降水丰枯变化和产流条件改变对汾河径流影响的定量研究

定量分析汾河径流锐减的形成原因是汾河流域水资源可持续利用与管理中迫切需要解决的问题。本项研究首先采用降水-径流双累积曲线对汾河流域产流条件演变过程进行了两个时期的划分;然后采用距平百分比法对汾河流域年降水系列进行了丰枯状态划分,并建立了汾河河津站年径流量与当年降水量、上一年降水量之间的多元动态回归模型;并运用该模型定量分析了降水丰枯变化和产流条件改变对汾河径流的影响程度。结果表明：在1956-1973年间的产流条件下,降水变化使得河津站年均径流量平均减少约22.71%;在1974-2008年间的产流条件下,降水变化使得河津站年均径流量在平、枯两种年份平均减少了约18.95%;在1956-1973年间的年降水为平水或枯水条件下,产流条件改变使得河津站年均径流量减少了约47.11%;在1974-2008年间的降水条件下,产流条件改变使得河津站年均径流量减少了约55.20%。     

Extracting water-related features using reflectance data and principal component analysis of Landsat images

This study aimed to map water features using a Landsat image rather than traditional land cover. We involved the original bands, spectral indices and principal components (PCs) of a principal component analysis (PCA) as input data, and performed random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM) classification with water, saturated soil and non-water categories. The aim was to compare the efficiency of the results based on various input data. Original bands provided 93% overall accuracy (OA) and bands 4–5–7 were the most informative in this analysis. Except for MNDWI (modified normalized differenced water index, with 98% OA), the performance of all water indices was between 60 and 70% (OA). The PCA-based approach conducted on the original bands resulted in the most accurate identification of all classes (with only 1% error in the case of water bodies). We therefore show that both water bodies and saturated soils can be identified successfully using this approach.     

Analysis of fatty acid composition of sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus using multivariate statistics

Fatty acids （FAs） provide energy and also can be used to trace trophic relationships among organisms. Sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus goes into a state of aestivation during warm summer months. We examined fatty acid profiles in aestivated and non-aestivated A. japonicus using multivariate analyses （PERMANOVA, MDS, ANOSIM, and SIMPER）. The results indicate that the fatty acid profiles of aestivated and non-aestivated sea cucumbers differed significantly. The FAs that were produced by bacteria and brown kelp contributed the most to the differences in the fatty acid composition of aestivated and non- aestivated sea cucumbers. Aestivated sea cucumbers may synthesize FAs from heterotrophic bacteria during early aestivation, and long chain FAs such as eicosapentaenoic （EPA） and docosahexaenoic acid （DHA） that produced from intestinal degradation, are digested during deep aestivation. Specific changes in the fatty acid composition of A. japonicus during aestivation needs more detailed study in the future.     

Palaeoclimatic studies in South Shetland Islands,Antarctica, based on numerous stratigraphic variables in lake sediments

The hitherto longest found lake sediment sequence on Byers Peninsula, Livingston Island, South Shetland Islands, was analysed with respect to lithology, chronology, diatoms, Pediastrum, pollen and spores, mosses, mineralogy, and sediment chemistry. During the ca. 5000 year long development the sediments were influenced by frequent tephra fall-outs. This volcanic impact played a major role in the lake's history during two periods, 4700–4600 and 2800–2500 BP, but was of importance during the lake's entire history with considerable influence on many of the palaeoenvironmentally significant indicators. The large and complex data set was analysed and zonated with different types of multivariate analysis. This resulted in a subdivision of the sequence into 8 time periods and 21 variables. Redundancy analysis (RDA) of this data set, both without and with the tephra periods, and with 4–6 of the variables as explanatory environmental variables, reveal that climatic/environmental signals are detectable. The palaeoclimatic picture that emerged out of the tephra noise suggests that the first 100 years were characterized by mild, humid conditions. This was followed by a less mild and humid climate until ca. 4000 BP when a gradual warming seems to have started, coupled with increased humidity. These mild and humid conditions seem to have reached an optimum slightly after 3000 BP. At ca. 2500 BP a distinct climatic deterioration occurred with colder and drier conditions and long seasons with ice cover. This arid, cold phase probably reached its optimum conditions at ca. 1500 BP, when slightly warmer conditions might have prevailed for a while. Except for the modern sample with rather mild climate, the last 1400 years seem to have been fairly arid and cold, and the effects of the frequent volcanic activity during this period is only vaguely seen in the records.     

