高原季节转换时期大气环流变化特征

利用1961～ 2007年NCEP/NCAR的再分析逐日资料,分析高原主体上空大气环流的季节变化和受到高原影响的东亚大型环流系统的季节变化,以此证明本文得到的“高原普适性划分方法”的合理性.得到的初步结论概括如下：高原主体上空的位势高度、风场、高空温度、降水的季节变化和高原普适性季节划分方法划分的高原四季变化一致,高原南亚高压、副热带高压、副热带西风急流的三个特征指数季节变化和高原普适性季节划分方法划分的高原四季变化一致,这些结论都说明高原普适性季节划分方法划分的高原四季是合理的;风场季节率（500hPa、100hPa）显著区随高度升高向赤道靠近,风场季节率的变化主要和东亚季风的变化有关,大气环流系统季节率的显著说明了大气环流的季节变化,同时也证明了高原普适性季节划分方法的合理性.     

SIMULATING THE RESPONSE OF NON-UNIFORMITY OF PRECIPITATION EXTREMES OVER CHINA TO CO2 INCREASING BY MIROC_HIRES MODEL

The response of non-uniformity of precipitation extremes over China to doubled CO2has been analyzed using the daily precipitation simulated by a coupled general circulation model,MIROC_Hires.The major conclusions are as follows:under the CO2increasing scenario(SRES A1B),the climatological precipitation extremes are concentrated over the southern China,while they are uniformly distributed over the northern China.For interannual variability,the concentration of precipitation extremes is small over the southern China,but it is opposite over the northern China.The warming effects on the horizontal and vertical scales are different over the northern and southern part of China.Furthermore,the atmospheric stability is also different between the two parts of China.The heterogeneous warming is one of the possible reasons for the changes in non-uniformity of precipitation extremes over China.     

地质旋回与天文周期

太阳辐射量变化与地质旋回的对应关系表明，太阳辐射不仅是形成地磁场内外磁尾和地壳与内核反向振动的原因，而且是核幔电磁耦合和能量交换的原因，在这个过程中，太阳向地球既输送了大量热能，又输送了大量电磁辐射能，这是我们通过天文周期预测未来地质变动的理论基础。     

广东省汛期旱涝成因和前期影响因子探讨

根据广东省８６个气象站降水量资料，用正态化Ｚ指数对前，后汛期旱涝等级进行了划分，前汛期旱涝年对比分析表明：西太平洋副高造成的南海地区较强偏南风和较强东亚大槽以及较强垲支西风急流（有利于中纬度冷空气南侵）之间的相互作用是影响广东前汛期降水偏多的直接原因，广东前汛期偏早的主要原因是冷空气偏弱，西太平洋暖池海温变化是这种相互作用的重要影响因子，暖池海温偏高（低），广东前汛期正常偏旱（涝）。前期１２－２月西太平洋暖池海温是前汛期旱涝变化的重要强信号之一，预测前汛期旱涝时应特别关注两极极涡的强度变化和中纬度地区位势高度变化，后汛期旱斩份对比分析表明：亚洲夏季风系统偏强（弱）是造成广东省后污期偏涝（旱）的最重要因素，登陆广东的热带气施个数对后污期降水的影响也比较大，还探讨了后汛期旱涝的预测问题，提出前期５月份北太平洋东部地区５００hPa位势高度距平是预测后汛期旱涝的重要强信号，其位势高度为正距平，则广东后汛期偏早，负距平则偏涝，南半球中高纬地区大气环流变化通过对印度夏季风的影响从而影响后汛期旱涝的变化。     

河南省气候变化对大豆生育期的影响研究

利用河南省林州市和泛区农业气象观测站1993—2013年及正阳县农业气象观测站1993—2008年的大豆生育期观测资料和同期气象观测资料,通过数理统计、标准化处理和通径分析等方法分析河南省气候变化对大豆生长发育的影响。研究表明:河南省大豆播种期有逐渐提前的趋势,全生育期日数和各生育期间隔日数有增加的趋势;从北到南,播种期、出苗期和开花期逐渐提前,成熟期有所延长;大豆生育期日数有延长的趋势,南部的趋势比北部的明显。从北到南,各生育期同期降水量增多的趋势逐渐明显,日照时数减少的趋势逐渐减弱,平均气温增长的趋势逐渐减弱。河南省北部地区日照时数和平均气温的变化对大豆生育期有较大的影响,中部地区降水量和平均气温的变化对大豆生育期有较大的影响,南部地区平均气温是主要影响因子。     

Spectral discrimination of giant reed (Arundo donax L.): A seasonal study in riparian areas

