GM（1，1）动态模型在吴江市地下水水位预测中的应用

以吴江市地下水水位预测为例,详细阐述了地下水水位时间序列的GM（1,1）动态模型的原理和建立过程,并根据模型的预测值和实测值,对模型的精度进行了检验,结果表明,模型的预测精度达到了99．27％,等级属于Ⅰ级,具有实际的应用价值,为地下水资源的科学管理提供了依据。     

追忆李四光对防震减灾的贡献,以系统整体观指导防震应急

笔者在追忆李四光地震科学和防震减灾指导思想的基础上,提出了以系统整体观指导防震应急的新论点,包括:运用地壳运动整体观研究地震规律;应用地震预测整体观进行地震预测;划分活动性构造体系,研究构造活动性;加强综合监测,研究各种地震前兆和相关的自然变异的发展趋势;圈定地震风险区,制定防震应急预案等.并结合中国的实际情况进行了论述.     

The origin of accretionary lapilli

Experimental investigations in a recirculating wind tunnel of the mechanisms of formation of accretionary lapilli have demonstrated that growth is controlled by collision of liquid-coated particles, due to differences in fall velocities, and binding as a result of surface tension forces and secondary mineral growth. The liquids present on particle surfaces in eruption plumes are acid solutions stable at 100% relative humidity, from which secondary minerals, e.g. calcium sulphate and sodium chloride, precipitate prior to impact of accretionary lapilli with the ground. Concentric grain-size zones within accretionary lapilli build up due to differences in the supply of particular particle sizes during aggregate growth. Accretionary lapilli do not evolve by scavenging of particles by liquid drops followed by evaporation — a process which, in wind tunnel experiments, generates horizontally layered hemispherical aggregates. Size analysis of particles in the wind tunnel air stream and particles adhering to growing aggregates demonstrate that the aggregation coefficient is highly grain-size dependent. Theoretical simulation of accretionary lapilli growth in eruption plumes predicts maximum sizes in the range 0.7–20 mm for ash cloud thicknesses of 0.5–10 km respectively.     

Structure and energy transfer of unstable hot star winds

Due to the instability of the radiation line force, the winds of hot, luminous stars should show a pronounced time-dependence resulting from the nonlinear growth of initially small perturbations. Following the method of Owocki, Castor & Rybicki (1988), we describe the time-dependent wind structure obtained with an independently developed code. Under the central assumption ofisothermality, our results are in very good agreement with the ones by Owocki et al. We find that the response of the wind to periodic base perturbations remains largely periodic, at least up tor 2...3R _* , with no clear evidence of stochastic behaviour.In order to test the foregoing assumption of isothermality and to compute the X-ray emission from models of structured winds, we have also incorporated theenergy equation into our simulations. We encountered the numerical problem that all radiative cooling zones collapse because of the oscillatory thermal instability (cf. Langer et al. 1981). We present a method to hinder this collapse by changing the cooling function at low temperatures. The resulting wind showsresolved cooling zones; but, for a supergiant wind relatively close to the star (r 10R _* ), the macroscopic wind structure is very similar to isothermal calculations. Most of the hot material is caused by shell-shell collisions.     

扬州市6－7月份天气预报服务业务化系统

从地（市）级气象台的业务工作出发,试图建立通过微机实现的对上接收信息、对外预报服务、对下预报指导的三位一体的天气预报服务业务化系统,以发挥地（市）级气象台在经济建设和防灾减灾中的作用,推动天气预报和服务的现代化建设,把基层气象工作推向一个新的台阶。     

新疆地区夏季平流层低层风场特征分析及数值模拟

利用2017年6—8月的FNL再分析资料分析了新疆地区夏季平流层低层风场的时空演变特征，开展了平流层低层风场的高分辨率数值模拟和检验。结果表明：新疆地区夏季平流层纬向风随时间的变化存在经向差异，同时准零风层开始和结束的时间也存在经向差异，准零风层开始时间南部地区早于北部地区，而准零风层结束时间则相反。整个夏季新疆地区上空的准零风层处于70～40 hPa之间，其高度随时间呈先降低而后升高的变化趋势。准零风层数值模拟结果表明，模拟的准零风层参数与探空资料分析结果相比二者存在一致的变化趋势，准零风层起始高度的平均绝对误差为467 m，该高度对应的风速均方根误差为1.75 m/s。     