小块体重的多元线性回归方程在锡铁山铅锌矿床储量计算中的应用

从锡铁山铅锌矿床小块体重样品原始测定数据入手，运用数学地质中的回归分析，建立了本矿床的小块体重多元线性回归方程，为矿床储量计算提供了科学参数。利用回归方程法计算小块体重进而可以推广到所有贱金属矿床的储量计算中。     

INTERNATIONAL HYDROLOGICAL DECADE / WORKING GROUP ON “THE INFLUENCE OF MAN ON THE HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE”

Abstract

Floods, as extreme hydrological phenomena, can be described by more than one correlated characteristic, such as peak, volume and duration. These characteristics should be jointly considered since they are generally not independent. For an ungauged site, univariate regional flood frequency analysis (FA) provides a limited assessment of flood events. A recent study proposed a procedure for regional FA in a multivariate framework. This procedure represents a multivariate version of the index-flood model and is based on copulas and multivariate quantiles. The performance of the proposed procedure was evaluated by simulation. However, the model was not tested on a real-world case study data. In the present paper, practical aspects are investigated jointly for flood peak (Q) and volume (V) of a dataset from the Côte-Nord region in the province of Quebec, Canada. The application of the proposed procedure requires the identification of the appropriate marginal distribution, the estimation of the index flood and the selection of an appropriate copula. The results of the case study show that the regional bivariate FA procedure performed well. This performance depends strongly on the performance of the two univariate models and, more specifically, the univariate model of Q. The results show also the impact of the homogeneity of the region on the performance of the univariate and bivariate models.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis     

Analysis of the effect of geology, soil properties, and land use on groundwater quality using multivariate statistical and GIS methods

The regional survey of groundwater used as a small water supply system was performed to know the effect of geology, soil properties and land use on groundwater quality at Nonsan City, Korea. A total of 126 groundwater samples were collected and analyzed at the study area. The multivariate statistical methods, principal components analysis and discriminant analysis, and GIS technique were used for the quantitative interpretation of groundwater quality. The study area is mainly composed of Precambrian gneiss, Jurassic granite, and Cretaceous volcanics, and metasedimentary rocks of the Ogcheon zone. The land use was grouped as paddy, upland, grassland, resident, point source, industrial area, and water system. The soil properties were classified as 4 major groups, Entisols, Alfisols, Inceptisols, and Ultisols, by the degree of development, and reclassified as 11 subgroups. The modified and simplified geologic map, soil map, and land use map were made by using ARCGIS soft-ware. The area of geology, soil property, and land use affecting the groundwater quality for each well were also calculated by ARCGIS soft-ware to acquire the quantitative parameters for multivariate statistical analysis. The monitoring results of groundwater in the study area showed that 13%-21% of the groundwater samples exceeded the portable water guideline and the main causes were turbidity, bacteria, arsenic and nitrate-N. The spatial distribution of each component showed the close relationship between groundwater quality and geology reflecting the topography, land use.     

广西中短期极端温度客观预报方法研究

利用欧洲中心(ECMWF)数值预报产品和常规资料,应用MOS预报方法和多元线性回归技术,研究建立了广西90个站1~7d的最高、最低温度预报方程,试报检验效果较好,预报结果在大多数情况下是可用的或是可参考的,为业务提供了有效的省级客观预报指导产品,对误差特点进行了分析并提出了改进方法。     

矿化富集中心地质因素多元统计分析及应用

本文导出了通过控矿地质因素逻辑信息法的研究来建立矿化富集中心数学模型的公式,使矿化富集中心数学模型与控矿地质因素定量地联系起来。还给出了单个矿化富集中心趋势面分析的数学模型和矿床空间分布模型。在这基础上,以某锡-多金属成矿带中某远景区的研究为例说明怎样应用矿化富集中心地质因素多元统计分析（逻辑信息法、趋势面分析、逐步回归分析和聚类分析）进行矿床统计预测。     

Spatial changes in a macrozoobenthic community along environmental gradients in a shallow brackish lagoon facing Sendai Bay, Japan

The spatial distribution, abundance, and assemblage structure of macrozoobenthos were examined at 45 stations in a brackish lagoon (Idoura Lagoon, Japan) to examine the animal–environmental relations in estuarine soft-bottom habitats. We found a total of 23 taxa; the polychaetes Heteromastus sp., Hediste spp., and Prionospio japonica and the isopod Cyathura muromiensis numerically dominated the community. Cluster analysis and one-way analysis of similarity (ANOSIM) identified seven groups of stations that had significantly different macrozoobenthic communities; these were subsequently consolidated into five habitat groups according to their association with environmental characteristics. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) showed that salinity, silt-clay content, and the oxidation–reduction potential (ORP) of the sediment strongly affected the macrozoobenthos distribution pattern in the lagoon, whereas other factors (e.g., relative elevation of the habitat and sediment organic content) had much weaker effects. Similarity percentages (SIMPER) procedures indicated that the polychaete Notomastus sp. and the bivalve Macoma contabulata were specific to habitats with low salinity and reduced mud, whereas the bivalve Nuttallia olivacea was specific to sandy bottoms. Heteromastus sp. and Hediste spp. achieved their highest densities in rather oxidized sediments. The acid-volatile sulfide (AVS) content in the sediment was suggested as another possible factor affecting macrozoobenthic density. Our results clearly demonstrate that macrozoobenthic assemblages in estuarine soft-bottoms have high spatial heterogeneity on a small scale (e.g., hundreds of meters) related to physical and chemical environmental changes. Our data also suggested the importance of sediment redox condition (e.g., ORP and AVS content) and sediment grain size as structuring factors in estuarine soft-bottom communities as well as the salinity in the habitat.