Spatio-temporal variation prediction on Cd content in the rice grains from Northern Zhejiang Plain during 2014–2019 based on high-precision soil geochemical data

Journal of Geographical Sciences - In recent years, Cadmium (Cd) pollution has been found in many soil geochemical surveys in Northern Zhejiang Plain, a crucial rice production area in East China,...     

Effective Graphic Features for Multivariate Symbol Mapping

Abstract

Various patterns of cartographic multivariate symbols (MSs) have been developed to work efficiently with objective symbol mapping. One such MS pattern is composed of a graph that uses spatial data to represent statistical data. A preliminary study revealed major problems with users’ perceptions and understanding of the symbol. These problems present obstacles to the presentation objectives. We are therefore interested in studying the human factors that contribute to the visual perception of graph symbols. We predict that the graph symbols currently in use are too complex for viewers to fully understand what they are intended to represent. This research aims to study the mechanisms and behaviours of human visual perception that are necessary to understand cartography MSs and to determine a more effective prototype symbol that presents and conveys information to viewers more efficiently. The prototype design is based on a basic cartographic symbol and includes the characteristics and properties of the original patterns of graph symbols via a study of their pros and cons. Graphic structures and properties were modified to create a more effective symbol.     

Farms in a Finnish village (Levanto) 1787–1916

Kampp, Aa. H. & Rikkinen, Kalevi, 1973: Farms in a Finnish Village (Levanto) 1787–1916. Geografisk Tidsskrift 72: 18–32. København, September 30, 1973.

The paper is a case study on a South-Finnish village as to number and size of holdings from the two-course rotation system in the 18th century to full reallotment in 1916.     

Towards a new methodological framework for the delimitation of rural and urban areas: a case study of Serbia

Abstract: Identification of urban and rural areas has been a widely present topic in the past decades, both in scientific research and in the policy and practice of spatial/regional development and territorial governance. The internationally accepted OECD definition does not produce appropriate results that are able to include the multidimensionality of these territories. In this context, the aim of this paper is the analysis and selection of relevant criteria and indicators of urbanity/rurality that may be significant for the establishment of a methodological framework for identifying urban and rural areas in Serbia. Multivariate analysis (PCA, FA and CA) was used to group local self-government units (LSGU) in Serbia that share similar characteristics. The research resulted in five types of areas which indicate that rural and urban areas in Serbia are very diverse in terms of physiogeographical, socio-economic and functional characteristics. The results of this paper offer a more detailed analysis based on scientifically and empirically selected indicators and can be applied in the practice of spatial and urban planning, and in the adaptation of strategic development documents at the regional or national level.     

THE OTHER BURGESS MODEL

In addition to his famous concentric-zone model of urban form, Ernest W. Burgess in 1929 outlined an altitudinal-zone model. It proposed a positive relationship in “hills cities” between the socioeconomic status of residents and the elevations at which they live. This article suggests a theoretical rationale for this “other Burgess model” based on the role of amenities in contemporary residential choice. Its performance compares favorably to that of competing models in an empirical test in cities selected to approximate as closely as possible the conditions that it assumes. [Key words: amenities, E. W. Burgess, urban form.]     

Suspended load estimation using L1-fuzzy regression,L2-fuzzy regression and MARS-fuzzy regression models

ABSTRACT

The problem of estimation of suspended load carried by a river is an important topic for many water resources projects. Conventional estimation methods are based on the assumption of exact observations. In practice, however, a major source of natural uncertainty is due to imprecise measurements and/or imprecise relationships between variables. In this paper, using the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) technique, a novel fuzzy regression model for imprecise response and crisp explanatory variables is presented. The investigated fuzzy regression model is applied to forecast suspended load by discharge based on two real-world datasets. The accuracy of the proposed method is compared with two well-known parametric fuzzy regression models, namely, the fuzzy least-absolutes model and the fuzzy least-squares model. The comparison results reveal that the MARS-fuzzy regression model performs better than the other models in suspended load estimation for the particular datasets. This comparison is done based on four goodness-of-fit criteria: the criterion based on similarity measure, the criterion based on absolute errors and the two objective functions of the fuzzy least-absolutes model and the fuzzy least-squares model. The proposed model is general and can be used for modelling natural phenomena whose available observations are reported as imprecise rather than crisp.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor H. Aksoy     

Observational and predictive uncertainties for multiple variables in a spatially distributed hydrological model

