多元统计在化探数据分析中的应用——以沂源县鲁村镇崮山村地区土壤化探测量为例

地球化学元素的多元统计分析可以推测地球化学元素在复杂的成矿过程中的组合及演化特征,从而为预测找矿提供有用的微观信息。应用多元统计方法,对沂源县鲁村镇崮山村地区土壤、岩石地球化学测量数据进行研究分析,得出:与中国东部岩石丰度对比,研究区岩石背景特征为Au,Ag,Pb,Sb,As,Hg元素富集,Cu,Zn贫化;与山东省土壤背景值对比,研究区土壤背景值中Au,Ag,Cu,Pb,Zn元素都出现了不同程度的富集。区内成矿元素组合特征表现为:Ag,Pb,Zn元素之间相关性较强,其中Ag、Pb元素之间的相关性最强,反应出了组合成矿的可能性;而Au与其他元素几乎不具相关性,Cu元素与Ag,Pb,Zn元素均具有弱相关性。通过因子分析得出成矿元素的富集与矿化过程大致可以划分3个阶段:Ag-Pb-Zn元素组合的富集与矿化;Cu元素的富集与矿化;Au元素的富集与矿化;反映出了该区多期富集或蚀变矿化特点。利用因子得分圈定元素组合异常,通过异常分析,并结合地质背景、地质构造特征,最终圈定找矿有利靶区,为进一步找矿提供了科学依据。     

遥感技术在矿致滑坡成因分析中的应用

以湖南省怀化市泸阳镇中型岩质滑坡为例,基于多期次多元高分辨率数据,利用遥感技术研究滑坡的地质灾害各项背景因素,发现怀化滑坡主要是由山体破碎和矿山持续不规范开采共同造成的地质灾害.研究结果表明遥感技术可以在不接触此危险源的情况下直接进行定性和定量的滑坡成因分析.     

Combined effect of climate change and human activities on the hydrological processes of an urban river: case study of the Xiaoqing River,China

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study is to reveal statistical characteristics and exceedance probability of discharge under the combined effect of climate change and human activities. The study is conducted in the Xiaoqing River in Jinan, China, based on data of discharge, land-use types and precipitation from the period 1970–2016. A multivariate joint probability distribution of the data is established to test the univariable, bivariable and trivariable change points. These are then used to calculate and analyse the risk probability of discharge exceeding the specific values under different conditions of precipitation and land-use type. The results show that the change point calculated by trivariate joint distribution can reduce the disturbance of the change point obtained with the univariable or bivariable approach and reflect the changes of various factors in the hydrological processes more objectively. When the land-use type is taken into consideration, the trivariate distribution can reflect the variation of hydrological processes more reasonably.     

Reach-scale bankfull channel types can exist independently of catchment hydrology

Reach-scale morphological channel classifications are underpinned by the theory that each channel type is related to an assemblage of reach- and catchment-scale hydrologic, topographic, and sediment supply drivers. However, the relative importance of each driver on reach morphology is unclear, as is the possibility that different driver assemblages yield the same reach morphology. Reach-scale classifications have never needed to be predicated on hydrology, yet hydrology controls discharge and thus sediment transport capacity. The scientific question is: do two or more regions with quantifiable differences in hydrologic setting end up with different reach-scale channel types, or do channel types transcend hydrologic setting because hydrologic setting is not a dominant control at the reach scale? This study answered this question by isolating hydrologic metrics as potential dominant controls of channel type. Three steps were applied in a large test basin with diverse hydrologic settings (Sacramento River, California) to: (1) create a reach-scale channel classification based on local site surveys, (2) categorize sites by flood magnitude, dimensionless flood magnitude, and annual hydrologic regime type, and (3) statistically analyze two hydrogeomorphic linkages. Statistical tests assessed the spatial distribution of channel types and the dependence of channel type morphological attributes by hydrologic setting. Results yielded 10 channel types. Nearly all types existed across all hydrologic settings, which is perhaps a surprising development for hydrogeomorphology. Downstream hydraulic geometry relationships were statistically significant. In addition, cobble-dominated uniform streams showed a consistent inverse relationship between slope and dimensionless flood magnitude, an indication of dynamic equilibrium between transport capacity and sediment supply. However, most morphological attributes showed no sorting by hydrologic setting. This study suggests that median hydraulic geometry relations persist across basins and within channel types, but hydrologic influence on geomorphic variability is likely due to local influences rather than catchment-scale drivers. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

用多元门限回归模型作区域夏季旱涝预测

考虑了气候系统中一些变量突变时对预测关系的改变作用，用多元门限回归模型的建模方法建立长江下游地区夏季旱涝趋势预测模型。拟合效果较理想，用１９９４－１９９５年的独立资料检验，预测结果与实况较为接近。     

