Fast and slow responses of the North Pacific mode water and Subtropical Countercurrent to global warming

Six coupled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are employed for examining the full evolution of the North Pacific mode water and Subtropical Countercurrent (STCC) under global warming over 400 years following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5. The mode water and STCC first show a sharp weakening trend when the radiative forcing increases, but then reverse to a slow strengthening trend of smaller magnitude after the radiative forcing is stablized. As the radiative forcing increases during the 21st century, the ocean warming is surface-intensified and decreases with depth, strengthening the upper ocean’s stratification and becoming unfavorable for the mode water formation. Moving southward in the subtropical gyre, the shrinking mode water decelerates the STCC to the south. After the radiative forcing is stabilized in the 2070s, the subsequent warming is greater at the subsurface than at the sea surface, destabilizing the upper ocean and becoming favorable for the mode water formation. As a result, the mode water and STCC recover gradually after the radiative forcing is stabilized.     

Nonlocal period parameters of frequency content characterization for near-fault ground motions

This paper focuses on the frequency property analysis of near-fault ground motions with and without distinct pulses, separately from the Chi-Chi and Northridge earthquakes. Ten scalar period parameters of ground motions, especially several nonlocal period parameters, are considered. Two new nonlocal parameters, namely the mean period of Hilbert marginal spectrum (T_mh) and the improved characteristic period (T_gi), are suggested. Moreover, comprehensive comparison and analysis indicate that T_mh, T_gi and T_avg (average spectral period) can distinguish the low-frequency components of near-fault ground motions; T_m (mean period of Fourier amplitude spectrum) and T_o (smoothed spectral predominant period) represent the moderate- and high-frequency components, respectively. The variance coefficient of predominant instantaneous frequency of Hilbert spectrum (H_cov) can be regarded as an alternative index to measure the non-stationary degree of near-fault ground motions. Finally, the velocity pulses and earthquake magnitude remarkably affect the frequency parameters of near-fault ground motions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Precipitation cycles in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River (1736?2000)

Based on the long-term precipitation series with annual time resolution in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and its four sub-regions during 1736?2000 recon-structed from the rainfall and snowfall archives of the Qing Dynasty, the precipitation cycles are analyzed by wavelet analysis and the possible climate forcings, which drive the precipita-tion changes, are explored. The results show that: the precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River has inter-annual and inter-decadal oscillations like 2?4a, quasi-22a and 70?80a. The 2?4a cycle is linked with El Ni?o events, and the precipitation is lower than normal year in the occurrence of the El Ni?o year or the next year; for the quasi-22a and the 70?80a cycles, Wolf Sun Spot Numbers and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) coincide with the two cycle signals. However, on a 70?80a time scale, the coincidence between solar activity and precipitation is identified before 1830, and strong (weak) solar activity is generally correlated to the dry (wet) periods; after 1830, the solar activity changes to 80?100a quasi-century long oscillation, and the adjusting action to the precipitation is be-coming weaker and weaker; the coincidence between PDO and precipitation is shown in the whole time series. Moreover, in recent 100 years, PDO is becoming a pace-maker of the precipitation on the 70?80a time scale.     

Sedimentary evolution of the Late Eocene Vernet lacustrine system (South-Central Pyrenees). Tectono-climatic control in an alluvial-lacustrine piggyback basin

A complete third-order tectono-sedimentary cycle filled the Vernet lacustrine piggyback basin during the late Eocene. The depositional sequence can be subdivided into five units or systems tracts with distinct architectural frameworks, which developed a progressive unconformity. Sedimentary infilling of the piggyback basin began with retrogradational alluvial fans and fluvio-alluvial deposits being deposited, arranged in two thinning- and fining-upward cycles during the uplifting and emplacement of the southernmost Pyrenean thrusts, and with three thickening- and coarsening-upward progradational floodplain and lacustrine cycles, during the quiescence of the southernmost thrusts, at the same time as the emplacement of several northernmost thrusts of the southern Pyrenees. The facies associations identified represent different depositional environments in a sheetflow-dominated system, including playa-lake deposits, floodplain deposits, sheetflow fluvial deposits and sheet deltas in ephemeral to shallow lacustrine settings. Fourth and fifth order arid/semi-arid climatic cycles can be recognized, driven either by orbital obliquity and precessional forcing (Milankovitch cyclicity), insolation cycles or possibly subprecessional autogenic mechanisms related to the emplacement of northern thrusts and the consequent changes in the drainage basin. Arid periods are recorded by sheetflood fluvial, ephemeral lacustrine or terminal splay deposits, with abundant medium-to-coarse-grained sandstone packages in red-to-grey mudstones, a product of unconfined or low-confined sheetflows or hyperconcentrated flows, with bedload and suspended load, during flood episodes, at times of lake lowstand. Semi-arid periods are recorded as relative highstand lacustrine deposits, including grey-to-white mudstones deposited in prodelta environments and fine-grained sheet sandstone units sedimented in a delta front (with minor channels and extensive sheet lobes) and prodelta environments in shallow lakes, from sheetflood events.     