In this study, uncertainty in model input data (precipitation) and parameters is propagated through a physically based, spatially distributed hydrological model based on the MIKE SHE code. Precipitation uncertainty is accounted for using an ensemble of daily rainfall fields that incorporate four different sources of uncertainty, whereas parameter uncertainty is considered using Latin hypercube sampling. Model predictive uncertainty is assessed for multiple simulated hydrological variables (discharge, groundwater head, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture). Utilizing an extensive set of observational data, effective observational uncertainties for each hydrological variable are assessed. Considering not only model predictive uncertainty but also effective observational uncertainty leads to a notable increase in the number of instances, for which model simulation and observations are in good agreement (e.g., 47% vs. 91% for discharge and 0% vs. 98% for soil moisture). Effective observational uncertainty is in several cases larger than model predictive uncertainty. We conclude that the use of precipitation uncertainty with a realistic spatio‐temporal correlation structure, analyses of multiple variables with different spatial support, and the consideration of observational uncertainty are crucial for adequately evaluating the performance of physically based, spatially distributed hydrological models.     

阿拉善高原荒漠植被组成分布特征及其环境解释Ⅰ.典型荒漠植被分布格局的环境解释

阿拉善高原是亚洲中部荒漠亚区的一个植物地理区域,特殊的地理位置和严酷的气候条件形成了该区独特的植被组成。目前由于气候的干暖化、黑河断流、森林草原的过度开采利用以及人口的激增等,给当地的农牧业发展、生态环境的可持续发展和利用带来严重障碍。如何有效地管理和利用当地的草场资源是当地政府和科研人员面临的首要问题。通过分析环境因子和植被分布的相互关系,来确定影响该区草场资源分布的主要环境因子。通过对52个样地的植被调查资料进行分析,发现所调查到的70种植物包括16个科和46个属,其中一年生植物占7.1%,灌木和小灌木占52.9%。种数最多的4个科是豆科(Leguminosae)、蓼科(Polygonaceae)、禾本科(Gramineae)和菊科(Compositae),分别占到总种数的20.0%、15.7%、14.3%和14.3%。高位芽和地面芽是主要的生活型,这代表了沙漠植物典型的生活型谱。采用二歧双向指示种分析（TWINSPAN）,将所调查植被分为6个类型,每个植被类型及相应的土壤特征代表了特定的地理单元。此外采用除趋势分析（DCA）和典范对应分析（CCA）方法研究了植被分布和环境变量二者的关系。环境因子主要有29个:其中包括18个土壤因子、8个气候因子和3个地理位置因子。DCA和CCA分析的结果一致,都表明植被分布和环境因子之间相关性较强。其中,CCA的第一轴主要代表了土壤有机质、全氮、沙黏粒含量、海拔、Kira湿度指数以及相对湿度,而CCA第二轴主要和Cl-、K+、Mg2+和电导率相关。这两轴在解释植物-环境关系的过程中累积贡献率达到60%,说明前两轴代表的环境因子是决定该区荒漠植被分布的主要因子。这一结果阐明了阿拉善干旱荒漠区植被分布的独特性,以及与关键环境因子之间的作用机制,这为该区域荒漠草场的恢复和管理提供了一定理论基础。     

湛江市土壤有机氯农药残留状况及空间分布特征

选取位于中国大陆最南端的湛江市为研究区域,对该市土壤进行了系统采样分析,测定了61个表层土壤样品中的17种有机氯农药的含量。利用多元地统计和GIS相结合的方法,研究了17种有机氯农药的残留状况及空间分布情况。结果表明,17种有机氯农药在42个土壤样品中均有不同程度的检出,其中p,p'-DDE检出率为100%,3种有机氯农药检出率在90%以上。其中六六六和滴滴涕残留较普遍,六六六未达到污染水平,有一个土壤样品滴滴涕超过国家土壤环境质量一级标准。分析显示,近期可能仍有新的六六六输入土壤环境,而滴滴涕则主要来自过去施用农药的残留。主成分分析显示17种有机氯农药可以由6个主成分反映,分别对应于工业HCH和林丹的使用、农药使用习惯以及当地病虫害特点等。采用克里格插值法对有机氯农药在研究区的空间分布进行了研究,结果表明不同有机氯农药在研究区分布存在很大差异。     

气候变化和人类活动对长江中游径流量变化影响分析

利用累积距平、Mann-Kendall检验和有序聚类方法,对长江中游5个水文站1961-2014年径流量进行突变检验,并应用降雨-径流多元线性经验模型,定量评估长江中游气候变化和人类活动对径流量变化的贡献率。研究结果表明：径流量多年来呈线性减少的趋势,随降水量的变化而变化。径流突变点为1968年和2006年,1969-2005年枝城、沙市、监利、城陵矶和螺山站控制流域人类活动对径流变化影响的贡献率分别为85.68%、50.89%、84.78%、89.81%和68.39%;2006-2014年人类活动的贡献率分别为88.40%、59.47%、82.86%、80.03%、63.63%,人类活动的贡献率高于气候变化。