Modelling future conditions in the degraded semi-arid estuary of Australia's largest river using ecosystem states

Over the last ten years, there has been a major decline in the condition of the Coorong, the estuary for Australia's largest river system, the River Murray. This decline is due to prolonged drought combined with past management of the Murray-Darling Basin. In order to successfully manage the estuary in the future, predictions are needed to evaluate the effect of possible management actions on the Coorong ecosystem under a variety of climatic scenarios. The alternative stable state concept can be extended to non-equilibrium systems, allowing for modelling of condition. Rather than constraining the definition of alternative states to those that are stable, we identify a suite of ecosystem states that occur naturally, but also include those that arise during the decline of the system. Eight distinct states were defined, with thresholds between them based on a combination of environmental characteristics associated with co-occurring biota. Threshold values for environmental characteristics define the transition rules between states. Mapping these states allows us to characterise the condition of the estuary in both space and time. The distribution of these states, and the diversity of states supported can be used to create an ecosystem condition index. By calculating the value of the index over time, the trajectory of ecosystem condition merges, and predictions can be made about future condition, should the current situation continue. This trajectory modelling can then form a baseline against which to evaluate possible management actions under a variety of climatic scenarios to identify those most likely to improve the condition of the Coorong.     

Temporal changes in benthic communities of seagrass beds impacted by a tsunami in the Andaman Sea,Thailand

Seagrass beds are susceptible to various natural and human-induced disturbances. Disturbances affect not only seagrasses, but also the abundance and diversity of associated macrofaunal communities. The Andaman Sea coast of Thailand was heavily affected by the tsunami of December 26, 2004. To examine its impact on seagrass macrofaunal communities, we compared the abundance, diversity and taxa composition by quantitative samplings in 2001 (before the tsunami) and in 2005 and 2006 (after the tsunami). Macrobenthic animals and sediments were collected from vegetated and nonvegetated areas of two sites that had received different levels of tsunami disturbances. A large decline in abundance and diversity was observed in the nonvegetated areas after the tsunami, whereas an increase was observed in the vegetated areas. The magnitude of decline and subsequent recovery of abundance and diversity of macrobenthic animals in nonvegetated areas were similar between the two sites, suggesting that their temporal changes were not solely related to the magnitude of the tsunami disturbance. Similarity of the benthic animals differed greatly between 2001 and 2005–2006 at the nonvegetated areas, whereas it varied less among the 3 years at the seagrass-vegetated areas. This study demonstrated that the presence of seagrass vegetation alters the patterns of temporal variation in macrofaunal assemblages and subsequent recovery processes following a tsunami.     

毕节市北部岩溶地下水水化学特征及影响因素的多元统计分析

本文利用层次聚类分析和因子分析两种多元统计方法探讨了贵州省毕节市岩溶地下水水化学组分特征及影响因素。结果表明:研究区地下水组分浓度变化范围较大,具有明显的空间变异性,其受到地理因素、水岩作用过程、土壤等自然因素、人类活动的影响。这四个影响因素能够解释地下水水化学组分82%的特征,其中,水岩作用过程和人类活动是主要影响因素。地下水中HCO3-、SO42-、Ca2+和Mg2+主要来源于碳酸盐岩矿物的溶解,同时也受到人类采煤活动的影响;Cl-、K+、Na+和NO3-则主要受到人类活动,特别是农业化肥、粪肥、农药施用和生活污水排放等因素的影响。本研究有助于深化对西南岩溶地下水水化学特征的理解,有助于有效预测岩溶地下水污染物来源,且对岩溶区水资源的合理开发利用具有积极的指导意义。     

基于逻辑回归模型的环北京地区土地退化态势分析

以环北京地区为研究区域,从土地利用类型变化和农用地质量下降两个方面分析了环北京地区土地退化状况,并利用逻辑回归模型分析了土地退化与气候、地貌、植被、土壤、人口、土地利用变化、社会经济因子之间关系,探讨土地退化的发展趋势。研究结果表明,风蚀土地是环北京地区土地退化的主要类型,主要分布在监测区内蒙古高原西北部、坝上高原北部及阴山北部地区,从监测区的西北到东南方向,土地退化数量逐渐减少;由牧草地退化而增加沙地是土地利用类型变化造成退化的重要类型,主要集中在浑善达克沙地监测区。基于建立的沙地增加、风蚀土地和水蚀土地逻辑回归模型,年均降雨量和土壤有机质对环北京地区沙地增加的影响最强,沙地增加最可能的区域将主要分布在浑善达克沙地的边缘地带和科尔沁沙地的东部区域;NDVI和土壤有机质对环北京地区风蚀土地影响最强,风蚀土地最可能发生的区域集中在浑善达克沙地南部;NDVI、坡度和土壤湿度对环北京地区水蚀土地影响最强,水蚀土地最可能发生的区域集中在监测区的东南部,并且所预测的最可能发生土地退化的区域与已存在的退化土地区域具有一定的相关性。通过以上分析,最后提出了环北京地区生态环境建设的建议。     

PRODUCTIVITY OF AMERICAN PH.D.-GRANTING DEPARTMENTS OF GEOGRAPHY

Reviews of geographic software in this article:

DEMO-GRAPHICS: WORLD POPULATIONS AND PROJECTIONS.

