预报指标自动归纳和实时自动推理预报系统

本文结合实际应用介绍一种人工智能系统。系统的重要特点是,根据预报指标经验知识的产生过程的机理性知识所设计成功的系统主程序之一的“预报指标自动归纳程序”,能够通过对多因子历史资料的分析归纳,自动生成含有较全面知识规则的规则库。有关专家只须凭感性经验提供可能因子和原始资料,系统便能帮助升华出理性的经验规则,自动建成某一专项业务的应用预报系统。对这种“母系统”的反复使用,就可以根据不同类别的资料生成相应的多种应用系统。既适用于气象上风雨暑寒各类天气预报,也适用于其他某些专业,如水文、地震等的定性预报或分析。 本文除简单介绍系统的构造、功能、设计原理之外,还给出一个应用实例,介绍了如何使用本系统去产生应用性系统的具体方法步骤。     

Influence of Wind on Dynamics and Flushing of Shallow Estuaries

Observations of two small estuaries in Cape Cod, U.S.A. indicate large variations in salinity structure that are forced by variations in along-estuary wind stress. During onshore winds, the estuarine circulation is reduced, and the along-estuary salinity gradient increases as freshwater accumulates. During offshore winds, the surface outflow is enhanced, freshwater is flushed out of the estuary, and the along-estuary salinity gradient becomes weak. Constrictions block the wind-induced flushing, resulting in strong salinity fronts across the constrictions. The residence time of one of the estuaries varies by more than a factor of three in response to variations in wind-induced flushing. The other estuary has little variation of flushing associated with winds, due to a constriction at the mouth that inhibits the wind-induced exchange. The strong influence of winds on the flushing of these estuaries is due in part to their shallow depths, which accentuates the influence of wind stress relative to the effects of the horizontal density gradient. In addition, the residence times of the estuaries are comparable to the time scale of wind forcing, allowing large changes in water properties during wind events.     

Coastal Upwelling Activity on the Pacific Shelf of the Baja California Peninsula

High primary productivity on the Pacific coast of the Baja California Peninsula is usually related to coastal upwelling activity that injects nutrients into the euphotic zone in response to prevailing longshore winds (from the northwest to north). The upwelling process has maximum intensity from April to June, with the coastal upwelling index varying from 50 to 300 m³/s per 100 m of coastline. Along the entire coast of the peninsula, the upwelling intensity changes in accordance with local wind conditions and bottom topography. Spatial variability can also be modulated by the influence of mesoscale meanders of the California Current. We have identified the seasonal and synoptic variability of upwelling signatures on the Baja California shelf, using averaged monthly and weekly sea surface temperature (SST) distributions obtained from remote sensing imagery from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer in the period from 1996 to 2001. Analysis of SST distribution and direct experimental data on temperature and nutrient concentration shows that the areas with the coldest SST anomalies were closely related to the bottom slope, shelf width, and coastline orientation relating to wind direction. We also assume that the nutrient transport into the coastal lagoons may be forced by the coupling of coastal upwelling and tidal pumping of surface waters into the lagoon system. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Decadal Variability of Subsurface Temperature in the Central North Pacific

Decadal variability of subsurface temperature in the North Pacific has been investigated. Two dominant regions were found; the central subarctic region (CSa) and the north-eastern subtropical region (NESt). In CSa, cooling (warming) of wintertime subsurface temperature corresponds to the large (small) temperature gradient and southward (northward) shift of subsurface temperature front, associated with the increase (decrease) of positive wind stress curl and the southward (northward) shift of curl τ zero line with 2 years delay. It is suggested that the relocation of subtropical-subarctic boundary plays an important role. In NESt, importance of heat flux through the sea surface and heat divergence in the Ekman layer is also discussed. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

沃克环流上升区赤道低空强西风带的分析

采用ＴＯＧＡ／ＣＯＡＲＥ国际合作考察期间（１９９２年１０月─１９９３年２月）获得的２６７次定点（２°Ｓ，１５５°Ｅ）定时高空大气探测资料，进行计算分析，发现１９９２年１２月─１９９３年２月低空存在一支西风急流，有两次分别持续半月之久，而１９９２年１１月的两次赤道西风急流，因无赤道高空急流配合，仅持续２ｄ便消失。本文还指出：（１）赤道低空西风急流是各种海－气指数产生ＥＮＳＯ异常的重要信息；（２）赤道高空急流有滞后赤道低空急流２ｄ左右的响应关系；（３）赤道低空急流是纬向水汽输送的狭窄通道。     

A climatology of mesoscale model simulated low-level wind jets over Cook Inlet and Shelikof Strait, Alaska

Weather in the North Gulf of Alaska is characterized by a high frequency of deep synoptic-scale low-pressure systems, especially during the cold season. The strong pressure gradients of these storms interact with the extremely rugged terrain of the coastal mountains to produce a variety of channeled flows. These surface wind regimes are not well documented in the scientific community, due to the paucity of observations. Modeling of these phenomena in regions of complex terrain is of great interest to those working with hydrodynamic, wave, and pollutant transport models in coastal and shelf areas. Such models, when coupled with ocean and coastal-ecology counterparts, give a broad view of the role surface winds play in shaping local coastal marine ecosystem in this region. This paper presents a climatology of simulated low-level wind jets over the domain of Cook Inlet and Shelikof Strait along Alaska's south-central coast. Daily simulations using the RAMS model were conducted in a 36-h forecast mode for the cold-season period 10/1/03 to 3/31/04. Systematic analysis of the resulting simulated low-level wind field makes it possible to characterize these jets and gap flows in spatial and temporal detail. The comparison between the RAMS winds and the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR)-derived winds when available verifies the existence of these wind jets and the capability of the model to simulate these cases. Clearly, the results of a study in this region depend on the fidelity of the model at these scales (O[5 km]). The SAR comparisons attempt to help establish this. From the 6 months of simulations over Cook Inlet and Shelikof Strait, the low-level wind jets are classified into 10 different regimes by location and orientation. These regimes are categorized into four more general groups: cross-channel westerly, easterly, and up and down Inlet flows. The nature of a particular regime is largely a function of pressure gradient orientation and local topography. Jets in the same group have a similar occurrence distribution with time. Some form of jet occurred in the study region almost daily each month of the period, with December 2003 having the highest frequency of wind jets.     

南海波高熵和风速熵

根据风速的统计分布，给出了有因次风速熵和无因次风速熵的定义及其计算方法，使用ＧＥＯＳＡＴ高度计１９８６年１１月－１９８９年２月的有效波高和风速的资料，计算，分析了南海海域上的波高熵，风速熵，给出它们的时间变化特征和空间变化特征，并对不同随机量的无因次熵，即随机度进行了比较。     

分形分析方法在海冰趋势预测中的应用

根据渤海北部1966——2001海冰冰级年际变化的实际资料，利用R／S分析的原理和方法计算了H指数，建立了R(i)/S(i)与i的关系式，对渤海北部海冰趋势进行了预测分析。结果表明，利用分形分析方法进行海冰趋势预测不仅方法简便，而且结论具有客观性，可以将其作为海冰趋势预测中较为有效的一种方法。     

青岛市大气污染时间序列分析预报方法研究

根据青岛市大气污染监测资料 ,采用时间序列分析方法 ,建立多种预报模型 ,有原序列周期外延法、均生函数周期外延法、均生函数逐步回归法以及自回归预报法等 ,最后提出一种综合预报模型。连续预报试验表明 ,综合预报模型优于任何个别预报模型 ,有较好的预报能力。利用马尔可夫概型对污染状态 (轻、中、重 )进行了分级预报试验 ,也获得良好的效果。