影响,利用1956-2009年滦河上游的实测气温、降水量和径流深资料,分析了该流域气温、降水和径流深的年均和季度变化的时间序列,并建立了该流域气候变化对径流影响的复相关回归模型。结果表明,年径流深随着年降水量的减少而减少,随着年平均气温的升高而减少;春、夏和秋季的径流深随着同期降水量和气温的变化趋势与年际变化趋势基本一致,但冬季径流深则相反,而且其变化幅度非常小。     

塔河油气田AT1区块凝析气藏三维地质建模研究

以随机函数理论为基础,采用相控-多参数协同的随机建模方法,建立塔河油气田AT1区块凝析气藏三维地质模型,实现气藏精细三维表征。首先,以钻井和岩芯资料为基础构建储层构造模型;然后,以小层界面为控制条件建立储层结构模型;接着,在沉积相、地质条件的约束下,采用序贯指示模拟法来建立砂体骨架模型;随后,在砂体骨架模型内进行优势相计算,形成最终有效砂体骨架模型;最后,以有效砂体骨架模型为约束,采用序贯高斯模拟法建立储层物性参数模型。结果表明：将物性参数变量与微相分布结合的序贯高斯模拟法建立孔隙度等物性参数的分布模型,以及采用地质分析类比、地质统计分析等方法优选最佳模型是有效的地质建模方法;所建地质模型精确细致地表征了塔河油气田AT1区块凝析气藏构造格架及储层、流体三维分布,反映了辫状水道复合连片,东北向展布,储层物性受相控较明显,非均质性较强。     

基于地貌单元的小区域地质灾害易发性分区方法研究

以汶川县城周边区域为研究区,分别以栅格单元与地貌单元作为单位评价单元,以信息量法与逻辑回归法两种评价模型对研究区进行地质灾害易发性评价分区。根据对评价结果的比较分析,在小区域范围内,基于地貌单元的区域易发性分区不仅仅能够更好地体现出区域内局部综合特性,而且评价分区结果与地质灾害实际分布情况更加吻合,分级层次更加明显,数学模型的适用效率很好。由此可见,在小范围区域内,基于地貌单元的地质灾害易发性评价分区具有良好的适用性与可塑性,在大比例尺地质灾害易发性和危险性制图中是一个有益的尝试与启发。     

Susceptibility assessment of earthquake-triggered landslides in El Salvador using logistic regression

This work has evaluated the probability of earthquake-triggered landslide occurrence in the whole of El Salvador, with a Geographic Information System (GIS) and a logistic regression model. Slope gradient, elevation, aspect, mean annual precipitation, lithology, land use, and terrain roughness are the predictor variables used to determine the dependent variable of occurrence or non-occurrence of landslides within an individual grid cell. The results illustrate the importance of terrain roughness and soil type as key factors within the model — using only these two variables the analysis returned a significance level of 89.4%. The results obtained from the model within the GIS were then used to produce a map of relative landslide susceptibility.     

第三系砂岩波速特性探讨及统计分析

波速测试技术作为一种简便、快捷的测试技术被广泛应用于各种工程实践中, 第三系砂岩是非常具有代表性的软岩, 对第三系砂岩波速测试的研究具有重要意义。本文以吉阳核电厂址的第三系砂岩为研究对象, 通过整理单孔波速、跨孔波速方法获得的参数, 分析半成岩岩体波速的空间分布规律及特性, 寻找波速与埋深深度、标贯动探参数之间的关系。结果表明单孔、跨孔波速测试波速值随深度增加而增加, 埋深5m以上增加幅度明显, 埋深5m以下增加趋势减缓, 平面上不同位置各孔的波速值基本一致, 说明第三系半成砂岩岩体分布较均匀。剪切波速与埋置深度线性回归拟合效果较好, 对数拟合优度在0.95以上, 精度最高, 相对可靠, 剪切波速与标贯击数之间相关性不明显, 与动探击数之间基本不相关。     

我国断层气测量在地震科学研究中的应用现状

氢气被认为是反应断裂活动最灵敏的地球化学组分之一。研究影响断裂带氢浓度动态变化的主要因素,是科学分析断裂带氢与构造活动关系的基础工作。本文基于河南内乡马山口断层气氢气浓度与辅助测项的连续观测资料,重点分析了氢浓度变化与地温、气温、气压的相关关系,确定了主要影响因素。结果表明,氢气浓度日变化极值介于气温和地温之间,极值点靠近地温一侧。使用逐步回归方法分析进一步证明,地温、温度对氢气浓度均有影响,但地温影响更显著,气压影响不显著。总体来讲,氢浓度会受到地温和气温的双重影响,但与地温关系更为密切。     

基于高斯混合模型的海冰图像非监督聚类分割研究

为了利用海冰图像识别技术获取海冰冰况信息, 探索了利用高斯混合模型进行海冰图像分割的技术途径, 描述了具体算法, 并利用高斯混合模型的最大期望值（EM）算法以及最小描述长度（MDL）准则对渤海海冰图像进行目标提取。研究结果表明, 该方法可以很好地实现海冰信息的有效提取和海冰图像的有效分割, 从而证明了建立在图像分割技术...     

The statistical distribution of nearbed wave orbital velocity in intermediate coastal water depth

The statistical distribution of wave orbital velocity in intermediate coastal water depth has been quantitatively determined from the comprehensive field velocity data collected near the seabed in this study. Two ocean ADV current meters, which were mounted at 0.5 m above the seabed on two separate stainless steel tripods sitting on the seabed, were used to measure instantaneous water particle velocities at a 2 Hz sampling rate for 17.07 min every hour in two coastal water depths of 11 m and 23 m in nine field deployments over a period of 2 years. The zero-crossing method is applied to analyse the field velocity data collected in each field deployment to obtain a large sample of wave orbital velocity amplitudes of individual waves. Based on the collected field velocity data, it is found that the histogram of instantaneous wave orbital velocities perfectly follows the Gaussian distribution as commonly assumed, while the histogram of wave orbital velocity amplitudes is less accurately described by the Rayleigh distribution than the modified Rayleigh and the Weibull distribution. It is also found that large orbital velocity amplitudes are generally overestimated by the Rayleigh distribution, but well predicted by the modified Rayleigh and the Weibull distribution. The expected value of maximum orbital velocity in a velocity record of finite size is also derived from the three distributions and found to agree well with the present field data.     

Skeletal linear extension rates of the foliose scleractinian coral Merulina ampliata (Ellis & Solander, 1786) in a turbid environment

Skeletal linear extension rates of a foliaceous, IndoPacific, skiophilous, heterotrophic, scleractinian Merulina ampliata (Ellis & Solander 1786) were obtained along a sediment/nutrient load gradient at the southern islands of Singapore. Measurements were made during November 1999– November 2000 using the alizarin red‐S staining technique. Suspended particulate matter concentration (r²_adj = 0.76), turbidity (r²_adj = 0.59), the organic content of suspended sediments (r² = 0.50), and nitrite‐nitrate concentration (r²_adj = 0.50) were significant predictors of the skeletal linear extension rate of M. ampliata. Maximum linear extension growth rates of M. ampliata (mean ± SD: 1.43 ± 0.67–3.26 ± 0.59 cm·year^?1) were comparable to 15‐year‐old accounts at the same research sites, indicating adaptation to low‐light, high‐sediment waters.