ESP

GAUSS.

CEMODEL S. Damus

LIMDEP. William H. Greene

MICROSTAT 4.1

OTIS

PCIPS. (Personal Computer Image Processing System). H.J. Meyers and R. Bernstein.

REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES (RATS)

SPSS/PC+

URBAN DATA MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE (UDMS)     

西昆仑塔什库尔干沉积变质型铁矿基于GIS的多元信息成矿预测

本文在全面总结以往地质和勘探报告等资料的基础上,重点对赋存于下元古界布伦阔勒群地层中的沉积变质型铁矿进行研究,从成矿地质背景分析入手,以区域成矿学理论和典型矿床剖析为指导,总结成矿规律,在GIS软件平台上对多元化信息进行成矿有利分析,运用证据权重法结合网格单元法的矿产预测方法,对西昆仑塔什库尔干地区沉积变质型铁矿资源进行成矿预测研究。对沉积变质型铁床圈定了A类远景区3处,B类靶区5处,C类远景区2处。     

统计权重矩阵法在雷达估测降水集成中的应用

Z～R关系法和6种雷达雨量计联合法反演的区域降水量与雨量计观测得到的降水场存在较大的误差,将这7种降水估测结果作为信息源,采用统计权重矩阵法对上述7种反演结果进行集成分析,提出了一种改进雷达估测降水的方法。结果表明:在被集成资料中,Z～R关系法估测的降雨场具有明显的偏低现象,精度最差,6种雷达雨量计联合法的估测精度明显优于Z～R关系法。通过统计权重矩阵集成后,精度比集成前所有方法均有明显提高,尤其是降水场分布形势和降水中心的强度都与雨量计场非常吻合。集成得到的降水空间分布场能够较真实地反映地面的降水情况,可以在估测区域降水量中进行业务试用。     

基于多元数据的城市工业布局气候适宜性评估——以淄博为例

本文以淄博市城市发展战略规划（2017—2030年）为例,开展了基于多元数据的城市工业布局气候适宜性评估。基于气象、遥感、环保等多元资料,对城市规划密切相关的风环境、热环境、大气环境等进行了综合分析。结果表明：研究区主导风向和风速大小存在一定空间差异,北部的桓台和临淄的主导风路径多以东—西为主,其余地区以南—北路径为主,临淄的东部地区和淄川的中部地区为常年风速大值区,而周村、张店的大部分地区和博山的南部区域为风速小值区;城市热岛范围随时间扩张明显,以两轴区域为核心,呈蔓延式发展,较强以上等级热岛面积由2009年的405 km2发展至2016年的918 km2,其中张店区的增幅速度最快;敏感性模拟试验显示,易在山前出现污染汇聚带,PM2.5污染物高浓度主要分布在淄博的中北部平原地区,而市域北部和东部区域的污染扩散条件相对较好,各区域工业排放大气污染物的扩散特征主要受不同区域的主导风影响,其中淄川北部与张店南部的污染物扩散易对整个中心城区产生较大影响。综合考虑以上风环境、热环境、大气环境的分析结果,将规划区进行大气环境敏感区等级划分,明确了5类区域的工业布局气候适宜性,从改善局地气候与大气环境角度提出规划建议,为合理配置土地功能、优化工业布局提供了科学支撑。     

金蟾山金矿地球化学原生晕异常特征及找矿意义

文章通过对金蟾山金矿矿区地球化学原生晕的统计分析、微量元素异常等值线图分析、不同类型岩石统计及微量元素特征分析,认为矿区各微量元素均满足正态分布,最佳微量元素指示元素为Au,Cu,Hg,Bi;重要微量元素指示元素为Pb,Ag,As;Zn,W,Mo,Mn也可起到一定的指示作用;金矿脉的综合轴向分带序列为:Mo-Cu-Au...     

石家庄高温闷热天气气候特征与预报方法

针对近年来频繁发生的高温闷热天气,应用石家庄地区17个站近29年的气温、相对湿度和市区8个自动站气温观测资料,采用EOF方法,分析了高温、闷热日数分布特征。结果表明：石家庄地区高温、闷热分布可由气候平均场和第一、第二特征场合成而得,前两个特征场累积方差达80％以上。纬度、海拔高度、地形与高温闷热分布密切相关,城市热岛效应对高温分布的影响可以通过第一特征场反映出来。高温、闷热的第一、第二特征向量场时间系数是日际变化量,它与石家庄市单站风、气温、本区南北向和东西向气压差密切相关,可根据单站要素预报,用回归方程计算得到,据此构成高温、闷热分布预报的EOF方法。经统计检验、拟合检验及预报检验。该方法取得了较为满意的效果,并可投入业务化。