东昆仑东段都兰地区地球化学特征及其成矿意义 ——基于大比例尺微沟系（土壤）测量工作

在提取东昆仑东段都兰地区11个1:2.5万地球化学测量项目16种共同测试元素原始数据的基础上,进行了数理指标及多元统计分析,以期从整体角度为该区寻找原生矿床及后期研究提供表生地球化学依据。分析显示：Au元素以强丰度背景拟合值、高剔除比率、高离散分布特征、强叠加值为特征,为区内主要的成矿元素,其次As、Sb、Cu、Ni、Cr、Co、Ag、Pb、Zn等元素丰度背景拟合值与剔除比率高,高强数据多,可作为第二类成矿元素;高温热液元素为背景的稀有稀土元素组合,浓集系数、丰度背景拟合值均表现为富集曲线,但变异系数与叠加作用较弱,可作为第三类成矿元素。通过多元统计分析,将全区元素划分为Ag-Zn-Pb、Cr-Co-Ni-Cu、Y-La-Sn、As-Mo-Sb、Au、W-Bi等六类,并且由各元素的因子得分极值绘制了地球化学分区图,从表生地球化学角度阐明了有利的成矿区段。     

Combining otolith elemental signatures with multivariate analytical models to verify the migratory pattern of Japanese Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus niphonius) in the southern Yellow Sea

Japanese Spanish mackerel, Scomberomorus niphonius, is a commercially important, highly migratory species that is widely distributed throughout the northwestern Pacific region. However, its life history and migratory patterns are only partially understood. This study used otolith chemistry to investigate the migratory pattern of S. niphonius in the southern Yellow Sea, an important fishing ground. Transverse sections of otoliths from 15 age-1 spawning or spent individuals, comprising up to one complete migration cycle, were analyzed from the core to the margin by using laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. The ratios of the element to Ca were integrated with microstructural analysis to produce age-related elemental profiles. Combining multi-elemental analysis of otolith composition with multivariate analytical models, we quantified structural changes in otolith chemistry profiles. Results revealed there were diverse changing patterns of otolith chemistry profiles for detected elements and the elements of Na, Mg, Sr and Ba were important for the chronological signal. Five clusters were identified through chronological clustering, representing the five life stages from the early stage to the spawning stage. Variation of Ba:Ca ratio was most informative, showing a step-decreasing pattern in the first four stages and a rebound in the spawning stage. These results support the hypothesized migratory pattern of S. niphonius: hatching and spending their early life in the coastal sandy ridges system of the southern Yellow Sea, migrating northeastward and offshore for feeding during juvenile stage, aggregating in early October and migrating outward to the Jeju Island for wintering, and returning to the coastal waters for spawning. This study demonstrated the value of life-history related otolith chemistry profiles combined with multivariate analytical models was a means to verify the migration patterns of S. niphonius at regional scales with potential application in fisheries assessment and management.     

台风灾害极值预测——模式和应用

台风灾害是影响中国2.5亿人民生命财产和经济发展的重大问题。鉴于现行台风防灾减灾领域存在的问题,提出了"多维复合极值分布"理论及相应的"双层嵌套多目标概率模式",并应用于美国卡特列娜飓风巨灾预测和验证、上海设防标准、杭州湾特大超高水位,三峡设计洪水的概率预测及风险分析,显示了新理论的科学性、先进性和实用性。     

三种■属(Seriola)鱼类表型特征比较分析

为全面了解■属鱼类表型性状的种间差异,描述了我国养殖的黄条■(Seriola lalandi)、高体■(Seriola dumerili)和五条■(Seriola quinqueradiata)的形态学特征,测量了群体的表型数据,通过单因素方差分析、通径分析、主成分分析、判别分析和聚类分析等多元统计方法,对3种■鱼共计190尾样品的形态种质特征和可量可数性状进行了比较研究。单因素方差分析显示,除叉长/体长(FL/SL)、体长/尾柄长SL/PL)、头长/眼间距(HL/ID)和下颌长/上颌长(LJL/UJL)外,其余9个指标均存在显著性差异(P<0.05)。通径分析显示,黄条■的体长(SL)、体高(BH)、尾柄长(PL)和尾柄高(PD)是主要影响其体质量的4个表型性状;高体■的体长(SL)、体高(BH)、眼间距(ID)、下颌长(LJL)和眼后头长(POL)是主要影响其体质量的5个表型性状;五条■的体高(BH)、下颌长(LJL)和全长(TL)是主要影响其体质量的3个表型性状。主成分分析构建了4个主成分,其中第一项主成分贡献率为34.974%,其他3个主成分的贡献率依次为23.897%、...