甲烷浓度变化的有效辐射强迫及其对气候的影响

利用国家气候中心大气环流模式BCC_AGCM2.0,结合IPCC 第五次评估报告给出的最新有效辐射强迫的概念,模拟了自工业革命以来由于人类活动造成的甲烷浓度增加引起的有效辐射强迫及其气候效应。得出如下结论：甲烷浓度增加造成的有效辐射强迫的全球平均值为0.49 W/m²;导致全球平均地表温度上升0.31 ℃,升温主要分布在南北半球中高纬度地区;全球平均降水量增加0.02 mm/d,赤道辐合带降水中心有向北移动的趋势;地表水汽通量的变化使高纬度地区云量增加（约4%）,而中低纬度地区云量减小（约-3%）。     

Remote and local forcing of a coastal lagoon: The Virginia Coast Reserve

The effects of local and remote wind forcing of water level heights in the Virginia Coast Reserve (VCR) are examined in order to determine the significant forces governing estuarine motions over subtidal time scales. Recent (1996–2008) data from tide and wind stations in the lagoon, a tide station to the north at Sandy Hook, NJ, and one offshore wind station at the Chesapeake Light Tower are examined. Sea surface height spectrum calculations reveal significant diurnal and semidiurnal tidal effects along with subtidal variations, but a suppressed inertial signal. Sea-surface heights (SSH) with 2–5 day periods at Wachapreague, VA are coherent with those at Sandy Hook and lag them in time, suggesting that southward-propagating continental shelf waves provide subtidal variability within the lagoon. The coherence between lagoon winds and sea surface height, as well as between winds and cross-lagoon sea height gradient, were significant at a relatively small number of frequency and wind direction combinations. The frequencies at which this wind forcing occurs are the tidal and subtidal bands present to the north, so that lagoon winds selectively augment existing SSH signals, but do not generate them. The impact of the wind direction is closely related to the geometry of the lagoon and bounding landmasses. The effect of wind stress is also constrained by geometry in affecting the cross-lagoon water height gradient. Water levels at subtidal frequencies are likely forced by a combination of local wind forcing, remote wind forcing and oceanic forcing modified by the complex topography of the lagoon, shelf, and barrier islands.     

基于Burgers模型考虑损伤的非定常岩石蠕变模型

Burgers模型只能描述岩石蠕变的前两个阶段,为了描述蠕变全过程,考虑蠕变参数的时间效应及损伤带来的影响,采用非定常黏性元件取代Burgers模型中串联的定常黏性元件,使其能描述加速蠕变阶段。根据损伤变量的变化特征,假定了一个函数,经过Lemaitre应变等效原理,代入Kelvin模型可得到能描述蠕变衰减阶段的模型。试验数据拟合结果显示,改进的Burgers模型能很好地描述加速蠕变阶段,模型拟合曲线与试验曲线基本吻合,相关系数高,参数取值也在合理范围内;非定常Burgers模型更适合描述不同应力下的岩石蠕变特征曲线。     

Erosive water level regime and climatic variability forcing of beach–dune systems on south‐western Vancouver Island,British Columbia,Canada