The giant reed (Arundo donax L.) is amongst the one hundred worst invasive alien species of the world, and it is responsible for biodiversity loss and failure of ecosystem functions in riparian habitats. In this work, field spectroradiometry was used to assess the spectral separability of the giant reed from the adjacent vegetation and from the common reed, a native similar species.The study was conducted at different phenological periods and also for the giant reed stands regenerated after mechanical cutting (giant reed_RAC). A hierarchical procedure using Kruskal–Wallis test followed by Classification and Regression Trees (CART) was used to select the minimum number of optimal bands that discriminate the giant reed from the adjacent vegetation. A new approach was used to identify sets of wavelengths – wavezones – that maximize the spectral separability beyond the minimum number of optimal bands. Jeffries Matusita and Bhattacharya distance were used to evaluate the spectral separability using the minimum optimal bands and in three simulated satellite images, namely Landsat, IKONOS and SPOT.Giant reed was spectrally separable from the adjacent vegetation, both at the vegetative and the senescent period, exception made to the common reed at the vegetative period. The red edge region was repeatedly selected, although the visible region was also important to separate the giant reed from the herbaceous vegetation and the mid infrared region to the discrimination from the woody vegetation. The highest separability was obtained for the giant reed_RAC stands, due to its highly homogeneous, dense and dark-green stands. Results are discussed by relating the phenological, morphological and structural features of the giant reed stands and the adjacent vegetation with their optical traits. Weaknesses and strengths of the giant reed spectral discrimination are highlighted and implications of imagery selection for mapping purposes are argued based on present results.     

低轨道卫星重复周期的设计方法及其对重力场反演的影响

研究低轨卫星重复周期的设计原理,给出相应的计算公式。基于此对不同轨道高度卫星的重复周期进行数值仿真,并利用动力学方法分析不同重复周期轨道星下点轨迹的空间采样对重力场反演精度的影响。结果表明,卫星的重复周期与其轨道高度的变化并不成线性关系,并且在顾及重力场时间分辨率的情况下,长重复周期能够提高卫星地面轨迹的空间采样,为重力场解算提供较好的条件。     

华北地区中强地震时间间隔特征与目前大形势分析

针对目前华北地区5、6级地震持续平静的复杂形势,分析了华北地区1484年以来M≥5、M≥6级地震的时间间隔特征,结果表明:①1731～1814年地震平静期的5、6级地震的平均时间间隔明显长于1484～1730年及1815年以来2个地震活动期的平均时间间隔,说明华北地区地震起伏交替轮回的韵律性是客观的;②华北地区2个地震活动期中相邻活动幕的幕间M≥5地震(含平静幕里发生的地震)平均时间间隔(86月)与1731～1814年平静期内单次M≥5级地震平均时间间隔(90月)一致,90月可做为华北地区5级地震异常平静的标志性时间;③类比500多年华北地区5、6级地震的时间间隔特征认为,当前华北地区正处于2000年以来的平静幕后期,该平静幕已持续169月,已经随时有可能发生5、6级地震,开始进入新一轮的地震活动幕.     

The decreasing spring frost risks during the flowering period for woody plants in temperate area of eastern China over past 50 years

The temperate monsoon area of China is an important agricultural region but late spring frosts have frequently caused significant damage to plants there. Based on phenological data derived from the Chinese Phenological Observation Network （CPON）, corresponding meteorological data from 12 study sites and phenological modeling, changes in flowering times of multiple woody plants and the frequency of frost occurrence were analyzed. Through these analyses, frost risk during the flowering period at each site was estimated. Results of these estimates suggested that first flowering dates （FFD） in the study area advanced significantly from 1963 to 2009 at an average rate of -1.52 days/decade in North-east China （P〈0.01） and -2.22 days/decade （P〈0.01） in North China. Over the same period, the number of frost days in spring decreased and the last frost days advanced across the study area. Considering both flowering phenology and occurrence of frost, the frost risk index, which measures the percentage of species exposed to frost during the flowering period in spring, exhibited a decreasing trend of -0.37% per decade （insignificant） in Northeast China and -1.80% per decade （P〈0.01） in North China, implying that frost risk has reduced over the past half century. These conclusions provide important information to agriculture and forest managers in devising frost protection schemes in the region.     

Causes, effects and control of seasonal frost action in railways

Seasonally cold climate and resulting frost action set great demands to railway track substructure in order to maintain track geometry. Challenges culminate on high-speed lines, where the tolerances for roughness are the tightest. Problems may result in highly increased track maintenance and need for temporary speed restrictions. The causes of frost action can be associated with subsoil, subballast or ballast. The major concern in frost protection is to avoid the freezing of frost susceptible subsoil by using sufficient thickness of subballast and relying on non-frost-susceptible subballast material. This paper provides an overview of the main research findings on the role of ballast, subballast and subsoil in frost action. In new construction the material specifications, design procedures and construction methods have been developed to ensure adequate performance of track substructures, but special challenges exist in managing existing tracks that were not designed for modern requirements. In order to perform cost-effective and sustainable track maintenance, it is necessary to recognize the problem areas and define the root-causes of problems. For locating the problem sections and defining the causes of defects, a sophisticated analysis based on integration of track geometry and ground penetrating radar (GPR) data has been developed and is summarized in this paper.