短周期仪器记录在远震分析中的应用

地震泼由多种频率成份组成,在其传播过程中。由于地球介质的滤波作用,随着传播距离的增大。高频成份逐渐被衰减。周期越大的成份传播越远。因此,在地震观测上,不同频带的地震仪用于观测不同震中距范围的地震,使仪器较好地响应,就我国台网而言,短周期仪用于地方震、近震的监测,中长周期仪和长周期仪用于远震,极远震的监测,其中长周期仪偏重于记录极远震。但作者在实际分析工作中注意到,短周期仪的记录应用于远震,极远震的分析,显示出独特的作用,充分挖掘和利用短仪资料,将会更加丰富远震、极远震的震相资料。本文以高台地震台的资料为依据,从震中距和震级角度,与中长仪和长仪作比较,对短仪记录远震、极远震的震相及特征作了统计分析与初步探讨,并对新疆地区“影区”地震S波的记录、日本地区地震_PPcP等震相的出现提出了现象的存在,给出了相应的观测结果,以待步一步研究。     

Using numerical modelling to evaluate tsunami hazard near the Kuril Island

A sequence of computer experiments is used to study questions concerning the tsunami problem as a quantitative estimate of tsunami danger, detailed geographical tsunami classification, determination of the parameters of critical tsunami waves, and the conditions of their development. We call a wave critical, if its impact on the coast is most hazardous.Using the Middle Kuril Island as an example, we present the results of a computer experiment which includes determining the wavefields on the shelf and estimating the effects connected with the deep-water Bussol and Diana Straits.Numerical simulation of tsunami waves of different sources permits the assessment of the extent of tsunami danger in different areas of the coastal zone of Simushir Island, depending on the location of the focus zone and their geometry.The major singularities of the wavefield arise in the zones of the deep-water straits. The distribution of the amplification factors is determined by both the global parameters of the wavefields and the local properties of individual harbours. The results obtained for a particular harbour in the northern part of Simushir Island, formed the basis for the quantitative estimate of tsunami danger for this area.     

Threshold velocity for wind erosion: the effects of porous fences

Porous fence is a kind of artificial windbreak that has many practical applications. The threshold wind velocities at different distances downwind from porous fences were measured and the corresponding characteristics of particle movement observed to assess their shelter effect. It is found that the fence’s porosity is the key factor that determines the resulting shelter effect. The area near a fence can be typically classified into five regions, each with a different mode of particle movement. Dense fences, and especially solid fences, favor the accumulation of sand upwind of the fences. Fences with porosities of 0.3–0.4 produce the maximum threshold wind velocity; those with porosities of 0.3–0.6 (depending on the fence height) provide the maximum effective shelter distance. It is confirmed that the fence porosities of 0.3–0.4 that have been proposed for practical application in previous research are the most effective for abating wind erosion.     

Net Energy Payback and CO2 Emissions from Three Midwestern Wind Farms: An Update

This paper updates a life-cycle net energy analysis and carbon dioxide emissions analysis of three Midwestern utility-scale wind systems. Both the Energy Payback Ratio (EPR) and CO₂ analysis results provide useful data for policy discussions regarding an efficient and low-carbon energy mix. The EPR is the amount of electrical energy produced for the lifetime of the power plant divided by the total amount of energy required to procure and transport the materials, build, operate, and decommission the power plants. The CO₂ analysis for each power plant was calculated from the life-cycle energy input data. A previous study also analyzed coal and nuclear fission power plants. At the time of that study, two of the three wind systems had less than a full year of generation data to project the life-cycle energy production. This study updates the analysis of three wind systems with an additional four to eight years of operating data. The EPR for the utility-scale wind systems ranges from a low of 11 for a two-turbine system in Wisconsin to 28 for a 143-turbine system in southwestern Minnesota. The EPR is 11 for coal, 25 for fission with gas centrifuge enriched uranium and 7 for gaseous diffusion enriched uranium. The normalized CO₂ emissions, in tonnes of CO₂ per GW_eh, ranges from 14 to 33 for the wind systems, 974 for coal, and 10 and 34 for nuclear fission using gas centrifuge and gaseous diffusion enriched uranium, respectively.