Increases in the frequency and magnitude of extreme water levels and storm surges are correlated with known indices of climatic variability (CV), including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), along some areas of the British Columbia coast. Since a shift to a positive PDO regime in 1977, the effects of ENSO events have been more frequent, persistent, and intense. Teleconnected impacts include more frequent storms, higher surges, and enhanced coastal erosion. The response of oceanographic forcing mechanisms (i.e. tide, surge, wave height, wave period) to CV events and their role in coastal erosion remain unclear, particularly in western Canada. As a first step in exploring the interactions between ocean–atmosphere forcing and beach–dune responses, this paper assembles the historic erosive total water level (TWL) regime and explores relations with observed high magnitude storms that have occurred in the Tofino‐Ucluelet region (Wickaninnish Bay) on the west coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. Extreme events where TWL exceeded an erosional threshold (i.e. elevation of the beach–foredune junction) of 5·5 m aCD are examined to identify dominant forcing mechanisms and to classify a regime that describes erosive events driven principally by wave conditions (61·5%), followed by surge (21·8%), and tidal (16·7%) effects. Furthermore, teleconnections between regional CV phenomena, extreme storm events and, by association, coastal erosion, are explored. Despite regional sea level rise (eustatic and steric), rapid crustal uplift rates have resulted in a falling relative sea level and, in some sedimentary systems, shoreline progradation at rates approaching +1·5 m a^–1 over recent decades. Foredune erosion occurs locally with a recurrence interval of approximately 1·53 years followed by rapid rebuilding due to high onshore sand supply and often in the presence of large woody debris and rapidly colonizing vegetation in the backshore. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Water Vapor and Cloud Radiative Forcings over the Pacific Ocean Simulated by the LASG/IAP AGCM: Sensitivity to Convection Schemes

Characteristics of the total clear-sky greenhouse effect (GA) and cloud radiative forcings (CRFs), along with the radiative-related water vapor and cloud properties simulated by the Spectral Atmospheric Model developed by LASGIAP (SAMIL) are evaluated. Impacts of the convection scheme on the simulation of CRFs are discussed by using two AMIP (Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project) type simulations employing different convection schemes: the new Zhang-McFarlane (NZH) and Tiedtke (TDK) convection schemes. It shows that both the climatological GA and its response to El Nio warming are simulated well, both in terms of spatial pattern and magnitude. The impact of the convection scheme on GA is not significant. The climatological longwave CRF (LWCRF) and its response to El Nio warming are simulated well, but with a prominently weaker magnitude. The simulation of the climatology (response) of LWCRF in the NZH (TDK) run is slightly more realistic than in the TDK (NZH) simulation, indicating significant impacts of the convection scheme. The shortwave CRF (SWCRF) shows large biases in both spatial pattern and magnitude, and the results from the TDK run are better than those from the NZH run. A spuriously excessive negative climatological SWCRF over the southeastern Pacific and an insufficient response of SWCRF to El Nio warming over the tropical Pacific are seen in the NZH run. These two biases are alleviated in the TDK run, since it produces vigorous convection, which is related to the low threshold for convection to take place. Also, impacts of the convection scheme on the cloud profile are discussed.     

On the Forced Tangentially-Averaged Radial-Vertical Circulation within Vortices. Part II: The Transformation of Tropical Storm Haima (2004)

A real case study for the transformation of Tropical Storm (TS) Haima (2004) into an extratropical cyclone (EC) is carried out numerically since,after landfall,Haima (2004) (as an EC) brought severe weather to a large area (from the south to the north) in China during 13-16 September 2004.With the linear diagnostic model (derived in a previous study) for the tangentially-averaged radial-vertical circulation within vortices moving on the spherical Earth,Haima’s (2004) life cycle is reconstructed noticeably well.Therefore,the major contributor could be identified confidently for Haima’s (2004) extratropical transition based on the diagnostic model outputs.The quantitative comparison shows that up to a 90% contribution to the innerregion updraft and a 55% contribution to the upper-layer outflow come from latent heating during Haima’s (2004) TS stage.Up to a 90% contribution to the inner-region updraft and nearly a 100% contribution to the upper-layer outflow come from the upper-layer eddy angular momentum advection (EAMA) during Haima’s (2004) EC stage.Representing the asymmetric structure of the storm,the predominantly positive contribution of the upper-layer EAMA to Haima’s (2004) transformation is closely associated with the Sshaped westerlies in the upper layer with two jets.One jet in the cyclonic-curvature area carries cyclonic angular momentum into the storm,and the other jet in the anticyclonic-curvature area carries anticyclonic angular momentum out of the storm.Consequently,the newly-increased cyclonic tangential wind is deflected by the Coriolis force to the right to form the upper-layer outflow accompanied by the central-area rising motion,leading to Haima’s (2004) extratropical transition after its landfall.